Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 24,2001 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG. &MILKBFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, February 22, 2001 Corn Month Opening High \ Low [ 1 OlMar 210 212 3/4 209 1/2 209 1/2T 2 10 |209 3/4; -6\ OlMay 217 1/2 220 3/4 217 1/2 217 1/2 1 218 217 3/4; -4 OUul 225 1/2 228 1/4 225 1/2 225 1/2 225 3/4 225 3/4 OlSep 233 3/4 236 1/4 233 1/2 233 1/2 ,233 3/4 233 3/4 OlDec 244 1/2 247 1/2 244 1/4 244 1/2 244 3/4 244 3/4 02Mar 253 3/4 256 1/4 253 1/2 253 3/4 253 3/4 02May 259 1/2 262 259 260 260, 02Jul 265 1/2 02Dec 262 1/4 Month Opening High Soybeans Month Opening High Low 459 462 454 3/4455 1/4 454 3/4! OlMay 458 1/2 461 1/2 454 1/2,455 1/4 454 1/2| OUul 464 3/4 466 3/4 460 1/2 460 1/2 461 i OlAug 465 466 1/2 460| 461 460 OlSep 463 464,457 1/21457 1/2 I OlMar 466 469 462 1/2,463 1/2 462 1/2 OINov 02Jan 02Mar 02May 02Jul 02Nov 507 507 5051 504 b 505 a, Month Opening High Weekly Dairy Market Outlook By Ken Bailey Penn State University February 19, 2001 January Milk Production Down 1.5 Percent -Anticipated milk snppls It tii’hten -Cheese piodiiction expected to he i edne ed -Cm lent cheese pi ices wcict On February 16 LISDA released the January milk production report. December levised milk pi eduction foi 2000 tor 20 select states was 11 9 billion pounds, down 0 7 peicent born December 1999 Januaiy 2001 milk production tor 20 select states was 12 1 billion pounds, down 1 5 percent tiom January 2000 The perceived reduction m the milk supply, coupled with firm demand for process cheese, stiengthened cheese prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Puces foi 40-pound blocks lose from SI 16 per pound on Monday, February 12 to $1 28 by Friday, February 16 Bairel prices rose from $1.20 per pound on Monday to $1 25 by Friday USD A reported last week that demand tor process cheese was strong due to buyers storing foi latei use and fast food promotions Recent puce increases also stimulated natuial cheese sales and reduced spot load availability What is driving this market is a perception that the milk supply is tightening Recent 264 264 1/2 264 1/4 262 262 1/2 ! 262 1/2 264 266 264 Low 472 1/2 473 1/2 482 1/2 483 1/2, b a> Low i Closing electrical problems in California, profit pioblems in the West, and the recent milk production report aie cited as reasons for this strong icaction January milk production tor 20 select states did tall 1 5 percent iclative to Januaiy 2000 And. the number of cows on (aims m January did fall 12,000 head relative to December 2000 (this is only the second month in a few years that cow numbers fell) But milk production last Januaiy (2000) was up whopping 5 peicent relative to January 1999 So the base year we are compaimg January 2001 to is iclatively high Stated anothei way, Januaiy 2001 milk production for 20 select states was up 3 4 percent relative to January 1999, an aveiage increase of 1 7 percent per year The big news of couise is that California milk pioduction was up only 1 5 percent in January Cow numbers rose from 1 492 million head m January 2000 to 1 562 million head m January 2001 Production per cow fell Will this negative trend last a few more months foi the number one dairy state 1 ’ Arizona production fell 4 9 percent, again due to lower production per cow There weie big production losses m other states as well Missouri down 12 8 percent, Texas down 12 1 percent, and Virginia down 5 8 percent (Turn to Page Al 7) 1 Settle jriet CHg Closing Closing , 492 a 491 b 497 b 499 a Lean Hogs Daily Prices As of Date 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 -4, -4 Composite Volume Openjnt 02/21/01 10619 41233 -10 Live Cattle -10 Daily Prices As of Date 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 Composite Volume Open_lnt 02/21/01 21242 131328 Pork Bellies Daily Prices As of Date 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 02/22/01 Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages 16-Feb-01 9-Feb-01 2-Feb-01 26-Jan-01 19-Jan-01 Cheese. 500 lb. barrels 40-lb. blocks Butter: Grade AA 1 3533 1.3142 1.3308 Source: Dairy Market News, AMS.USDA (http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairY/nmcs/weekly.htm). Table 2. NASS Weekly US Average Survey Prices 10-Feb-01 3-Feb-01 27-Jan-01 Cheese 500 lb Bands 1/ 40-lb blocks Butter 1 1200 1 0943 1 0850 1.0898 1 2972 1 2874 Nonfat Dry Milk 10141 10160 Dry whey 0 2637 0 2516 Source. Dairy Product Puces, NASS, USDA (http://usda. maim lib. comell edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/] 999/) 1/ Adjusted to 39% moisture. Table 3. Penn State Forecast of Federal Order Prices for 2001 Class I Mover 2000 2001 10 90 13.99 10 71 1194 10 84 12 61 10 93 12 83 1148 12.74 11 70 12 78 12 46 12.87 11 95 13 00 1184 13 13 1189 13.21 11 82 13 21 12 13 1321 11 55 12 96 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun • Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Avg Forecast as of February 19, 2001 - Thursday, 22 February Prev. Open High Low Last Chge y o | um g 6522 2748 510 581 171 71 14 Apr 01 6150 6207 6115 6197 +35 Jun 01 6640 6690 6635 6687 +l5 JulOl 6375 6405 6357 6400 +lB Aug 01 6097 6100 6050 6090 -5 Oct 01 5325 5330 5290 5315 -7 Dec 01 5060 5085 5040 5085 +23 Feb 02 5145 5150 5100 5150 unch Apr 02 5080 5095 5080 5080 +5 - Thursday, 22 February Open High Low Last Chge 8105 8177 8080 8175 7975 8035 7950 8032 7335 7355 7285 7352 7267 7295 7240 7285 7467 7495 7440 7482 7575 7600 7555 7590 7672 7690 7655 7682 Feb 01 Apr 01 Jun 01 Aug 01 Oct 01 Dec 01 Feb 02 Thursday, 22 February p rev Prev Open High L<m Last Chge Vo|um< ; Qpenjnt 12 52 291 1684 154 809 25 202 10 57 7160 7420 7130 7330 +l5O 7150 7435 7090 7320 +135 7370 7610 7295 7495 +l2O 7400 7575 7380 7570 +125 7400 7475 7400 7450 +BO 0 6330 6330 6330 +BO 0 6300 6300 6300 +2lO - Feb 01 Mar 01 May 01 JulOl Aug 01 Feb 02 Mar 02 1 2220 1 1880 1 1300 1 2190 1.1480 1 1010 Class II 2000 2001 11.43 12 82 11.51 13.36 1171 13.53 12 10 13.46 12.63 13 48 13.08 13 57 12 58 13.70 12.56 13 83 12 58 13 91 12.54 13 91 13 68 13.91 13 97 13 31 12 53 13 57 Prev. Volume 3261 10417 3934 2092 1041 395 102 1.0920 1.1110 1.2958 20-Jan-01 1 0889 1 0906 1 2177 1 0172 0 2498 1 0852 1 0802 1.2371 1.0150 0 2525 Class IV 2000 10.73 1 10.80 1 11.00 1 11.38 1 11.91 1 12.38 1 11.87 11.87 11.94 11.81 13.00 13 27 11 83 Class 111 Prev. Open_lnt 21477 9740 2377 2977 2786 1710 156 10 Prev. Open_lnt 8567 64290 22760 19223 11432 4131 924 1 0800 1.0869 1.2413 13-Jan-01 1 1079 1 1077 1 1589 1 0156 0 2476
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