Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, August 24, 2002 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG. & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, August 22, 2002 Com ♦CASH* SEP 02 DEC 02 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 MAR 04 JUL 04 DEC 04 08/21/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 Total 08/21/02 Soybeans 08/21/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 *CASH* SEP 02 NOV 02 JAN 03 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 AUG 03 SEP 03 NOV 03 NOV 04 Total 08/21/02 Soybean Meal 08/21/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 *CASH* SEP 02 OCT 02 DEC 02 JAN 03 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 AUG 03 SEP 03 OCT 03 DEC 03 Total 08/21/02 Weekly Dairy Market Outlook Ken Bailey Penn State August 19,2002 Farm Milk Price Gets Squeezed • All-milk price hits season low. • Feed prices getting higher. • Cow numbers growing. Last week’s milk production report confirmed what the mar ket already knew, that the milk supply was growing. USDA’s milk production report indicated that the number of cows on farms in 20 select states was up from 7.745 million head in January to 7.786 million head in July. In fact, July saw growth of 7,000 head. Production per cow was also higher. This was bad news for the dairy markets, which reacted swiftly. Block cheese prices in Chicago fell from $1.1625 per pound on Monday, Aug. 12 to $1.13 per pound by Friday, Aug. High 2682 2610 2720 2776 2794 2792 2642 2532 2580 2600 2414 Open 2594 2706 2766 2782 2782 2642 2530 2580 2600 2414 Volume Qpen_lnt 88984 520351 High 5580 5510 5384 5420 5420 5410 5410 5370 5240 5150 5100 Open 5504 5380 5420 5420 5400 5390 5360 5240 5120 5100 Volume Open_lnt 78848 203382 Open High 18350 1777 1707 1685 1685 1673 1660 1662 1660 1640 1610 1605 1777 1707 1685 1682 1673 1660 1660 1660 1635 1610 1600 Volume Open_lnt 32191 136133 16. In addition, the futures mar kets showed additional weakness. As of Aug. 16, 2002, the Class 111 futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed an August price of $9.50 per CWT, a Sep tember price of $10.15 per CWT, and an October-December price of $10.50-$ll per CWT. On top of all this gloom is a steady rise in grain, meal, and al falfa hay prices. A severe drought in Canada and some parts of the U.S. Combelt are causing higher feed prices. At the Chicago Board of Trade, December corn rose from $2.20 per bushel earlier this year to $2.85 per bushel. Novem ber soybean futures rose from $4.62 per bushel earlier in the spring to close to $5.75 per bush el. And hay prices have nowhere to go but higher. Canada will likely keep more of their limited supplies of hay to feed their with ering herds. Last 2682 2604 2714 2774 2790 2790 2624 2516 2564 2590 2400 LOW 2682 2574 2676 2736 2760 2764 2616 2504 2564 2590 2396 Low 5580 5400 5302 5334 5360 5340 5350 5340 5240 5120 5100 Last 5580 5480 5376 5410 5412 5404 5404 5370 5240 5150 5100 Low 18350 1743 1681 1662 1661 1653 1642 1648 1638 1630 1598 1600 Last 18350 1763 1696 1683 1682 1672 1659 1661 1650 1635 1604 1605 All of this is resulting in a sig nificant drop in the milk-feed price ratio. That index, which measures the milk price relative to the cost of feed, fell from 3.0 in January 2002 and is forecasted to fall all the way to 2.0 by Septem ber. The all-milk price, which fell from $13.40 per CWT in January to $11.20 per CWT in July, is only expected to rise moderately the rest of the year, reaching $12.22 per CWT by December. Thus this slight gain will be offset by higher feed costs. So why are cow numbers in creasing when milk prices are falling to support levels? That is the big question. Cow numbers in July grew in 10 of 20 states. As a result, milk production grew 2.3 percent in these 20 select states in July. Milk production grew 15.6 percent in New Mexico, 6.3 per cent in California, 5.6 percent in Idaho, 4.9 percent in Ohio, and 4.4 percent in New York. Milk prices will likely not im prove significantly until cow numbers stabilize and go down. Lean Hogs Date 08/21/02 *CASH* 08/22/02 Oct 02 08/22/02 Dec 02 08/22/02 Feb 03 08/22/02 Apr 03 08/22/02 May 03 08/22/02 Jun 03 08/22/02 Jul 03 08/22/02 Aug 03 08/22/02 Oct 03 Chge +36 -6 -10 -10 -14 -12 -20 -20 -22 -20 -20 Composite Volume Open_lnt 08/21/02 6875 31621 Live Cattle Date 08/21/02 *CASH* 0 640064006400 unch 08/22/02 Aug 02 6560 659065506585 +4O 08/22/02 Oct 02 6752 682067456815 +6B 08/22/02 Dec 02 6980 706569707055 +B3 08/22/02 Feb 03 7137 721071207202 +6O 08/22/02 Apr 03 7240 730072157295 08/22/02 Jun 03 6770 681067606805 08/22/02 Aug 03 6815 6825 6805 6825 Chge + 73 -62 -34 -36 -36 -30 -16 -20 + 10 + 12 + 60 Composite VolumeOpenjnt 08/21/02 11408 93482 Pork Bellies Date 08/21/02 *CASH* 0 720072007200 -300 08/22/02 Aug 02 7000 702070007020 -40 08/22(02 Feb 03 6065 612060256092 +lO 08/22/02 Mar 03 6060 608560256040 +l5 08/22/02 May 03 6170 617561706170 +2O 08/22/02 Jul 03 6265 626562556255 -20 08/22/02 Aug 03 6200 620061906190 +9O Chge +250 -21 -16 -16 -13 -13 -8 -8 Composite Volume Open_lnt 08/21/02 327 970 Oats 08/21/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 08/22/02 -2 unch -6 -5 Total 08/21/02 „ f f Previous Previous Open H.gh Low Last Chge Vo , ume open Int 0 0 3373 17997 2912 10402 308 2082 161 610 38 152 77 241 4 100 0 35 2 2 0 435743574357 3465 355034603500 3510 355034753515 4297 434042604280 5000 501549574970 5760 578557355757 5925 592558955900 5880 590558705875 5590 559555555560 5175 518051505175 „ . , T Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|umeopen lnt 0 0 889 2257 6006 44207 2869 23331 1050 14308 ~ tt 1 ■ t w irL Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume ope „ |nt 0 0 10 23 313 909 0 27 1 1 3 10 0 . 0 Open *CASH* SEP 02 DEC 02 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 1804 1796 1774 1770 1740 Volume Open_lnt 997 11214 Westminster Livestock Hagerstown, Md. Report Supplied By Auction August 20,2002 SLAUGHTER COWS: 132 HEAD, STEADY. BREAKERS 38.00-45.00, BONERS 36.00-41.00, LEAN 31.00-36.00, THIN 31.00 DOWN. BULLS: 12 HEAD, 2.00 LOWER. YG+NI 1500-1700 LBS. 49.00-51.00, YG+N2 1200-2000 LBS. 40.00-48.00. FED STEERS: 26 HEAD. HIGH CHOICE 2-4 1200-1400 LBS. 64.50-67.50, CHOICE 2-3 1100-1400 LBS. 63.00-65.00, HIGH CHOICE HOL STEINS 1325 LBS. TO 55.00. FED HEIFERS: 10 HEAD. HIGH CHOICE 900-1300 LBS. 61.00-64.00, LOW CHOICE 55.00-60.00. CALVES: 166 HEAD, GOOD SLAUGHTER. 80-115 LBS. 34.00-44.00, THIN AND ROUGH 24.00-34.00; HOL STEIN BULLS RETURNING TO FARM 5.00 HIGHER. +NI 95-115 LBS. 105.00- +N2 90-120 LBS. 70.00- HOLSTEIN HEIFERS 1 PUREBRED 88 LBS. AT 545.00, +N2 80-120 LBS. 260.00-375.00, 70-80 LBS. 85.00- BEEF X BULLS AND HEIFERS +NI 90-120 LBS. 85.00- BUTCHER HOGS: 41 HEAD, 2.00-3.00 LOWER. +NI AND 2 220-280 LBS. 26.50-27.00,3 HEAD TO 28.50,+N2 AND 3 240-300 LBS. 22.00-25.00, 300-400 LBS. 16.00-24.00. -316 + 13 -5 -17 -27 -28 -25 -25 + 10 -20 +53 +43 +3O High 1972 1804 1802 1774 1770 1740 Low 1972 1790 1782 1764 1770 1740 Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help fanners across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA re cord sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week’s average costs of various ingredients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Penn sylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Com, No.2y 2.76 bu., 4.94 cwt. Wheat, N 0.2 3.11 bu., 5.19 cwt. Barley, N 0.3 1.60 bu., 3.41 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 —1.68 bu., 5.24 cwt. Soybeans, No.l 5.35 bu., 8.93 cwt. Ear Com 74.79 ton, 3.74 cwt. Alfalfa Hay —130.00 ton, 6.5 cwt. Mixed Hay 120.00 ton, 6.00 cwt. Timothy Hay 115.00 ton, 5.75 cwt. 401 6846 183 2465 9 68 Chge + 12 -6 -4 -2 -4 unch Last 1972 1802 1802 1774 1770 1740
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