Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, September 7, 2002
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, September 5, 2002
Com
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
*CASH*
SEP 02
DEC 02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
MAR
MAY
JUL
SEP
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
DEC
MAR
JUL
DEC
Total
09/04/02
Soybeans
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
*CASH*
SEP 02
NOV 02
JAN 03
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
JAN 04
NOV 04
Total
09/04/02
Soybean Meal
09/05/02
*CASH*
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
Total
09/04/02
August 30,2002
DEMAND FOR DAIRY
PRODUCTS WAY OFF
• Cheese consumption weak.
• Nonfat dry milk way down,
• Butter down, too.
USDA’s recent report on U.S.
demand for milk and dairy prod
ucts was fairly anemic. It sug
gests demand for cheese, particu
Open
2696
2780
03
03
03
03
2842
2864
2836
2676
2544
2590
2620
2400
03
04
04
04
Volume Open„lnt
66113 492484
Open
5630
5524
5544
5552
5530
5526
5490
5340
5270
5290
5070
Volume Qpen_lnt
35208 197069
Open High Low Last
18850 18850 18850
1820
1748
1738
1733
1721
1711
1710
1700
1680
1645
1645
1711
Volume Qpen_lnt
25176 140179
larly pizza cheese, is off relative
to the strong growth experienced
over the last decade. Demand for
nonfat dry milk is off by a third.
Butter consumption is down 4
percent, and fluid milk consump
tion is neutral.
These numbers, however, are
no surprise to most market
watchers. In fact, I would argue
High
2794
2724
2810
Low
2794
2680
2762
2866
2884
2862
2690
2822
2842
2826
2664
2540
2590
2620
2400
2560
2604
2620
2400
High
5680
5684
5580
5600
5610
5590
5584
5520
5410
5320
5330
5070
LOW
5680
5600
5492
5512
5524
5510
5510
5460
5340
5250
5290
5070
1812
1748
1732
1732
1721
1710
1710
1700
1680
1645
1645
1711
1836
1774
1764
1760
1751
1739
1740
1728
1710
1664
1665
1711
Lean Hogs
Date
09/04/02 *CASH*
09/05/02 Oct 02
09/05/02 Dec 02
09/05/02 Feb 03
09/05/02 Apr 03
09/05/02 May 03
09/05/02 Jun 03
Chge
+ 20
+ 14
+ 20
Last
2794
2720
2804
+ 22
+ 16
+ 12
+ 12
09/05/02 Jul 03
09/05/02 Aug 03
09/05/02 Oct 03
2864
2882
2856
2684
+2
unch
unch
+4
2554
2604
2620
2400
Composite Volume Open_lnt
09/04/02 10983 36098
Live Cattle
Date
09/04/02 *CASH* 0 630063006300
09/05/02 Oct 02 6717 6815 6675 6805
09/05/02 Dec 02 7000 709769657092
09/05/02 Feb 03 7122718070777177
09/05/02 Apr 03 7195 726571557257
09/05/02 Jun 03 6715 678067006777
09/05/02 Aug 03 6767 684567456845
09/05/02 Oct 03 6950 695069506950
Chge
+ 30
+ 22
+ 44
+ 52
+ 52
+ 54
+54
+ 44
+ 34
+ 22
+4O
unch
Last
5680
5654
5572
5594
5604
5586
5582
5520
5400
5302
5330
5070
Composite Volume Open_lnt
09/04/02 11473 98135
Pork Bellies
Date
09/04/02 *CASH* 0 530053005300
09/05/02 Feb 03 6420 650264106470
09/05/02 Mar 03 6435 647064106440
09/05/02 May 03 6620 663065306600
09/05/02 Jul 03 6620 662064106600
09/05/02 Aug 03 6510 651063506500
Chge
+ 50
1829
1773
1763
1760
1751
1737
1740
1721
1706
1657
1665
1711
Composite Volume Open_lnt
09/04/02
Oats
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
09/05/02
Total
09/04/02
that they are already built into
existing milk price numbers.
Translation: the new report on
milk consumption should neither
raise nor lower futures or cash
prices for dairy commodities in
Chicago.
The demand numbers, called
commercial disappearance, re
flect the most recent three-month
time period of April through
June 2002. During this period,
milk production in the U.S. grew
3 percent relative to the same pe
riod a year ago. Stocks of all
dairy products on a milk fat basis
grew 14.3 percent, and imports
on a milk fat basis fell 23.3 per
cent.
Thus, the supply of dairy prod
ucts on a milkfat basis grew 4.1
percent. That compares to com
mercial disappearance of all
dairy products on a milkfat basis,
which fell 0.6 percent. No wonder
milk prices are declining!
More specifically, demand for
dairy products during the period
April-June 2002, with changes
„ Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Cnee ~ . .
* Volume Open_lnt
0 0
5938 16836
3729 13778
812 3284
247 997
94 388
134 592
0 340634063406
3175 329031303270
3542 367235053665
4235 429741754265
4900 492048454895
5770 580057505780
5982 599559605980
5890 594058805882
5640 565056175620
5200 525052005207
~ w Previous Previous
Open High Lo w Last Chge Vo|ume ope „
0 0
6031 40471
3791 28806
669 16550
391 8087
489 3991
101 214
0 0
~ „• ui t Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume ope „
0 0
602 980
13 38
1057
618
Open
*CASH*
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
1910
1910
1852
1820
1790
Volume Open_lnt
1482 9850
relative to a year ago, are butter,
down 3.8 percent; American
cheese, up 3.2 percent; other
cheese (mainly mozzarella), up
0.3 percent; nonfat dry milk,
down 33.6 percent; and fluid
milk products, up 0.3 percent.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics also released estimates of
U.S. city average retail prices for
dairy products. The results are
mixed. Some dairy products,
such as butter and fluid milk, ad
justed lower in relation to a sharp
reduction in the cost of most
dairy ingredients (mainly butter
fat and protein). Whole milk in
July fell 6.3 percent relative to a
year ago. Butter retail prices in
July fell 12.8 percent.
Butter appears to be the most
responsive in terms of the farm
to-retail price spread. On the
other hand, cheese and ice cream
retail prices actually rose relative
to a year ago. Natural cheese in
July rose 5.6 percent, and ice
cream rose 4.4 percent. You will
recall that the main ingredient in
-3
+ 10
-13
-300
+33
+2O
+5O
■lBO
-110
High
2126
1970
1980
1910
1834
1790
Low
2126
1910
1904
1852
1820
1790
the production of ice cream,
milkfat (cream), at the wholesale
levels is about half what it was a
year ago.
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 2.95 bu., 5.28 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.25 bu., 5.42 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 1.71 bu., 3.66 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 1.7 bu., 5.30 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 5.49 bu., 9.16 cwt.
Ear Corn 80.05 ton, 4.00 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 144.25 ton, 7.21 cwt.
Mixed Hay 128.75 ton, 6.44 cwt.
Timothy Hay 133.00 ton, 6.65 cwt.
21 160
6 52
2 9
1 19
1 14
1 6
Chge
+ 50
+ 64
+5O
+ 36
+4
unch
Last
2126
1970
1972
1906
1834
1790