—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 11, 1972 16 Beef Cattle Industry May A January 1 USDA inventory report showing a six per cent build-up in replacement heifer numbers and a three per cent jump in beef cow numbers spells trouble for livestock producers in the next two to five years. That was the recent comment of Bill Helming, director of the American Hereford Association’s Cattle Advisory Service. Anticipating trouble with future build-up of cattle numbers in view of today’s favorable cattle prices may seem to be overcautious, Helming conceded, but now is the time to analyze because today’s decisions by commencal cow-calf operators on how much to increase cow herd inventories will directly effect supply and prices three and four years away. Considering past experience, plus studying the January 1 in ventory, it appears that producers should work toward holding numbers m line to maintain the current good health Lancaster Co. Farmers Association Meets The Lancaster County Far mers Association met Tuesday evening at the Farm and Home Center. Plans were made for the summer picnic. A pork barbecue will be held at 7 p.m. Saturday evening, July 29, at West Lam peter Community Fair Grounds. Ten members will go to Washington March 14 and 15 to visit with Congressman Ed Eshelman The Association moved to support the sending of kids to 4-H training conference in Washington in April if funds are needed. Study will be made in having a better informed membership, Sixty hustle-power strong... new John Deere 2030 sets a steadier, fast pace even in heavy going The full meaning of what the new 60-h p 2030 Tractor can do for you becomes apparent only when you put this new tractor in the field What constituted a “borderline” job can now be handled with far greater speed, ease, and steadiness by the new 2030 Jobs do move to completion faster, the tractor works easier —and so do you because you're free of the boredom of straining along every foot of the way You'll like the quick new response of the 2030 to any move of the throttle, and the manner in which it takes its load and holds it without slugging down Best of all, this new 2030 is so versatile and adaptable that its new capacity can be applied to practically any job on your farm Experience the thrill of a 2030 in the field soon. o M. S. Yearsley & Sons West Chester 696-2990 of the beef cattle industry, he said. A sound supply-management guideline calls for cow-calf operators to plan their operations so cow numbers do not increase more than one per cent per year for the next three years. It takes only a small increase in cow numbers to produce a propor tionately larger increase in beef tonnage. For example, from 1962 to 1970, the increase in the U.S. cow herd was nine per cent-about one per cent per year. During this same nine-year period, beef tonnage per cow increased about 41 per cent or 4.6 per cent per year. The major factors contributing to the industry’s recent success in improving prices at the producer, feedlot and dressed beef level are: 1. Holding the rate of increase in the U.S. beef herd at an average of about one per cent per year for the last six years. 2. More than enough feedlot and packing plant capacity. maybe in the form of a monthly newsletter. Plans are-being made for a “Meet the Candidates” meeting in connection with the newly formed legislative district in Chester County and part of Lancaster County. A committee was appointed for this with Ivan Yost as chairman and Nathan Stoltzfus. A committee was appointed to study purchasing bumper stickers which would promote Lancaster County agriculture. Reports were given on FMBAS, Insurance, Livestock and Dairy Marketing. Membership was reported at 1,094, which is 75 short of the 1972 goal. A. B. C. Groff, Inc. New Holland 354-4191 Be Heading for Oversupply, AHA Warns 3. Improved market knowledge and price-making awareness. 4. Weather and government policies affecting the supply of beef and feed grains. 5. A strong and steadily in creasing demand for beef. The January 1 inventory figures, plus all other related indicators, suggest that feeder cattle supplies will continue to be tight through 1972—increasing slightly in 1973. “It is our con sidered opinion there will not be a shortage of feeder calves in 1973,” Helming stated. How well the producer controls the rate of increase in replacement heifers plus the cow culling rate will play a major role in determining the economic future of the beef business during the balance of the ’7o’s, he predicted. Beef cows and heifers that have calved on January 1 totaled 38,725,000 and were up three per cent , while heifers over 500 pounds and kept for beef cow replacement purposes were up six per cent, or over a third of one million head going to the nation’s “cow factory.” If the annual percentage increase of six per cent continues for several years, we could have some definite problems from oversupply. The change in total beef and dairy cattle numbers, as estimated by the USDA, are as follows: January 1, 1972, there were 117,916,000 head of cattle and calves, up three per cent from a year ago and 51,004,000 head of cows and heifers that have calved, up two per cent or 1,057,000 head over the past twelve months. Live cattle imports from Canada and Mexico during 1971 were 968,862 head, which is 15.2 per cent less than live cattle., imports from these two neigh boring countries in 1970. Imports from Mexico were down 20 per cent from 1970, due in large part to the drought. Imports from Canada were up five per cent from 1971. Next year, however, imports of Mexican feeder cattle Shotzberger's Elm 665-2141 Landis Bros. Inc. Lancaster 393-3806 can jump back to pre-drought levels. The states of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, lowa, Montana, Mississippi and Colorado are the top 10 beef cow producting states. Texas has 5,452,000 head of beef cows, representing 14.1 per cent of the total beef cows in the U.S. As for the geographical distributions of beef cow numers throughout the U.S., well over a third (37.5 percent) of the toal beef cows are in the six states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The 11 southeastern states represent 24.3 per cent of the beef cows and 4.2 per cent more than the 11 western states. The bulk of the increase during 1971 in beef cow numbers was in the midwest and southeastern states, with lowa, Nebraska, FINISH THE JOB RIGHT ...WITH PURINA HOG CHOW So you've got your pigs off to a fast start. Don’t stop half way! Finish them out the research-proved Purina way—with Purina Hog Chow and your own grain. Here's why so many hogmen choose Purina Hog Chow to help them finish their hogs for market: • It contains nutrients and growth boosters to help your hogs pile on pounds, fast... and at low cost. • It's highly-fortified with antibiotics to help stimulate growth and ward off costly disease. • Purina Research Farm tests show hogs are ready for market in less than 5 months ... and they make 100 lbs. of pork from about 5 bushels of corn and 46 lbs. of Purina Hog Chow. Feed Purina Hog Chow as a mixed ration with your grain, free choice. Don’t stop half way. Finish your hogs on Purina Hog Chow. Ask for it at our store. John J. Hess, 11, Inc. Ph: 442-4632 Paradise West Willow Farmers Assn., Inc. Ph: 464-3431 West Willow John B. Kurtz Ph: 354-9251 R. D. 3, Ephfata South Dakota, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana leading the pack. The U.S. economy has produced eight million new jobs in the past five years, and total employment is currently at 80.5 million people—an all-time high. Personal “take home” income increased eight per cent in 1971, as compared to 1970. This is why demand for beef has been so good, Helming said. In conclusion, “we believe we can justify a gradual increase in numbers and beef tonnage, but we recommend that cow-calf operators respond positively by using: (1) Stricter culling practices in their cow herd during the next three years to reduce old cow numbers, and (2) Keep fewer replacement heifers to avoid too rapid a build-up in young cow numbers,” he said. Ira B. Londib Ph: 394-7912 1912 Creek Hill Rd., Line. James High & Sons Ph: 3544)301 Gordonville Wenger's Feed Mill Inc. Ph: 367-1195 Rheems
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