Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, August 24, 2002
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG.
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, August 22, 2002
Com
♦CASH*
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
JUL 04
DEC 04
08/21/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
Total
08/21/02
Soybeans
08/21/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
*CASH*
SEP 02
NOV 02
JAN 03
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
NOV 04
Total
08/21/02
Soybean Meal
08/21/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
*CASH*
SEP 02
OCT 02
DEC 02
JAN 03
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
OCT 03
DEC 03
Total
08/21/02
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
August 19,2002
Farm Milk Price Gets Squeezed
• All-milk price hits season
low.
• Feed prices getting higher.
• Cow numbers growing.
Last week’s milk production
report confirmed what the mar
ket already knew, that the milk
supply was growing. USDA’s
milk production report indicated
that the number of cows on farms
in 20 select states was up from
7.745 million head in January to
7.786 million head in July. In
fact, July saw growth of 7,000
head. Production per cow was
also higher.
This was bad news for the
dairy markets, which reacted
swiftly. Block cheese prices in
Chicago fell from $1.1625 per
pound on Monday, Aug. 12 to
$1.13 per pound by Friday, Aug.
High
2682
2610
2720
2776
2794
2792
2642
2532
2580
2600
2414
Open
2594
2706
2766
2782
2782
2642
2530
2580
2600
2414
Volume Qpen_lnt
88984 520351
High
5580
5510
5384
5420
5420
5410
5410
5370
5240
5150
5100
Open
5504
5380
5420
5420
5400
5390
5360
5240
5120
5100
Volume Open_lnt
78848 203382
Open
High
18350
1777
1707
1685
1685
1673
1660
1662
1660
1640
1610
1605
1777
1707
1685
1682
1673
1660
1660
1660
1635
1610
1600
Volume Open_lnt
32191 136133
16. In addition, the futures mar
kets showed additional weakness.
As of Aug. 16, 2002, the Class 111
futures at the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange showed an August
price of $9.50 per CWT, a Sep
tember price of $10.15 per CWT,
and an October-December price
of $10.50-$ll per CWT.
On top of all this gloom is a
steady rise in grain, meal, and al
falfa hay prices. A severe drought
in Canada and some parts of the
U.S. Combelt are causing higher
feed prices. At the Chicago Board
of Trade, December corn rose
from $2.20 per bushel earlier this
year to $2.85 per bushel. Novem
ber soybean futures rose from
$4.62 per bushel earlier in the
spring to close to $5.75 per bush
el. And hay prices have nowhere
to go but higher. Canada will
likely keep more of their limited
supplies of hay to feed their with
ering herds.
Last
2682
2604
2714
2774
2790
2790
2624
2516
2564
2590
2400
LOW
2682
2574
2676
2736
2760
2764
2616
2504
2564
2590
2396
Low
5580
5400
5302
5334
5360
5340
5350
5340
5240
5120
5100
Last
5580
5480
5376
5410
5412
5404
5404
5370
5240
5150
5100
Low
18350
1743
1681
1662
1661
1653
1642
1648
1638
1630
1598
1600
Last
18350
1763
1696
1683
1682
1672
1659
1661
1650
1635
1604
1605
All of this is resulting in a sig
nificant drop in the milk-feed
price ratio. That index, which
measures the milk price relative
to the cost of feed, fell from 3.0 in
January 2002 and is forecasted to
fall all the way to 2.0 by Septem
ber. The all-milk price, which fell
from $13.40 per CWT in January
to $11.20 per CWT in July, is
only expected to rise moderately
the rest of the year, reaching
$12.22 per CWT by December.
Thus this slight gain will be offset
by higher feed costs.
So why are cow numbers in
creasing when milk prices are
falling to support levels? That is
the big question. Cow numbers in
July grew in 10 of 20 states. As a
result, milk production grew 2.3
percent in these 20 select states in
July. Milk production grew 15.6
percent in New Mexico, 6.3 per
cent in California, 5.6 percent in
Idaho, 4.9 percent in Ohio, and
4.4 percent in New York.
Milk prices will likely not im
prove significantly until cow
numbers stabilize and go down.
Lean Hogs
Date
08/21/02 *CASH*
08/22/02 Oct 02
08/22/02 Dec 02
08/22/02 Feb 03
08/22/02 Apr 03
08/22/02 May 03
08/22/02 Jun 03
08/22/02 Jul 03
08/22/02 Aug 03
08/22/02 Oct 03
Chge
+36
-6
-10
-10
-14
-12
-20
-20
-22
-20
-20
Composite Volume Open_lnt
08/21/02 6875 31621
Live Cattle
Date
08/21/02 *CASH* 0 640064006400 unch
08/22/02 Aug 02 6560 659065506585 +4O
08/22/02 Oct 02 6752 682067456815 +6B
08/22/02 Dec 02 6980 706569707055 +B3
08/22/02 Feb 03 7137 721071207202 +6O
08/22/02 Apr 03 7240 730072157295
08/22/02 Jun 03 6770 681067606805
08/22/02 Aug 03 6815 6825 6805 6825
Chge
+ 73
-62
-34
-36
-36
-30
-16
-20
+ 10
+ 12
+ 60
Composite VolumeOpenjnt
08/21/02 11408 93482
Pork Bellies
Date
08/21/02 *CASH* 0 720072007200 -300
08/22/02 Aug 02 7000 702070007020 -40
08/22(02 Feb 03 6065 612060256092 +lO
08/22/02 Mar 03 6060 608560256040 +l5
08/22/02 May 03 6170 617561706170 +2O
08/22/02 Jul 03 6265 626562556255 -20
08/22/02 Aug 03 6200 620061906190 +9O
Chge
+250
-21
-16
-16
-13
-13
-8
-8
Composite Volume Open_lnt
08/21/02 327 970
Oats
08/21/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
08/22/02
-2
unch
-6
-5
Total
08/21/02
„ f f Previous Previous
Open H.gh Low Last Chge Vo , ume open Int
0 0
3373 17997
2912 10402
308 2082
161 610
38 152
77 241
4 100
0 35
2 2
0 435743574357
3465 355034603500
3510 355034753515
4297 434042604280
5000 501549574970
5760 578557355757
5925 592558955900
5880 590558705875
5590 559555555560
5175 518051505175
„ . , T Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|umeopen lnt
0 0
889 2257
6006 44207
2869 23331
1050 14308
~ tt 1 ■ t w irL Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume ope „ |nt
0 0
10 23
313 909
0 27
1 1
3 10
0 . 0
Open
*CASH*
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
1804
1796
1774
1770
1740
Volume Open_lnt
997 11214
Westminster Livestock
Hagerstown, Md.
Report Supplied By Auction
August 20,2002
SLAUGHTER COWS: 132 HEAD,
STEADY. BREAKERS 38.00-45.00,
BONERS 36.00-41.00, LEAN
31.00-36.00, THIN 31.00 DOWN.
BULLS: 12 HEAD, 2.00 LOWER.
YG+NI 1500-1700 LBS. 49.00-51.00,
YG+N2 1200-2000 LBS. 40.00-48.00.
FED STEERS: 26 HEAD. HIGH
CHOICE 2-4 1200-1400 LBS.
64.50-67.50, CHOICE 2-3 1100-1400
LBS. 63.00-65.00, HIGH CHOICE HOL
STEINS 1325 LBS. TO 55.00.
FED HEIFERS: 10 HEAD. HIGH
CHOICE 900-1300 LBS. 61.00-64.00,
LOW CHOICE 55.00-60.00.
CALVES: 166 HEAD, GOOD
SLAUGHTER. 80-115 LBS. 34.00-44.00,
THIN AND ROUGH 24.00-34.00; HOL
STEIN BULLS RETURNING TO
FARM 5.00 HIGHER. +NI 95-115 LBS.
105.00- +N2 90-120 LBS.
70.00- HOLSTEIN HEIFERS 1
PUREBRED 88 LBS. AT 545.00, +N2
80-120 LBS. 260.00-375.00, 70-80 LBS.
85.00- BEEF X BULLS AND
HEIFERS +NI 90-120 LBS.
85.00-
BUTCHER HOGS: 41 HEAD,
2.00-3.00 LOWER. +NI AND 2 220-280
LBS. 26.50-27.00,3 HEAD TO 28.50,+N2
AND 3 240-300 LBS. 22.00-25.00,
300-400 LBS. 16.00-24.00.
-316
+ 13
-5
-17
-27
-28
-25
-25
+ 10
-20
+53
+43
+3O
High
1972
1804
1802
1774
1770
1740
Low
1972
1790
1782
1764
1770
1740
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help fanners across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 2.76 bu., 4.94 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.11 bu., 5.19 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 1.60 bu., 3.41 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 —1.68 bu., 5.24 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 5.35 bu., 8.93 cwt.
Ear Com 74.79 ton, 3.74 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay —130.00 ton, 6.5 cwt.
Mixed Hay 120.00 ton, 6.00 cwt.
Timothy Hay 115.00 ton, 5.75 cwt.
401 6846
183 2465
9 68
Chge
+ 12
-6
-4
-2
-4
unch
Last
1972
1802
1802
1774
1770
1740