Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, June 28, 2003 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Wednesday, June 25, 2003 Com 06/24/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 *CASH* JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 MAR MAY JUL SEP DEC DEC Total 06/24/03 Soybeans 06/24/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 *CASH* JUL 03 AUG 03 SEP 03 NOV 03 JAN 04 MAR 04 MAY 04 JUL 04 NOV 04 Total Volume Open_lnt 06/24/03 101722 227141 Soybean Meal 06/24/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 *CASH* JUL 03 AUG 03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 Total 06/24/03 June 20,2003 SUPPLY, DEMAND HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH LOW MILK PRICES A friend of mine recently sent me an article that suggested sup ply and demand had nothing to do with the recent collapse in farm gate milk prices. “It’s im ports.” the author stated, not High 2492 2402 2356 2364 Open 2392 2350 2350 2420 2460 2480 2404 2420 2390 Volume Qpen_lnt 118465 379055 High 6305 6450 6400 6060 5734 5750 5750 5730 5730 5550 Open 6370 6334 6000 5660 5710 5710 5720 5700 5510 Open High Low Last 19600 19600 19600 1977 1951 1975 1955 1934 1953 1951 1938 1853 1705 1695 1712 1730 1710 1720 1725 1715 1665 1675 1880 1736 1719 1723 1735 1735 1745 1730 1715 1665 1675 Volume Open_lnt 61528 161677 supply and demand that drove milk prices lower. protein imports (using a butterfat Now had this person taken Ag conversion )- And commercial dis economies 101 at Penn State, appearance of m.lk well that is ... . the one number I have the least they would have realized that ,m- confidence in It is su dto ports plus domestic production reflect both commercial exports (and beginning stocks) equals and domestic consumption. But supply. If imports and U.S. pro- there is enough creative account duction grew and demand fal- big in that number to make it tered, one. would expect milk null and void. ) lUi4U.UI4tIUUmMAtUmiULII.IUi4U.UI4tlUUmMAtUmiULll. LOW 2492 2384 2342 2350 2412 2454 2472 2404 2412 2390 2424 2464 2482 2404 2420 2390 Low 6305 6354 6320 6000 5654 5700 5696 5684 5690 5510 1853 1705 1692 1705 1720 1710 1720 1720 1715 1665 1675 Lean Hogs Date 06/24/03 ♦CASH* 06/25/03 Jul 03 06/25/03 Aug 03 06/25/03 Oct 03 06/25/03 Dec 03 06/25/03 Feb 04 06/25/03 Apr 04 06/25/03 May 04 06/25/03 Jun 04 06/25/03 Jul 04 Chge -2 -4 + 2 + 2 Last 2492 2386 2346 2352 2412 2454 2474 2404 2416 2390 +2 unch + 6 Composite Volume Open_lnt 06/24/03 7528 44645 Live Cattle +4 unch Date 06/24/03 *CASH* 06/25/03 Jun 03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 06/25/03 Chge + 65 + 70 + 64 + 60 + 62 + 56 +46 +44 +42 + 44 Last 6305 6426 6384 6056 5722 5736 5744 5730 5726 5550 Composite Volume Open_lnt 06/24/03 7295 106172 Pork Bellies Date 06/24/03 "CASH* 0 980098009800 +2OO 06/25/03 .1 uI 03 9210 9245 9070 9225 -47 06/25/03 Aug 03 9030 907088859070 -15 06/25/03 Feb 04 7985 79857985 7985 +lO 06/25/03 Mar 04 8070 807080708070 unch Chge ’-100 + 26 + 19 1878 1735 1717 1720 1733 1732 1742 1730 • Composite Volume Open_lnt 06/24/03 958 3377 Oats 06/24/03 'CASH* 06/25/03 JUL 03 06/25/03 SEP 03 06/25/03 DEC 03 06/25/03 MAR 04 06/25/03 MAY 04 1715 1665 1675 Total 06/24/03 prices to drop. And that is exact ly what happened in 2002. The next logical question is, how much were imports and con sumption in 2002, and how much did they change from the year be fore? That’s where the answer gets a little tricky. It’s true that USDA measures milk supply and demand much like they did 20 years ago. They try to come up with one measure of dairy imports on a “milk equivalent” basis. Of course the conversions they use don’t even reflect the recent growth in milk ~ vw• if ¥ . * —f« Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge ~ „ * ** & Volume Open_lnt 0 0 2910 8279 3331 20247 888 8947 284 5052 39 1036 25 718 31 131 16 216 4 19 0 638063806380 6447 648063956472 6487 657064256562 5670 572556025705 5435 547554055475 5730 577557155775 5865 591058505905 6150617061256170 6350 635063406342 6320 632063006320 ~ it- i- t i . Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume op(m 0 0 839 3659 0 734373437343 unch 7260 736772407350 +lOO 6960 711269607110 6832 696068206945 6960 698569506980 6925 705569227035 7250 737072507347 7440 752574407520 7500757275007572 6960701569607000 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Dec 03 Feb 04 Apr 04 Jun 04 ir- ui i Previous Previous Open High Low Last Cnge ~ , ~ 1 H & Volume Open_lnt 0 0 481 ' 2291 457 976 20 108 0 2 Open 1494 1354 1390 1440 1450 Volume Open_lnt 1524 5582 So how do I know what im ports and consumption were in 2002? Well, here goes. I have a spreadsheet in my computer that looks at imports of 30 different HTS codes of dairy imports. Unfortunately, that isn’t detailed enough to look at quota, over quota, and nonquota im ports. So my list of things to do will likely expand in the coming months. Anyway, I downloaded the imports of these dairy prod ucts from USDA and then esti mated the pounds of protein, but terfat, and other solids that were in these products. My results in dicate that between 2001 and 2002, imports of protein were up 4.3 percent, imports of butterfat were down 6.8 percent, and im ports of other dairy solids (lactose and minerals) were up 11 per cent. If you look at just imports of (Turn to Page A 26) High 1580 1504 1366 1400 1440 1450 LOW 1580 1454 1350 1374 1440 1450 Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA re cord sheets or to develop-livestock feed cost data, here’s last week’s average costs of various ingredients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Penn sylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Com, No.2y 2.93 bu., 5.25 cwt. Wheat, N 0.2 3.14 bu., 5.25 cwt. Barley, N 0.3 2.03 bu., 4.33 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 2.02 bu., 6.31 cwt, Soybeans, No.l 5.89 bu., 9.83 cwt. Ear Corn 89.33 ton, 4.47 cwt. Alfalfa Hay 175.00 ton, 8.75 cwt. Mixed Hay 160.00 ton, 8.0 cwt. Timothy Hay 180.00 ton, 9.0 cwt. 28 3318 690 50936 73 22817 19590 4992 2760 654 1273 1009 492 314 15 Chge -52 -22 + 12 -6 unch unch Last 1580 1456 1352 1376 1440 1450 v«4 * i
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers