—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 11, 1972
16
Beef Cattle Industry May
A January 1 USDA inventory
report showing a six per cent
build-up in replacement heifer
numbers and a three per cent
jump in beef cow numbers spells
trouble for livestock producers
in the next two to five years.
That was the recent comment
of Bill Helming, director of the
American Hereford Association’s
Cattle Advisory Service.
Anticipating trouble with
future build-up of cattle numbers
in view of today’s favorable
cattle prices may seem to be
overcautious, Helming conceded,
but now is the time to analyze
because today’s decisions by
commencal cow-calf operators
on how much to increase cow
herd inventories will directly
effect supply and prices three
and four years away.
Considering past experience,
plus studying the January 1 in
ventory, it appears that
producers should work toward
holding numbers m line to
maintain the current good health
Lancaster Co. Farmers
Association Meets
The Lancaster County Far
mers Association met Tuesday
evening at the Farm and Home
Center.
Plans were made for the
summer picnic. A pork barbecue
will be held at 7 p.m. Saturday
evening, July 29, at West Lam
peter Community Fair Grounds.
Ten members will go to
Washington March 14 and 15 to
visit with Congressman Ed
Eshelman
The Association moved to
support the sending of kids to 4-H
training conference in
Washington in April if funds are
needed.
Study will be made in having a
better informed membership,
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o
M. S. Yearsley & Sons
West Chester 696-2990
of the beef cattle industry, he
said.
A sound supply-management
guideline calls for cow-calf
operators to plan their operations
so cow numbers do not increase
more than one per cent per year
for the next three years. It takes
only a small increase in cow
numbers to produce a propor
tionately larger increase in beef
tonnage.
For example, from 1962 to 1970,
the increase in the U.S. cow herd
was nine per cent-about one per
cent per year. During this same
nine-year period, beef tonnage
per cow increased about 41 per
cent or 4.6 per cent per year.
The major factors contributing
to the industry’s recent success in
improving prices at the producer,
feedlot and dressed beef level
are:
1. Holding the rate of increase
in the U.S. beef herd at an
average of about one per cent per
year for the last six years.
2. More than enough feedlot
and packing plant capacity.
maybe in the form of a monthly
newsletter.
Plans are-being made for a
“Meet the Candidates” meeting
in connection with the newly
formed legislative district in
Chester County and part of
Lancaster County. A committee
was appointed for this with Ivan
Yost as chairman and Nathan
Stoltzfus.
A committee was appointed to
study purchasing bumper
stickers which would promote
Lancaster County agriculture.
Reports were given on FMBAS,
Insurance, Livestock and Dairy
Marketing.
Membership was reported at
1,094, which is 75 short of the 1972
goal.
A. B. C. Groff, Inc.
New Holland 354-4191
Be Heading for Oversupply, AHA Warns
3. Improved market knowledge
and price-making awareness.
4. Weather and government
policies affecting the supply of
beef and feed grains.
5. A strong and steadily in
creasing demand for beef.
The January 1 inventory
figures, plus all other related
indicators, suggest that feeder
cattle supplies will continue to be
tight through 1972—increasing
slightly in 1973. “It is our con
sidered opinion there will not be a
shortage of feeder calves in
1973,” Helming stated.
How well the producer controls
the rate of increase in
replacement heifers plus the cow
culling rate will play a major role
in determining the economic
future of the beef business during
the balance of the ’7o’s, he
predicted.
Beef cows and heifers that have
calved on January 1 totaled
38,725,000 and were up three per
cent , while heifers over 500
pounds and kept for beef cow
replacement purposes were up
six per cent, or over a third of one
million head going to the nation’s
“cow factory.” If the annual
percentage increase of six per
cent continues for several years,
we could have some definite
problems from oversupply.
The change in total beef and
dairy cattle numbers, as
estimated by the USDA, are as
follows: January 1, 1972, there
were 117,916,000 head of cattle
and calves, up three per cent
from a year ago and 51,004,000
head of cows and heifers that
have calved, up two per cent or
1,057,000 head over the past
twelve months.
Live cattle imports from
Canada and Mexico during 1971
were 968,862 head, which is 15.2
per cent less than live cattle.,
imports from these two neigh
boring countries in 1970. Imports
from Mexico were down 20 per
cent from 1970, due in large part
to the drought. Imports from
Canada were up five per cent
from 1971. Next year, however,
imports of Mexican feeder cattle
Shotzberger's
Elm 665-2141
Landis Bros. Inc.
Lancaster 393-3806
can jump back to pre-drought
levels.
The states of Texas, Oklahoma,
Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas,
South Dakota, lowa, Montana,
Mississippi and Colorado are the
top 10 beef cow producting states.
Texas has 5,452,000 head of beef
cows, representing 14.1 per cent
of the total beef cows in the U.S.
As for the geographical
distributions of beef cow numers
throughout the U.S., well over a
third (37.5 percent) of the toal
beef cows are in the six states of
North Dakota, South Dakota,
Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma
and Texas. The 11 southeastern
states represent 24.3 per cent of
the beef cows and 4.2 per cent
more than the 11 western states.
The bulk of the increase during
1971 in beef cow numbers was in
the midwest and southeastern
states, with lowa, Nebraska,
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John J. Hess, 11, Inc.
Ph: 442-4632
Paradise
West Willow
Farmers Assn., Inc.
Ph: 464-3431
West Willow
John B. Kurtz
Ph: 354-9251
R. D. 3, Ephfata
South Dakota, Missouri, Kansas,
Arkansas, Tennessee and
Louisiana leading the pack.
The U.S. economy has
produced eight million new jobs
in the past five years, and total
employment is currently at 80.5
million people—an all-time high.
Personal “take home” income
increased eight per cent in 1971,
as compared to 1970. This is why
demand for beef has been so
good, Helming said.
In conclusion, “we believe we
can justify a gradual increase in
numbers and beef tonnage, but
we recommend that cow-calf
operators respond positively by
using: (1) Stricter culling
practices in their cow herd
during the next three years to
reduce old cow numbers, and (2)
Keep fewer replacement heifers
to avoid too rapid a build-up in
young cow numbers,” he said.
Ira B. Londib
Ph: 394-7912
1912 Creek Hill Rd., Line.
James High & Sons
Ph: 3544)301
Gordonville
Wenger's Feed Mill
Inc.
Ph: 367-1195
Rheems