Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 24,2001
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG.
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, February 22, 2001
Corn
Month Opening High \ Low [ 1
OlMar 210 212 3/4 209 1/2 209 1/2T 2 10 |209 3/4; -6\
OlMay 217 1/2 220 3/4 217 1/2 217 1/2 1 218 217 3/4; -4
OUul 225 1/2 228 1/4 225 1/2 225 1/2 225 3/4 225 3/4
OlSep 233 3/4 236 1/4 233 1/2 233 1/2 ,233 3/4 233 3/4
OlDec 244 1/2 247 1/2 244 1/4 244 1/2 244 3/4 244 3/4
02Mar 253 3/4 256 1/4 253 1/2 253 3/4 253 3/4
02May 259 1/2 262 259 260 260,
02Jul 265 1/2
02Dec 262 1/4
Month Opening High
Soybeans
Month Opening High Low
459 462 454 3/4455 1/4 454 3/4!
OlMay 458 1/2 461 1/2 454 1/2,455 1/4 454 1/2|
OUul 464 3/4 466 3/4 460 1/2 460 1/2 461 i
OlAug 465 466 1/2 460| 461 460
OlSep 463 464,457 1/21457 1/2 I
OlMar
466 469 462 1/2,463 1/2 462 1/2
OINov
02Jan
02Mar
02May
02Jul
02Nov 507 507 5051 504 b 505 a,
Month Opening High
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
February 19, 2001
January Milk Production
Down 1.5 Percent
-Anticipated milk snppls It
tii’hten
-Cheese piodiiction expected
to he i edne ed
-Cm lent cheese pi ices wcict
On February 16 LISDA
released the January milk
production report. December
levised milk pi eduction foi 2000
tor 20 select states was 11 9
billion pounds, down 0 7 peicent
born December 1999 Januaiy
2001 milk production tor 20
select states was 12 1 billion
pounds, down 1 5 percent tiom
January 2000
The perceived reduction m
the milk supply, coupled with
firm demand for process cheese,
stiengthened cheese prices at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Puces foi 40-pound blocks lose
from SI 16 per pound on
Monday, February 12 to $1 28 by
Friday, February 16 Bairel
prices rose from $1.20 per pound
on Monday to $1 25 by Friday
USD A reported last week that
demand tor process cheese was
strong due to buyers storing foi
latei use and fast food
promotions Recent puce
increases also stimulated natuial
cheese sales and reduced spot
load availability
What is driving this market
is a perception that the milk
supply is tightening Recent
264 264 1/2 264 1/4
262 262 1/2 ! 262 1/2
264
266
264
Low
472 1/2 473 1/2
482 1/2 483 1/2,
b a>
Low i Closing
electrical problems in California,
profit pioblems in the West, and
the recent milk production report
aie cited as reasons for this strong
icaction
January milk production tor
20 select states did tall 1 5
percent iclative to Januaiy 2000
And. the number of cows on
(aims m January did fall 12,000
head relative to December 2000
(this is only the second month in a
few years that cow numbers fell)
But milk production last Januaiy
(2000) was up whopping 5
peicent relative to January 1999
So the base year we are
compaimg January 2001 to is
iclatively high Stated anothei
way, Januaiy 2001 milk
production for 20 select states
was up 3 4 percent relative to
January 1999, an aveiage increase
of 1 7 percent per year
The big news of couise is
that California milk pioduction
was up only 1 5 percent in
January Cow numbers rose from
1 492 million head m January
2000 to 1 562 million head m
January 2001 Production per
cow fell Will this negative trend
last a few more months foi the
number one dairy state 1 ’ Arizona
production fell 4 9 percent, again
due to lower production per cow
There weie big production losses
m other states as well Missouri
down 12 8 percent, Texas down
12 1 percent, and Virginia down
5 8 percent
(Turn to Page Al 7)
1 Settle jriet CHg
Closing
Closing ,
492 a
491 b
497 b
499 a
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of
Date
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
-4,
-4
Composite Volume Openjnt
02/21/01 10619 41233
-10
Live Cattle
-10
Daily Prices As of
Date
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/21/01 21242 131328
Pork Bellies
Daily Prices As of
Date
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
02/22/01
Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages
16-Feb-01 9-Feb-01 2-Feb-01 26-Jan-01 19-Jan-01
Cheese.
500 lb. barrels
40-lb. blocks
Butter:
Grade AA 1 3533 1.3142 1.3308
Source: Dairy Market News, AMS.USDA
(http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairY/nmcs/weekly.htm).
Table 2. NASS Weekly US Average Survey Prices
10-Feb-01 3-Feb-01 27-Jan-01
Cheese
500 lb Bands 1/
40-lb blocks
Butter
1 1200 1 0943
1 0850 1.0898
1 2972 1 2874
Nonfat Dry Milk 10141 10160
Dry whey 0 2637 0 2516
Source. Dairy Product Puces, NASS, USDA
(http://usda. maim lib. comell edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/] 999/)
1/ Adjusted to 39% moisture.
Table 3. Penn State Forecast of Federal Order Prices for 2001
Class I Mover
2000 2001
10 90 13.99
10 71 1194
10 84 12 61
10 93 12 83
1148 12.74
11 70 12 78
12 46 12.87
11 95 13 00
1184 13 13
1189 13.21
11 82 13 21
12 13 1321
11 55 12 96
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
• Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual Avg
Forecast as of February 19, 2001
- Thursday, 22 February
Prev.
Open High Low Last Chge y o | um g
6522
2748
510
581
171
71
14
Apr 01 6150 6207 6115 6197 +35
Jun 01 6640 6690 6635 6687 +l5
JulOl 6375 6405 6357 6400 +lB
Aug 01 6097 6100 6050 6090 -5
Oct 01 5325 5330 5290 5315 -7
Dec 01 5060 5085 5040 5085 +23
Feb 02 5145 5150 5100 5150 unch
Apr 02 5080 5095 5080 5080 +5
- Thursday, 22 February
Open High Low Last Chge
8105 8177 8080 8175
7975 8035 7950 8032
7335 7355 7285 7352
7267 7295 7240 7285
7467 7495 7440 7482
7575 7600 7555 7590
7672 7690 7655 7682
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
Aug 01
Oct 01
Dec 01
Feb 02
Thursday, 22 February
p rev Prev
Open High L<m Last Chge Vo|um< ; Qpenjnt
12 52
291 1684
154 809
25 202
10 57
7160 7420 7130 7330 +l5O
7150 7435 7090 7320 +135
7370 7610 7295 7495 +l2O
7400 7575 7380 7570 +125
7400 7475 7400 7450 +BO
0 6330 6330 6330 +BO
0 6300 6300 6300 +2lO
- Feb 01
Mar 01
May 01
JulOl
Aug 01
Feb 02
Mar 02
1 2220 1 1880 1 1300
1 2190 1.1480 1 1010
Class II
2000 2001
11.43 12 82
11.51 13.36
1171 13.53
12 10 13.46
12.63 13 48
13.08 13 57
12 58 13.70
12.56 13 83
12 58 13 91
12.54 13 91
13 68 13.91
13 97 13 31
12 53 13 57
Prev.
Volume
3261
10417
3934
2092
1041
395
102
1.0920
1.1110
1.2958
20-Jan-01
1 0889
1 0906
1 2177
1 0172
0 2498
1 0852
1 0802
1.2371
1.0150
0 2525
Class IV
2000
10.73 1
10.80 1
11.00 1
11.38 1
11.91 1
12.38 1
11.87
11.87
11.94
11.81
13.00
13 27
11 83
Class 111
Prev.
Open_lnt
21477
9740
2377
2977
2786
1710
156
10
Prev.
Open_lnt
8567
64290
22760
19223
11432
4131
924
1 0800
1.0869
1.2413
13-Jan-01
1 1079
1 1077
1 1589
1 0156
0 2476