Al6-La waster Farming, Saturday, December 18, 1999 GRAIN. CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy Of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Corn Daily Prices As of Symbol:C 12/16/99 DEC 12/16/99 MAR 12/16/99 MAY 12/16/99 JUL 12/16/99 SEP 12/16/99 NOV 12/16/99 DEC 12/16/99 JAN 12/16/99 MAR 12/16/99 JUL 12/16/99 DEC Total 12/15/99 Soybeans Daily Prices As ofWednesday, 15 December Symbol:S 12/15/99 JAN 00 12/15/99 MAR 00 12/15/99 MAY 00 12/15/99 JUL 00 12/15/99 AUG 00 12/15/99 SEP 00 12/15/99 NOV 00 12/15/99 NOV 01 Total 12/14/99 Soybean Meal Daily Prices As of Wednesday, 15 December Symbol: SM 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 12/15/99 Total 12/14/99 Cheese Markets Strengthen By Ken Bailey Penn State University • CME block cheese reach $1 1850/lb • No cheese went into USDA storage • October cheese production • Butter prices weak The cheese market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed some strength this week as block cheese prices rose from support levels ($1.12 per pound in Chicago) on Monday, Dec. 6, to $1 1850 on Friday, Dec. 10. Likewise, barrel cheese rose from $1.1075 per pound on Monday to $1.1650 by Friday. I’m not sure exactly what this means. On the one hand, cheese processors have an incentive to strengthen cheese pnces so that inventories don’t look so bad on Dec. 31, 1999. Also, this may reflect strength in wholesale cheese movement. Demand for cheese in the fourth quarter will likely be very good this year due (doling bids: Thursday, December 16, 1999 - Thursday, 16 December Open 1890 1984 2060 2122 2192 2254 2280 2310 2370 2442 2500 Volume Open_lnt 35955 391623 High 4544 4614 4674 4734 4730 4730 4800 5010 Open 4524 4596 4670 4720 4730 4724 4800 Volume Open_Xnt 34994 156987 Volume Open_Xnt 26604 102951 to a strong economy. On the other hand, cheese production has been very strong. American type cheese produc tion in October totaled 297.8 million pounds, up 11.6 percent above a year ago and up 5.0 per cent from September 1999 lev els. American type cheese pro duction or the months January through October were up 8.5 percent. That compares with milk production that was up around 3.3 percent. A lot of the excess milk production, particu larly from the West, has ended up in cheese vats. New market information will be coming shortly. USDA will announce the November milk production report on December 15. They will announce November cold storage numbers (ending cheese stocks) on December 20. Look for these reports for price movements If milk production in November is constrained (up just 3 percent and cow number continue to fall) Last 4526 4590 4650 4712 4704 4704 4784 5010 Low 4490 4554 4614 4674 4684 4700 4750 5010 Last Chge 1430 -8 1431 -8 1431 -9 1431 -8 1441 -7 1436 -9 1438 -8 1429 -13 1468 -12 1475 -5 Low 1415 1414 1418 1419 1431 1433 1433 1428 1463 1475 Lean Hogs Daily Prices As ot Date 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 Composite Volume 12/15/99 5892 Live Cattle Daily Prices As of Date 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 12/16/99 Chge -2 -10 -12 -10 -14 -14 -4 unch Composite Volume Open_lnt 12/15/99 15623 119893 Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages 10-Dec-99 3-Dec-99 26-No v-99 Cheese. 500 lb. barrels 40-lb. blocks Nonfat dry milk: Extra Grade Grade A Butter; Grade AA 0 9067 Source: Dairy Market News, AMS, USDA (http://www. ams. usda. gov/dairy/mncs/weekly. htm). Table 2. NASS Weekly U.S. Average Survey Prices 04-Dec-99 27-Nov-99 20-Nov-99 Cheese 500 lb Bands 1/ 1.0878 1 0966 40-lb. blocks 1.1238 1 1426 Butter 0.9632 1.0341 Nonlat dry milk 1.0115 10136 Dry whey 0.1861 0.1937 Source: Dairy Product Prices, NASS, USDA (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/1999/). 1/ Adjusted to 39% moisture. and cheese stocks fall sharply, then cheese prices could remain at the level of $l.lB per pound through January. Butter prices remain at rela tively weak levels. Grade AA butter at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell to $.09050 per pound on Monday, Dec. 6, then rose to $0.9075 on both Wednesday, Dec. 8 and Friday, Dec. 10. USDA reports that demand for butter from retail and food service sources are very good. But cream is available and churning schedules are active. - Thursday, 16 Decembci Open Dec 99 Feb 00 \pi 00 Jun 00 Jul 00 Aug 00 Oct 00 Dec 00 Feb 01 Apr 01 5700 5755 6495 6335 6135 5662 5450 Open_lnt 51704 - Thursday, 16 Deccmbei Open High 6902 6860 7040 6867 6875 7050 7162 Dec 99 Feb 00 Api 00 Jun 00 Aug 00 Oct 00 Dec 00 Oats Daily Prices As of Symbol:o 12/15/99 DEC 99 12/15/99 MAR 00 12/15/99 MAY 00 12/15/99 JUL 00 12/15/99 SEP 00 12/15/99 DEC 00 Total 12/14/99 1.1320 1.1075 1.0975 1.1470 1 1200 1.1200 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1,0300 So, fresh and frozen butter is readily available to the market. However, year-end butter inven tories may reveal very strong demand for the fourth quarter. That could raise butter prices early next year. Settlement prices for the BFP futures as of December 10,1999 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange looked very flat: December 1999: $9.94; January 2000: $11.01; February 2000; $11.18; March 2000; $11.25; April 2000: $11.37; and May 2000: $11.39. There is great uncertainty for Last Low High Last Low 6890 -15 6860 +l3 7052 unch 6890 +lO 6892 +l5 7042 +lO 7170 +8 6875 6827 7015 6855 6855 7035 7155 6905 6867 7065 6895 6895 7065 7175 - Wednesday, 15 December High 1024 1116 1164 1142 1170 1250 Open 1116 1162 1142 1170 1250 Volume Opon_lnt 1068 12504 0.9208 1.0100 Prev Chge Volume 55 3416 1213 589 192 137 211 77 -17 - 10 Prev. Chge Volume 2856 8487 2572 1139 347 113 109 Low 1024 1094 1142 1120 1170 1234 Last 1024 1096 1142 1122 1170 1234 '-Nov-99 1.0975 1.1220 1.0300 1.0300 1.0683 13-Nov-99 1.2056 1.2396 1.0768 1 0189 0 1925 1 1443 1.1833 1 0660 1.0158 0 1925 which way milk prices will go the first quarter of the new year. First of all, we will likely have federal order reform. This is expected to lower the definition of the Class 111 price by $0.40 per cwt. Also, cheese prices could go either way (above or below $l.lB per pound). For dairy farmers, I would certainly wait until the cold storage report is released December 20 before hedging any milk prices. For more information on dairy outlook, see my web site at : http://www.aers.psu.edu/dairy outlook/ Prev. Open_lnt 6847 26699 8957 5526 1720 1106 662 181 Prev. Open_lnt 12546 53908 28513 12909 6234 3023 2760 Chge -14 -16 -20 -16 -12 -10 12-Nov-99 1.1085 1.1170 1.0300 1.0300 1.0983 06-Nov-99 1.2299 1.2806 1.0678 1.0181 0.1924
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