El Nino Effects May Actually Reverse (Continued from Pago At) “media flood” about the issue and a lot of misinformation, according to the state climatologist But weather forecasters balk at putting the El Nino as solely responsible for the strange weather patterns globally. ‘To ascribe El Nino as the cause of storms in southern California and as the cause of coastal flooding is about as ludicrous as the state ments made at the presidential Second and third place winners In the 5-Acre Corn Club Contest. From left, Joseph Albright, 1997 winner, second place, ear com class, hand harvest; James Hershey, 1997 champion third place, shelled grain class, 3-acre plus harvest size; and Lee Spangler, second place, 1997 champion, shelled grain, 3-acre plus harvest size. TKrSH€ A EQUIPMENT CO., 717-393-5807 1 -800-432-0988 “YOU PLAN ALL WINTER WHAT SEEDS TO SOW” LET US PLAN HOW TO HANDLE THE FRUITS OF YOUR EFFORT WITH QUALITY INSTALLATION GSI AIR STREAM We Have 24 Hr. Service FANS and HEATERS Technicians Available To Assist * FULL-LINE AUGERS You 365 Days A Year • TRANSPORT augers press conference (recently), with the economic report, attributing the success to one man, economi cally,” said Knight “Give me a break. Him and El Nino?” But the El Nino has a great deal of impact on locations nearest to where it occurs, said Knight The weather perturbation, which com es along about once a decade, has a greater impact on locations (such as southern California with the flooding) nearest the location of the warming. (Bgt) FARM STORAGE BINS E HANDLE A FULL LINE PRODUCTS TO STORE, DRY AND HANDLE YOUR GRAIN PRODUCTS • BUCKET ELEVATORS • WET TANKS • GRAIN DRYERS • FEED BINS • STIRATOR SYSTEM • GRAIN BINS • FLEX AUGER SYSTEMS However, this El Nino stands out because it has created a dra matically warmer winter than any in recent memory. For instance. Knight noted, last month was the sixth warmest month in Pennsylvania and fourth on records dating back to 189 S. Last year, Pennsylvania exper ienced the 27th coldest year out of 103 years of record-keeping. It was the 19th driest This data was taken from the NAtional Climate Data Center. We Stock Parts For: GSI, Bazooka, DMC, Farm Fans, and Hutchinson Call Today And Talk To One Of Our Sales People 1 -800-432-0988 “If It’s Worth The Investment, Then You Need The Best” TT€RSH€V EQUIPMENT CO., INC. SYCAMORE IND. PARK VISA 255 PLANE TREE DRIVE flB LANCASTER, PA 17603 717-393-5807 FAX 717-291-1534 Lancaster Farming Saturdays Febretty 2V WfrAW • Novembers have been interest ing. November of 1995 was the third coldest for the state on record, November 1996 was the 4th coldest, and November 1997 the 14th coldest Yet 1996 was the wettest year on record in Pennsyl vania, with S 3 inches of rain statewideonaverageand7S inches in the state’s southeast counties. Statistically, that’s an event that happens once every 30,000 years, said Knight El Nino patterns have occurred in 1982 (the last big El Nino), 1977,1940. 1911, and 1905. Dur ing that time, Pennsylvania overall experienced seven dry springs and one wet one, so the likelihood of a dry spring is “relatively high,” said Knight But being able to predict what the precipitation will be very far in advance is difficult Knight noted. “It’s hard to be very precise about it” he said. Yet if global warming has something to do with the El Nino, precipitation may be the issue rather than temperature. Also, one historical figure that stood out is that in the past 22 years, the state has experienced cod Septembers. According to models, “Septem ber will be cool here—it seems to be the regime,” Knight said. Knight looked at the records of the El Nino years and compared them with the El Nino of 1997-1998. What’s interesting is how much this El Nino compares to 1982-1983. In December 1982, Pennsylvania residents exper ienced one of the mildest winter months on record, followed by dry conditions up and down the eastern seaboard. In August of 1983, there was a drought in the Carolinas. However, in the winter of 1982-1983, the Atlantic water was much colder, compared to this winter, where it is warmer. Could this have an effect on the weather, since in February 1983, two feet of snow covered the southeast Pen nsylvania region from a major Nor’caster? It’s possible. And part of Knight’s forecast “There still could be significant snowfall.” according to his forecast Forecasters can predict the weather in one of four ways: • Persistence approach. It’s one of the simplest methods to make a prediction. The theory is, “what it’s been’s what it will be,” said Knight “You may laugh, but it works more often than not” He noted that the summer of 1992 was wet 1993 was dry, 1994 was wet 1995 was dry, 1996 was wet and 1997 was dry. So using this approach, 1998 could end up hav ing a wet summer. • The analog approach. What happened in past years forms a pat tern. In four of the five past El Ninos, temperatures were above normal in Pennsylvania in Decem ber. The December 1977 El Nino was mild, followed by a winter with considerable snowfall. In eight previous El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSOs, as meteor ologists refer to them), in Match, four of them were cold, three were normal, and one was mild. In seven out of eight times, March has experienced normal or below nor mal temperatures. In those same time periods, there were three cold springtimes, four normal, and one mild. • Numerical approach. This involves analyz ing and interpreting real-tune atmospheric read ings. ocean temperatures, and other factors. This model, ran in the summer of 1997, includes the Tropical SST Anomaly Forecast for 3 Sept 1997, predicting a return to La Nina. This sum mer, temperatures are expected to warm up a bit, then return to cold, and it will continue to get col der and colder. The La Nina has a tremendous correlation with cold winters, Knight indicated. • Statistical analysis approach. This looks at historical figures plus combines a numerical approach. This looks at model likelihoods based on real-time and historical data. But even forecasters have their doubts about what models to believe. According to Knight, even though numerical and statistical models predict precipitation for 1998 to be near or below normal in the summer, his instinct is for precipitation to be “above nor mal,” he noted. Knight noted that information on weather pat terns for 60 counties will be available on the stale’s Internet website soon, with records on temperature, precipitation, growing degree days, and other information. Soybean Conference At the Crops Conference, soybean growers received information about new breeding prog rams at the University of Maryland. According to Dr. W.J. Kenworthy, University of Maryland professor responsible for soybean breeding, new Roundup Ready soybeans have a yield range of slightly lower than conventional varieties. In one test planted at the Wye Research Center on June 24 and July 3, the highest yielding Roundup Ready variety was 43.2 bushels per acre. Conventional yields were 44 bushels per acre. Kenwoithy noted that, in speaking with seed representatives for the Roundup Ready varieties, the lower overall yield is only a temporary situa tion and should improve. “It’s an important new tool for weed manage ment,” he noted, providing a package of new her bicide management techniques that “really is pretty exciting.” He also spoke about grower’s experience with tofu, or food- type soybeans, and with growing soybeans for a new venture, organic dairy products. (Turn to Pago A3B)
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers