Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 1,2003
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, February 27, 2003
Com
02/26/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
DEC 04
Total
02/26/03
Soybeans
02/26/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
MAY 04
NOV 04
Total
02/26/03
Soybean Meal
02/26/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02 '27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
OCT 03
DEC 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
04
04
04
04
04
04
MAY
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
DEC
Total
02/26/03
HAtsiffp Ovthtk
Ken Bailey
Professor of
-M Agricultural Economics,
Dairy Marketing and Policy
i' -
Feb. 21,2003
BUTTER, CHEESE FALL
BELOW SUPPORT
• Chicago butter falls to $1
per pound.
• Block cheese is $1.06 per
pound
• Global prices improve.
As if things could not get any
better, Chicago prices for cheese
and butter fell below support
High
2416
2322
2342
2372
2392
2400
2452
2480
2496
2400
Open
2316
2334
2370
2390
2394
2450
2480
2496
2400
Volume Oponlnt
125862 464251
High
5710
5834
5836
5824
5700
5490
5272
5280
5290
5290
5050
Open
5784
5784
5780
5680
5434
5240
5260
5280
5280
5050
Volume Open_lnt
72180 232860
Open High
18100
1805 1832
1790 1810
1765 1788
1718 1738
1665 1680
1585 1600
1570 1585
1577 1578
1585 1585
1585 1585
1575 1575
1590 1590
1590 1590
1588 1588
1593 1593
Volume Open_lnt
33746 173324
price levels. Block cheese fell
from $l.OB per pound to $1.02 by
week’s end. The support price on
blocks is $1.1314 per pound. Bar
rel cheese bounced around $1.04
per pound. That compares to a
support price of $1.1014 per
pound. But butter fell all the way
to $1 per pound by Friday, a full
nickel per pound below support.
What’s going on here?
Low
2416
2296
2320
2350
2370
2376
2434
2474
2482
2394
Last
2416
2302
2322
2352
2370
2382
2434
2474
2484
2400
Last
5710
5814
5820
5806
5684
5460
5256
5266
5280
5280
5032
LOW
5710
5764
5764
5744
5644
5434
5234
5254
5260
5280
5032
Last
18] 00
1809
1793
] 775
1728
1674
1588
1575
1575
1580
1585
1575
1590
1590
1588
1593
Low
18100
1797
1778
1758
1713
1657
1580
1566
1571
1580
1585
1575
1590
1590
1588
1593
Part of this could be because of
Monday’s snowstorm that dis
rupted milk deliveries through
out the East Coast. In Pennsylva
nia, I could see many farms
covered with 2-3 feet of snow.
While the larger roads in Penn
sylvania were kept open, many
smaller roads were not passable
until Tuesday. No doubt many
farms had difficulty digging out,
particularly in southeast Pennsyl
vania.
The same was true throughout
the Northeast. Thus, the market
is dealing with disruptions at
many plant locations.
Traders in Chicago likely had
orders to hold off on trades.
Trading volumes this week at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
looked weak. Also, traders have a
tendency to back off if prices are
falling. This puts more down
ward pressure on the market.
One would expect market
prices to move closer to support
levels, particularly for butter. For
the week Feb. 17-21, only butter
from the West Coast made it into
Lean Hogs
Date
02/26/03 *CASH*
02/27/03 Apr 03
02/27/03 May 03
02/27/03 Jun 03
02/27/03 Jul 03
02/27/03 Aug 03
02/27/03 Oct 03
02/27/03 Dec 03
02/27/03 Feb 04
02/27/03 Apr 04
Chge
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/26/03 6906 39186
Live Cattle
Date
02/26/03 *CASH*
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
Chge
unch
+22
+ 30
+ 6
+2O
+ 24
+ 16
+ 6
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/26/03 14896 99477
-14
unch
unch
Pork Bellies „ „
. n u- ui i Previous Previous
Date Open High Low Last Chge y o | ume Qp en j nt
0 0
243 925
02/26/03 *CASH* 0 8100 8100 8100
02/27/03 Mar 03 8825 887587408807
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
Chge
unch
-8
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/26/03 535 2699
Oats
02/26/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
02/27/03
+ 7
unch
unch
unch
unch
unch
Total
02/26/03
U- ui . Previous Previous
OpenH.gh Low LastChgc VoUime ope n_lnt
0 0
3825 19534
124 2528
1928 9475
647 2962
250 2986
70 1154
42 464
10 75
9 8
0 456845684568 +8
5365 538553105327 -68
5900 593558805920 -30
6220 625061926212 -40
6100 611060656070 -50
5980 5995 59455952 -38
5155 519051355145 -20
5080 512050525052 -43
5490 549054705485 -5
5687 569056705690 unch
„ _ T , Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume open
0 0
0 791379137913
Feb 03 8170 818080128062
Apr 03 7742 775575927600
Jun 03 7085 709069356962
Aug 03 6785 679766526657
Oct 03 6995 699568856910
Dec 03 7100 7105 70007022
Feb 04 7240 724071707187
May 03 8990 90408892 8970
Jul 03 "9000 902089109002
Aug 03 1 8700 870087008700
Feb 04 8000 800080008000
Mar 04 7990 799079907990
Open
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 0 3
JUL 0 3
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
2160
2036
1894
1640
1556
1620
Volume Open_lnt
3612 6705
the dairy price support program.
If butter from the Midwest makes
its way into this program, expect
Chicago prices to firm a few pen
nies a pound.
One thing on the plus side is
that global prices are firming. A
severe drought in Australia and
level production in New Zealand
is having an impact on dairy
trade. Butter is 59 cents per
pound in international markets.
While that doesn’t make U.S.
dairy farmers particularly ex
cited, prices seem better for non
fat dry milk.
At the present time, global
powder prices are equal to West
Coast prices (80 cents per
pound). That makes it more like
ly the U.S. will begin to export
commercially nonfat dry milk.
This will help empty large gov
ernment warehouses.
Cold storage report for the end
of January indicates that butter
inventories are up 104 percent
over a year ago. American cheese
inventories are up 11 percent,
and total cheese inventory is up 9
+54
100
-50
-52
-18
+45
+5O
+4O
High
2326
2210
2064
1906
1650
1556
1620
Low
2326
2146
2032
1894
1630
1550
1620
percent. This had a depressing
impact on dairy futures. Septem
ber Class 111 futures are trading
at $11.72 per CWT (Feb. 21),
well below the high of $13.50 at
the end of 2002.
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Corn, No 2y 2 96 bu , 5.30 cwt
Wheat, No 2 3 27 bu., 5,46 cwt
Barley, N 0.3 2.17 bu , 4.63 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 2.04 bu., 6.37 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 5.68 bu,, 9.49 cwt
Ear Corn 89.01 ton, 4.45 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 160.00 ton, 8.0 cwt.
Mixed Hay 138.75 ton, 6.94 cwt
Timothy Hay 138.75 ton, 6.94 cwt.
2251
53768
23351
9511
6367
3171
1058
2669
7883
2753
1059
379
143
10
1310
436
26
263
27
Chge
unch
+ 36
+ 16
-10
+ 4
Last
2326
2200
2064
1900
1540
1550
1620
-10
unch