Al6-La waster Farming, Saturday, December 18, 1999
GRAIN. CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy Of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Corn
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:C
12/16/99 DEC
12/16/99 MAR
12/16/99 MAY
12/16/99 JUL
12/16/99 SEP
12/16/99 NOV
12/16/99 DEC
12/16/99 JAN
12/16/99 MAR
12/16/99 JUL
12/16/99 DEC
Total
12/15/99
Soybeans
Daily Prices As ofWednesday, 15 December
Symbol:S
12/15/99 JAN 00
12/15/99 MAR 00
12/15/99 MAY 00
12/15/99 JUL 00
12/15/99 AUG 00
12/15/99 SEP 00
12/15/99 NOV 00
12/15/99 NOV 01
Total
12/14/99
Soybean Meal
Daily Prices As of Wednesday, 15 December
Symbol: SM
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
12/15/99
Total
12/14/99
Cheese Markets Strengthen
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
• CME block cheese reach
$1 1850/lb
• No cheese went into USDA
storage
• October cheese production
• Butter prices weak
The cheese market at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
showed some strength this week
as block cheese prices rose from
support levels ($1.12 per pound
in Chicago) on Monday, Dec. 6, to
$1 1850 on Friday, Dec. 10.
Likewise, barrel cheese rose
from $1.1075 per pound on
Monday to $1.1650 by Friday.
I’m not sure exactly what this
means. On the one hand, cheese
processors have an incentive to
strengthen cheese pnces so that
inventories don’t look so bad on
Dec. 31, 1999. Also, this may
reflect strength in wholesale
cheese movement. Demand for
cheese in the fourth quarter will
likely be very good this year due
(doling bids: Thursday, December 16, 1999
- Thursday, 16 December
Open
1890
1984
2060
2122
2192
2254
2280
2310
2370
2442
2500
Volume Open_lnt
35955 391623
High
4544
4614
4674
4734
4730
4730
4800
5010
Open
4524
4596
4670
4720
4730
4724
4800
Volume Open_Xnt
34994 156987
Volume Open_Xnt
26604 102951
to a strong economy.
On the other hand, cheese
production has been very strong.
American type cheese produc
tion in October totaled 297.8
million pounds, up 11.6 percent
above a year ago and up 5.0 per
cent from September 1999 lev
els. American type cheese pro
duction or the months January
through October were up 8.5
percent. That compares with
milk production that was up
around 3.3 percent. A lot of the
excess milk production, particu
larly from the West, has ended
up in cheese vats.
New market information will
be coming shortly. USDA will
announce the November milk
production report on December
15. They will announce
November cold storage numbers
(ending cheese stocks) on
December 20. Look for these
reports for price movements If
milk production in November is
constrained (up just 3 percent
and cow number continue to fall)
Last
4526
4590
4650
4712
4704
4704
4784
5010
Low
4490
4554
4614
4674
4684
4700
4750
5010
Last Chge
1430 -8
1431 -8
1431 -9
1431 -8
1441 -7
1436 -9
1438 -8
1429 -13
1468 -12
1475 -5
Low
1415
1414
1418
1419
1431
1433
1433
1428
1463
1475
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As ot
Date
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
Composite Volume
12/15/99 5892
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As of
Date
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
12/16/99
Chge
-2
-10
-12
-10
-14
-14
-4
unch
Composite Volume Open_lnt
12/15/99 15623 119893
Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages
10-Dec-99 3-Dec-99 26-No v-99
Cheese.
500 lb. barrels
40-lb. blocks
Nonfat dry milk:
Extra Grade
Grade A
Butter;
Grade AA 0 9067
Source: Dairy Market News, AMS, USDA
(http://www. ams. usda. gov/dairy/mncs/weekly. htm).
Table 2. NASS Weekly U.S. Average Survey Prices
04-Dec-99 27-Nov-99 20-Nov-99
Cheese
500 lb Bands 1/ 1.0878 1 0966
40-lb. blocks 1.1238 1 1426
Butter 0.9632 1.0341
Nonlat dry milk 1.0115 10136
Dry whey 0.1861 0.1937
Source: Dairy Product Prices, NASS, USDA
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/1999/).
1/ Adjusted to 39% moisture.
and cheese stocks fall sharply,
then cheese prices could remain
at the level of $l.lB per pound
through January.
Butter prices remain at rela
tively weak levels. Grade AA
butter at the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange fell to $.09050 per
pound on Monday, Dec. 6, then
rose to $0.9075 on both
Wednesday, Dec. 8 and Friday,
Dec. 10. USDA reports that
demand for butter from retail
and food service sources are very
good. But cream is available and
churning schedules are active.
- Thursday, 16 Decembci
Open
Dec 99
Feb 00
\pi 00
Jun 00
Jul 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
5700
5755
6495
6335
6135
5662
5450
Open_lnt
51704
- Thursday, 16 Deccmbei
Open High
6902
6860
7040
6867
6875
7050
7162
Dec 99
Feb 00
Api 00
Jun 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Oats
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:o
12/15/99 DEC 99
12/15/99 MAR 00
12/15/99 MAY 00
12/15/99 JUL 00
12/15/99 SEP 00
12/15/99 DEC 00
Total
12/14/99
1.1320 1.1075 1.0975
1.1470 1 1200 1.1200
1.0300 1.0300 1.0300
1.0300 1.0300 1,0300
So, fresh and frozen butter is
readily available to the market.
However, year-end butter inven
tories may reveal very strong
demand for the fourth quarter.
That could raise butter prices
early next year.
Settlement prices for the BFP
futures as of December 10,1999
at the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange looked very flat:
December 1999: $9.94; January
2000: $11.01; February 2000;
$11.18; March 2000; $11.25;
April 2000: $11.37; and May
2000: $11.39.
There is great uncertainty for
Last
Low
High
Last
Low
6890 -15
6860 +l3
7052 unch
6890 +lO
6892 +l5
7042 +lO
7170 +8
6875
6827
7015
6855
6855
7035
7155
6905
6867
7065
6895
6895
7065
7175
- Wednesday, 15 December
High
1024
1116
1164
1142
1170
1250
Open
1116
1162
1142
1170
1250
Volume Opon_lnt
1068 12504
0.9208 1.0100
Prev
Chge
Volume
55
3416
1213
589
192
137
211
77
-17
- 10
Prev.
Chge
Volume
2856
8487
2572
1139
347
113
109
Low
1024
1094
1142
1120
1170
1234
Last
1024
1096
1142
1122
1170
1234
'-Nov-99
1.0975
1.1220
1.0300
1.0300
1.0683
13-Nov-99
1.2056
1.2396
1.0768
1 0189
0 1925
1 1443
1.1833
1 0660
1.0158
0 1925
which way milk prices will go
the first quarter of the new year.
First of all, we will likely have
federal order reform. This is
expected to lower the definition
of the Class 111 price by $0.40
per cwt. Also, cheese prices could
go either way (above or below
$l.lB per pound). For dairy
farmers, I would certainly wait
until the cold storage report is
released December 20 before
hedging any milk prices.
For more information on
dairy outlook, see my web site at
: http://www.aers.psu.edu/dairy
outlook/
Prev.
Open_lnt
6847
26699
8957
5526
1720
1106
662
181
Prev.
Open_lnt
12546
53908
28513
12909
6234
3023
2760
Chge
-14
-16
-20
-16
-12
-10
12-Nov-99
1.1085
1.1170
1.0300
1.0300
1.0983
06-Nov-99
1.2299
1.2806
1.0678
1.0181
0.1924