1929—One of the busiest spots in | the world as stocks soared to unbe- | lievable heights in the great boom was the New York Stock Exchange, | where a man could become a mil- lionaire (on paper) one day and a pauper (net on paper) the next, By WILLIAM C. UTLEY ACTORIESaresmoking! again, carriers are busy, | and we have just passed a Christmas season which may | have been the biggest holiday | business spurt of all time, even including the height of the pre- depression boom. As we enter the new year, we find industry at its highest point since 1929, national income having risen to an estimated 60 billions of dollars or more, the largest in five or six years, and a general relieving of the tension which holds men's nerves during an extended stretch of hard times. For one thing, in the past year the nation was not temporarily hoaxed by business flurries which seem to indicate that recovery had set in, only to subside again and leave the populace disappointed. The movement toward normalcy | has been pretty steady, and seems to have at last spread over the base of the entire economic struc- ture until it has touched every part | of it. # Only time will tell whether, as some close observers believe, the revival is inflationary and beyond the measure created by demand. At | least there are three major prob- lems still confronting us: There were in September, accord- ing to the National Industrial Con- ference board, nearly 9,000,000 per- sons still out of work. Production Indexes Rise. The deficit of the federal govern- ment is increasing at the rate of three or four billions a year. Under normal weather condi- tions—if we should enjoy them dur- ing 1937—we will be faced with the agricultural surplus resulting from the cultivation of 30 or 40 million acres more than we need. The production index of the Fed- eral Reserve board for October shows that industry has reached a level nearly equal to the average for 1928, making the necessary al- lowance for normal seasonal trends. It does not, however, take into con- sideration the fact that we have a population greater by 9,000,000 to- day than we had in 1928. If allow- ance is made for this, the produc- tion index is about 92 per cent of the level of 1928. But in 1932 and 1933 it was only half that of 1828. It said that the heavy industries, which make ‘‘capital goods,’ are far behind, but even they are pick- ing up. Steel, the barometer of these industries, climbed from 41 per cent of production capacity in June, 1935, to 70 per cent capacity for June, 1936, or only about 12 per cent under the boom figure. Absorbing (he Unemployed. The “semi - durable’”’ industries which make goods requiring some considerable investment by the con- sumer led the upswing. Among these are the automobile industry which, it is estimated, produced 4,500,000 cars, more than in any year except 1929, and the electric refrigerator industry, whose sales reached a new all-time peak. Fur- niture, household appliances and others followed the trend. The consumption goods indus- tries, producers of leather, foods, textiles, etc., are experiencing what might be called almost boom times. Employment is not without hope. There are today at least 7,000,000 less unemployed than there were at the low point of March, 1933. They How Reserve Board Looks at Recovery The following indexes, sup- plied by the Federal Reserve board, show how conditions to- day compare with those of 1932, at the bottom of the de- pression: An'l avg. Oct. 36 1932 Industrial Prods. ..109 64 Construction 28 Factory empimt, .. 9 66 Factory payrils, ... 89 47 Car Loadings 56 Dept. Store Sales .. 69 Common Stocks ...119 48 The above figures indicate the degree of recovery through last October. When November leased it is virtually certain that they will show a continua- tion of the upward trend. ing population as well as increased efficiency in industry. The consumption goods industries | offer little in the way of increased | employment, although they will ab- sorb a few in the mild expansions which are forthcoming. Semi-durable consumption goods | industries—the automobiles, refrig- erators, etc.—are working at just | about peak now to supply a demand | which has accumulated over a few years. They can be expected to | contribute little toward the relief of | unemployment. | The one avenue of hope seems to | be the heavy industries, where there is still room for a good deal of ex- | pansion. Especially cheering is the | made in the building industries, | which will sooner or later have to begin correcting the large housing shortage. Since 1929 there had been little modernization and renovation of factories and plants. This cannot keep up forever, or even for very long, for replacements would be needed even to keep up the re- stricted production of depression business and to meet the added 34 Billion Debt. The unemployment problem is not as serious as it appears upon the surface, for even in normal times there are some 2,000,000 unem- ployed. If the present trends con- tinue, we should soon approach this figure. Indeed, there are some ‘‘ex- perts’’ who predict a labor short- age a few years from now. Of real concern is the part of re- covery artificial in character be- cause it is based upon the extraor- dinary spending of the govern- ment. Five per cent of the national income today is coming out of gov- ernment bonds, a situation which, if continued, is hardly sound. This brings us to the problem of reducing the federal deficit. The national debt of about 34 bil- lions is some 8 billions over the old- time 1919 high. Interest rates are lower, so that today the cost of carrying this debt is actually about 20 per cent lower than the cost of carrying the smaller debt in the years after the war, Despite the fact that the debt could be raised to 40 billions without necessitating greater interest pay- ments than the post-war debt, diffi- cult credit conditions eventually face governments which do not bal- ance their books. When credit col- lapses, prices go up quickly; con- versely, savings, investments, insur- ance, and real wages hit the skids. It is true, however, that as em- ployment conditions improve, the necessity for government spending decreases, while, on the other hand, the added recovery brings higher tax collections. There are some op- timists who expect sufficient contin. uation of recovery te permit the balancing of the budget within the year, Farmers Face Surplus, great crash of 1929, the ‘jobless army,” bound to fight for a meager existence against terrific odds and discouraging circumstances. 1937 Manufacturing plants once more boom as a new recovery gets under way. There is an improving demand for tion of the summer drouths., The of American farms is based upon an export market which bin. If the nation were to allow com- mon economic forces to work until they had eliminated the surplus s0 disastrous to all farmers that it recovery. plus. problems of their own, as we have well seen in the last year or two. What can be done to recoup some mains to be seen. It appears at this time that a return to high tariff pol- icies would be disastrous to cotton, as to certain manufacturers and producrs of mineral products. Mr, Hull's reciprocal trade treaties, with which we are now experimenting, provement. What If War Breaks Out? It may be that the present boom will continue and get out of hand as the past booms have, resulting in a new depression. The two checks ordinarily effective in curb- ing the momentum of a boom after real demand has been fulfilled are tightening credit and soaring inter- est rates. But today we have a new situation. With half the world's sup- cheaply as possible. The last boom and the depression which followed it are largely trace- able to the World war. other great war break out-—and this seems not unlikely, in the face of conditions in the Eastern hemi- sphere—it will take all the brains and courage of the government and of business leaders to prevent an- other vicious business cycle. Meanwhile statistics indicate that the average family has not found it any easier to live during the last few months of recovery. In the third quarter of 1936 payrolls dropped a little while the cost of living continued to gain, according to a survey made by the North- western National Life Insurance company. The average family, earning and speuding $120 a month in 1033, saw its monthly income rise more than $18 in the next {wo and one-half years, to $136.73 by the second quar- ter of 1936, the survey reveals. Due to the accompanying rise in prices it then cost $133.84 per month to su the same scale of living which only required $120 to pay for at 1033 levels, leaving a modest gain of $2.89 in the family pocket- book, as surplus of income over out- the next three inonths, how- the cost of maintaining the ale of living rose another two dollars, to $135.97, while the family’s monthly earnings declined $2.21, reducing the average house- hold’s income to $134.52, thus turn- ing the previous surplus into a defi cit of $1.45. © Western Newspaper Union, In ever, same SC SARA drde fr ko ok ok ek ok kk of STAR DUST Movie « Radio b 222222222 2 2 F COURSE you've seen Sid Silvers, and laughed at him, in many a movie; now you're going to hear him on the air with Al Jolson, whom you've also seen in pictures, but not recently. Silvers is something new under the sun. He writes the very funny lines he speaks; that is, he makes them up, but he doesn’t put tim down on paper. He just says them. Somebody else takes them down. And if he gets a very funny idea during the final filming of a scene, in it goes and the scene is done over again. But what havoc that will cre- ate if he forgets himself and does it on the air, since radio scripts have to be written and re-written, Now it's Claudette Colbert and her to adopt a baby from that famous orphanage in Chicago. Irene Dunne and her hus- band were the latest couple to do it—and Irene, worse luck, had such a bad cold during the first few days of the little | girl's presence in her a a new home that she couldn't go near the infant. Meanwhile Claudette has been given the lead in the screen version of “Tovarich,” the successful stage play; she should be grand in it. wan en Claire Luce, who was Fred taire's first dancing partner after his sister deserted him for matri- mony, is in Hollywood, with yearn- ings to become a motion picture actress. On the stage she got along beautifully with nimble Fred, but she's not making tests for RKO, so apparently she isn't being con- sidered for his partner on the screen. Practically everyone else has been, apparently! The blonde Miss Luce has a life- time on the stage behind her—that is, she has her lifetime, as she started at the age of four. She was one of the six or eight chorus girls in the musical show in which Mir- jam Hopkins and various other cel- ebrities were also chorus girls—and what tales they all tell about each Claudette Colbert the It looks as if James Cagney would a motion picture company this time, but in a new venture. He is talking of reviving the theater in small towns, so you may see him in per- son before long. It is said that Robert Montgomery and Pat O'Brien may appear with him, as well as his brother Bill. Meanwhile his first picture for Grand National, Is completed at last. an How do you like the idea of a picture with Robert Taylor, Spencer and the author is the man who wrote “Journey's End," so the story ought to be good. Once upon a time studio executives would have screamed at the idea of putting three such players in one picture, aes Wo Have you been missing “Minnie from the screen? If you have, don't worry— she'll return. You see, her voice—that who plays “Minnie’s voice — got married and went off on & honeymoon. Being the voice for one of Walt Disney's popular characters is a pretty good job and it means a contract for the actual owner of the voice, too, because the public is so familiar with the sounds that Mickey and his co-play- ers make. Maybe some day we'll see that Disney feature-length picture that has been talked about for so long, “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs." Hom he finished “The Gay Desperado” Nino Martini has Youn Erupsling around, sie i concerts, ying east eac Ve his broadcast—so im 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2% ny Glory Vs. Undernourishment. precedented, the German peo- ple must, it appears, go on ra- tions, cutting down their daily consumption of breadstuffs and fats, with the prospect of still more stringent restrictions. photographs —keep right on preaching that such compul- sory undernourish- ment is all for the greater glory of the vaterland. I know of but one historic parallel to match this. It is to be found in Mother Goose, where it is poetically set forth: There was a piper had a cow And he had naught to give her So he pulled out his pipes and played her a tune And bade the cow consider. * ® * Signs of Disapproval NCE, in Montana, 1 heard two cowboys talking about the fath- er of the sweetheart of one of them, “I've got a kind of a sneaking idea that Millie's paw don't care deeply for me,” said the lover. “What makes you think so—some- thing he said?” “No, because he don't never say nothing to me, just sniffs. But the other night I snuck over there to see Millie, and, as 1 was coming away, I happened to look back and the old man was shoveling my tracks out of the front yard.” The archbishop of Canterbury is likely to wake up any morning and find the British public shoveling his tracks out of the front yards, Irvin 8. Cobb International “‘Messifications.” UST about the time the contest- ing groups in Spain lose the twenty or thirty confusing names the correspondents have hung on them and resolve themselves into the army that's going to take Ma- drid not later than 3 o'clock tomor- row afternoon and the army that's going to keep Madrid until the cows come home, a fresh complication breaks out in China. General Chang gets into a mixup with General Chi- ang, possibly on the ground that he's a typographical error, and the red forces of the north get all twist- ed up with the white army of the north and the pink army of the north by northeast and so on and so forth, until the special writers run out of colors. Just one clear point stands out of the messification. When the dust clears away some small brown brothers wearing the Japanese uni- form will be found sitting on top of the heap. China's poison is Nip- pon’'s meat, every pop. Rationalizing the Calendar. HE plan to adopt a rational cal- endar is finding favor in admin- istration circles at Washington, as in European countries. Every time this proposition — which is so sensible and seemingly unattainable—bobs up, I think of the little story of the venerable Ala- bama pessimist who dropped into the general store just in time to hear the proprietor reading aloud from the newspaper that the proj- eight days each had been laid for “I'm ag'in’ it,” declared the aged one. “It'd be jest my luck for that extry month to come in the win- fodder." Stunts in the Films. OR ordinary film stunts, current prices are: Tree fall, $25; stair fall, $50 (each mid-air plane change, $200; high auto, $75 being knocked down by locomotive, $100; trick horse rid- ing, $125; crashing a plane, $1,500. It doesn’t cost a cent, though, for practically every slightly shopworn leading man, on or off the screen, to crave to play “Hamlet” on,the stage. But it is almost invariably expensive for the producers who occasionally satisfy these morbid cravings. IRVIN 8. COBB. © Western Newspaper Union, Sha Policeman (to woman driver) Hey, you, what's the matter with you, anyway? Lady (in traffic jam) — Well, officer, you see I just had my car washed and I can't do a thing with itl Well-Expressed “What a long letter you have there. “Yes, sixteen pages from Aileen.” “What does she say?” “That she will tell me the news when she sees me.” — Pearson's Weekly. Moral Courage Moral courage is more worth GENUINE QUICK-ACTING BAYER ASPIRIN 17 A 1aBLET! Bayer Tablets Dissolve Almost Instantly In 2 seconds by slop wateh us genuine For Amazingly Quick Relief Get Genuine Bayer Aspirin You can now get Genuine BAYER ASPIRIN for virtually 1¢ a tablet at any drug store, Two full dozen now, in a flat pocket tin, for 25¢! Try this new package. Enjoy the real Bayer article now without thought of price! 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Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers