Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, September 7, 2002 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, September 5, 2002 Com 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 *CASH* SEP 02 DEC 02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 MAR MAY JUL SEP 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 DEC MAR JUL DEC Total 09/04/02 Soybeans 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 *CASH* SEP 02 NOV 02 JAN 03 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 AUG 03 SEP 03 NOV 03 JAN 04 NOV 04 Total 09/04/02 Soybean Meal 09/05/02 *CASH* 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 Total 09/04/02 August 30,2002 DEMAND FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS WAY OFF • Cheese consumption weak. • Nonfat dry milk way down, • Butter down, too. USDA’s recent report on U.S. demand for milk and dairy prod ucts was fairly anemic. It sug gests demand for cheese, particu Open 2696 2780 03 03 03 03 2842 2864 2836 2676 2544 2590 2620 2400 03 04 04 04 Volume Open„lnt 66113 492484 Open 5630 5524 5544 5552 5530 5526 5490 5340 5270 5290 5070 Volume Qpen_lnt 35208 197069 Open High Low Last 18850 18850 18850 1820 1748 1738 1733 1721 1711 1710 1700 1680 1645 1645 1711 Volume Qpen_lnt 25176 140179 larly pizza cheese, is off relative to the strong growth experienced over the last decade. Demand for nonfat dry milk is off by a third. Butter consumption is down 4 percent, and fluid milk consump tion is neutral. These numbers, however, are no surprise to most market watchers. In fact, I would argue High 2794 2724 2810 Low 2794 2680 2762 2866 2884 2862 2690 2822 2842 2826 2664 2540 2590 2620 2400 2560 2604 2620 2400 High 5680 5684 5580 5600 5610 5590 5584 5520 5410 5320 5330 5070 LOW 5680 5600 5492 5512 5524 5510 5510 5460 5340 5250 5290 5070 1812 1748 1732 1732 1721 1710 1710 1700 1680 1645 1645 1711 1836 1774 1764 1760 1751 1739 1740 1728 1710 1664 1665 1711 Lean Hogs Date 09/04/02 *CASH* 09/05/02 Oct 02 09/05/02 Dec 02 09/05/02 Feb 03 09/05/02 Apr 03 09/05/02 May 03 09/05/02 Jun 03 Chge + 20 + 14 + 20 Last 2794 2720 2804 + 22 + 16 + 12 + 12 09/05/02 Jul 03 09/05/02 Aug 03 09/05/02 Oct 03 2864 2882 2856 2684 +2 unch unch +4 2554 2604 2620 2400 Composite Volume Open_lnt 09/04/02 10983 36098 Live Cattle Date 09/04/02 *CASH* 0 630063006300 09/05/02 Oct 02 6717 6815 6675 6805 09/05/02 Dec 02 7000 709769657092 09/05/02 Feb 03 7122718070777177 09/05/02 Apr 03 7195 726571557257 09/05/02 Jun 03 6715 678067006777 09/05/02 Aug 03 6767 684567456845 09/05/02 Oct 03 6950 695069506950 Chge + 30 + 22 + 44 + 52 + 52 + 54 +54 + 44 + 34 + 22 +4O unch Last 5680 5654 5572 5594 5604 5586 5582 5520 5400 5302 5330 5070 Composite Volume Open_lnt 09/04/02 11473 98135 Pork Bellies Date 09/04/02 *CASH* 0 530053005300 09/05/02 Feb 03 6420 650264106470 09/05/02 Mar 03 6435 647064106440 09/05/02 May 03 6620 663065306600 09/05/02 Jul 03 6620 662064106600 09/05/02 Aug 03 6510 651063506500 Chge + 50 1829 1773 1763 1760 1751 1737 1740 1721 1706 1657 1665 1711 Composite Volume Open_lnt 09/04/02 Oats 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 09/05/02 Total 09/04/02 that they are already built into existing milk price numbers. Translation: the new report on milk consumption should neither raise nor lower futures or cash prices for dairy commodities in Chicago. The demand numbers, called commercial disappearance, re flect the most recent three-month time period of April through June 2002. During this period, milk production in the U.S. grew 3 percent relative to the same pe riod a year ago. Stocks of all dairy products on a milk fat basis grew 14.3 percent, and imports on a milk fat basis fell 23.3 per cent. Thus, the supply of dairy prod ucts on a milkfat basis grew 4.1 percent. That compares to com mercial disappearance of all dairy products on a milkfat basis, which fell 0.6 percent. No wonder milk prices are declining! More specifically, demand for dairy products during the period April-June 2002, with changes „ Previous Previous Open High Low Last Cnee ~ . . * Volume Open_lnt 0 0 5938 16836 3729 13778 812 3284 247 997 94 388 134 592 0 340634063406 3175 329031303270 3542 367235053665 4235 429741754265 4900 492048454895 5770 580057505780 5982 599559605980 5890 594058805882 5640 565056175620 5200 525052005207 ~ w Previous Previous Open High Lo w Last Chge Vo|ume ope „ 0 0 6031 40471 3791 28806 669 16550 391 8087 489 3991 101 214 0 0 ~ „• ui t Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume ope „ 0 0 602 980 13 38 1057 618 Open *CASH* SEP 02 DEC 02 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 1910 1910 1852 1820 1790 Volume Open_lnt 1482 9850 relative to a year ago, are butter, down 3.8 percent; American cheese, up 3.2 percent; other cheese (mainly mozzarella), up 0.3 percent; nonfat dry milk, down 33.6 percent; and fluid milk products, up 0.3 percent. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta tistics also released estimates of U.S. city average retail prices for dairy products. The results are mixed. Some dairy products, such as butter and fluid milk, ad justed lower in relation to a sharp reduction in the cost of most dairy ingredients (mainly butter fat and protein). Whole milk in July fell 6.3 percent relative to a year ago. Butter retail prices in July fell 12.8 percent. Butter appears to be the most responsive in terms of the farm to-retail price spread. On the other hand, cheese and ice cream retail prices actually rose relative to a year ago. Natural cheese in July rose 5.6 percent, and ice cream rose 4.4 percent. You will recall that the main ingredient in -3 + 10 -13 -300 +33 +2O +5O ■lBO -110 High 2126 1970 1980 1910 1834 1790 Low 2126 1910 1904 1852 1820 1790 the production of ice cream, milkfat (cream), at the wholesale levels is about half what it was a year ago. Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA re cord sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week’s average costs of various ingredients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Penn sylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Com, No.2y 2.95 bu., 5.28 cwt. Wheat, N 0.2 3.25 bu., 5.42 cwt. Barley, N 0.3 1.71 bu., 3.66 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 1.7 bu., 5.30 cwt. Soybeans, No.l 5.49 bu., 9.16 cwt. Ear Corn 80.05 ton, 4.00 cwt. Alfalfa Hay 144.25 ton, 7.21 cwt. Mixed Hay 128.75 ton, 6.44 cwt. Timothy Hay 133.00 ton, 6.65 cwt. 21 160 6 52 2 9 1 19 1 14 1 6 Chge + 50 + 64 +5O + 36 +4 unch Last 2126 1970 1972 1906 1834 1790
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