Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, December 14, 2002 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, December 12, 2002 Com 12/11/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 *CASH* DEC 02 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 MAR 04 MAY 04 JUL 04 DEC 04 Total 12/11/02 Soybeans 12/11/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 *CASH* JAN 03 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 AUG SEP NOV JAN MAR NOV Total 12/11/02 Soybean Meal 12/11/02 12/12/02 *CASH* DEC 02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 Total 12/11/02 Dec. 6,2002 FUTURES MARKET FOR 2003 LOOKS BETTER • Class 111 futures at $11.90 for 2003. • Current market conditions P° rt shows strong production for . cheese and butter. USDA an we ' . nounced that the Class 111 price • U.S. joblessness rate for No- f or November is down to $9.84 vember up to 6 percent. per CWT. Finally, the U.S. job- The short-term market infqrrp- jo£ November rose Woo js pajv^uigAttiueibag.. Jc ~ High 2434 2374 2406 2426 2446 2420 2394 2450 2460 2480 2390 Open 2374 2400 2422 2440 2412 2390 2446 2460 2480 2390 Volume Open_lnt 42992 453636 High 5580 5770 5724 5620 5590 Open 5700 5664 5570 5544 5490 5310 5136 5150 5180 4844 5460 5310 5114 5150 5180 4844 Volume Open_lnt 36693 213424 Open High Low Last 16150 16150 16150 1645 1625 1645 1636 1641 1648 1643 1638 1609 1580 1550 1540 1550 1550 1572 1575 1585 Volume Open_lnt 22466 140758 First, the bad news. The USDA announced a price sup port tilt that will likely reduce the market price of nonfat dry milk. The October dairy products re- Low 2434 2330 2366 2390 2412 2400 2380 2440 2460 2464 2390 Low 5580 5640 5612 5520 5480 5430 5294 5090 5150 5180 4844 1630 1640 1634 1629 1603 1578 1545 1537 1545 1549 1572 1575 1585 1650 1658 1649 1645 1627 1600 1555 1556 1550 1550 1572 1575 1585 Lean Hogs Date 12/11/02 *CASH* 12/12/02 Dec 02 12/12/02 Feb 03 12/12/02 Apr 03 12/12/02 May 03 12/12/02 Jun 03 12/12/02 Jul 03 12/12/02 Aug 03 12/12/02 Oct 03 12/12/02 Dec 03 Chge +22 -16 -12 -4 -6 -4 -4 -2 -4 -4 unch Last 2434 2360 2392 2416 2436 2410 2386 2442 2460 2464 2390 Composite Volume Open_lnt 12/11/02 15997 44664 Live Cattle Date 12/11/02 *CASH* 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 Chge + 40 + 80 + 66 + 56 + 52 Last 5580 5760 5714 5614 5576 + 50 + 30 + 20 + 20 + 14 + 2 Composite Volume Open_lnt 12/11/02 16767 116583 5490 5300 5122 5150 5180 4844 Pork Bellies Date 12/11/02 *CASH* 0 780078007800 12/12/02 Feb 03 8490 859084158467 12/12/02 Mar 03 8375 846782908330 12/12/02 May 03 8480 855084108450 12/12/02 Jul 03 8570 857084708505 12/12/02 Aug 03 8527 852785278527 Chge + 150 + 9 1649 1657 1648 1645 1626 1598 1551 1555 1547 1550 1572 1575 1585 Composite Volume Open_lnt 12/11/02 870 2444 +7 + 12 + 13 +4 + 9 Oats 12/11/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 12/12/02 (-3 + 10 + 13 + 8 Total 12/11/02 There is some good news out there. The Grade AA butter price at the Chicago Mercantile Ex change this week is at $l.ll per pound, above support-price lev els. USD A has announced a plan to deal with surplus powder in government warehouses. The fu tures market for 2003 looks promising. And finally, Holiday sales after Thanksgiving Day looked very promising. This is pointing to a stronger than ex pected holiday shopping period. Some dairy producers are being offered fixed price con tracts on their milk supply for 2003. They can contract all or part of their future milk produc tion relative to a Class 111, Class IV, cheese, or butter price. Gen erally speaking, I really like fixed price contracts. They are very cost-effective to the producer, you get one price for the entire year, and they are easy to deal with. However, be forewarned: yop will get exactly what you .contract for! ~ ¥I . . i ¥ .Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume ()pen |n| 0 0 5180 7123 8281 20894 1676 7572 207 1983 498 4496 98 1389 41 926 5 223 10 58 0 426242624262 -354 4360 437043304345 +2O 5255 529051855197 -48 5765 585057555757 -38 6200 624061806197 -5 6560 662065306590 +5 6305 632562556315 +lO 6025 602560056007 -18 5260 526052505260 -10 5190 519051705190 unch ~ . ¥ . Previous Previous Open H.gh Low Last Chge Vo|ume ()pen 0 0 0 729472947294 Dec 02 7370 737072877292 Feb 03 7780 779077107735 Apr 03 7730 773076607687 Jun 03 7165 717070807125 Aug 03 7030 703069476972 Oct 03 7150 719070607060 TW . . T v . Previous Previous Open H.gh Low Last Chge Vo|ume ()pen |m 0 0 788 2000 63 220 13 80 6 131 0 13 Open *CASH* DEC 02 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 MAR 04 1994 2016 1940 1790 1590 1550 1580 Volume Open_lnt 636 6003 That said, my advice is to 1) don’t lock in all your future milk production at a fixed price, un less you really want to, and 2) only consider a price that is close to the five-year average. The Class 111 futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as of Dec. 6, 2002 averaged $11.90 for all of 2003. That is very close to the five-year average Class 111 price of $12.02 per CWT (1998-2002). Right now, I’d take “average” over “below average” any day. So, if you are offered a fixed price contract for all of 2003 at a Class 111 price close to $l2, I would recommend you contract part of your production. Consid er 20-40 percent for 2003. This will provide you with greater se curity and will help cash flow the business the first half of next year. Generally speaking, most analysts expect milk prices will be lower the hqlf (&SK)3 and higher the second half. -56 unch + 12 +5 unch -105 -3 High 2166 2072 2022 1960 1790 1590 1550 1580 Low 2166 1994 2002 1940 1780 1590 1550 1580 Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for OHIA re- cord sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week’s average costs of various ingredients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Penn- sylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Corn, No.2y 3.02 bu., 5.40 cwt. Wheat, N 0.2 3.50 bu„ 5.84 cwt. Barley, No 3 2.06 bu.. 4.40 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 1.87 bu., 5.81 cwt. Soybeans, No 1 5.71 bu„ 9 53 cwt Ear Corn 85.13 ton, 4.26 cwt Alfalfa Hay 138 00 ton. 6.9 cwt. Mixed Hay 135 00 ton, 6 75 cwt. Timothy Hay 133.50 ton, 6.68 cwt 6290 6732 2241 1157 303 44 10538 52487 29343 17843 5371 1001 Chge + 14 + 50 +2 unch -6 unch unch unch Last 2166 2050 2020 1960 1784 1590 1550 1580
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers