Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 30, 2002 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG. & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Wednesday, November 27. 2002 Com 11/26/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 *CASH* DEC 02 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 MAR 04 MAY 04 JUL 04 11/27/02 DEC Total 11/26/02 Soybeans 11/26/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 ♦CASH* JAN 03 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 AUG 03 SEP 03 NOV 03 JAN 04 MAR 04 NOV 04 Total 11/26/02 Soybean Meal *CASH* DEC 02 JAN 03 11/26/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 Total 11/26/02 Nov. 22,2002 MARKET REPORTS LOOK BLEAK • Cow numbers higher. • Butter and cheese stocks high. • Futures prices look better. The market news does not look favorable to milk prices, at least not for the rest of the year. The milk. «praditftitt» -sKiwa High 2482 2432 2460 2474 2494 2446 2420 2476 2486 2490 Open 2424 2456 2470 2484 2440 2414 2470 2486 2490 2410 2410 Volume Open_lnt 122984 472932 High 5595 5810 5764 5674 5630 5500 5292 5134 5112 5120 4900 Open 5780 5740 5650 5594 5500 5292 5124 5112 5120 4900 Volume Open_lnt 33166 214019 Open High Low Last 16400 16400 16400 1683 1666 1671 1696 1677 1684 1675 1690 1694 1675 1660 1630 1595 1550 1540 1521 1531 1555 1595 1694 1675 1660 1630 1600 1550 1540 1521 1531 1555 1595 Volume Qpen_lnt 45587 136563 cow numbers in U.S. dairy herds are on the rise. And the cold stor age report indicates cheese and butter stocks are well ahead of year-ago levels. More milk, more cheese, more butter, and lower milk prices! First, the milk production re port. October milk production was up just 2.3 percent over a Low 2482 2404 2440 2452 2464 2432 2404 2462 2486 2490 Last 2482 2406 2442 2454 2470 2432 2406 2464 2486 2490 2400 2400 Last 5595 5772 5726 5622 5566 5470 5292 5076 5112 5120 4874 Low 5595 5760 5714 5620 5560 5470 5292 5070 5112 5120 4874 1676 1655 1643 1613 1578 1523 1520 1521 1531 1555 1595 1681 1657 1647 1615 1578 1523 1523 1521 1531 1555 1595 lower than in previous months, which is a good sign. But a closer look reveals a disturbing fact: cow numbers increased 8,000 head above the previous month. The market was expecting cow numbers to continue a downward trend that started in September. It is not a good idea to disappoint the market. Nine of 20 states in USDA’s list of top dairy states increased cow numbers in October 2002 over October 2001. Most of those states are in the West. But some are from the Midwest and East; New York, Ohio, Illinois, lowa, and Virginia. The cold storage report indi cated that both butter and cheese inventories in October were well ahead of year-ago levels. Butter stocks, at 164.4 million pounds, are 63 percent higher than a year ago. American cheese stocks were at 505.5 million pounds, about 9 Lean Hogs Date 11/26/02 *CASH* 11/27/02 Dec 02 11/27/02 Feb 03 11/27/02 Apr 03 11/27/02 May 03 11/27/02 Jun 03 11/27/02 Jul 03 11/27/02 Aug 03 11/27/02 Oct 03 11/27/02 Dec 03 Chge -10 -14 -4 -10 -10 -4 unch unch unch unch Composite Volume Open_lnt 11/26/02 8177 47025 unch Live Cattle Date 11/26/02 *CASH* 0710071007100 11/27/02 Dec 02 7467 75007465 7497 11/27/02 Feb 03 7855 7872 7835 7870 11/27/02 Apr 03 7795 781077657802 11/27/02 Jun 03 7195 7227 7177 7222 11/27/02 Aug 03 7030 706770157050 11/27/02 Oct 03 7140 720071407157 Chge -13 +42 + 32 + 14 + 6 -4 +2 -24 -16 -30 +2 Composite Volume Open_lnt 11/26/02 14563 129342 Pork Bellies Date 11/26/02 *CASH* 0 740074007400 -200 11/27/02 Feb 03 8420 8650 84208612 +252 11/27/02 Mar 03 8340 8545 8340 8505 +250 11/27/02 May 03 8487 56508487 8600 +2lO 11/27/02 Jul 03 *BBOO 8820 8800 8800 +250 11/27/02 Aug 03 8350 8600 8350 8600 +3OO Chge -50 + 3 + 3 unch -5 -3 Composite Volume Open_lnt 11/26/02 472 2328 Oats -7 -12 11/26/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 11/27/02 -6 unch unch unch -5 Total 11/26/02 „ TW . . T , . Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|<jme openln( 0 0 3655 16699 2921 17825 1211 5773 128 1487 127 3587 78 999 15 548 38 87 4 20 0412941294129 4640469045954675 5400 548253855410 5870 593058655897 6200 624062006220 6525 659065256582 6257 629562556295 6040 606560256035 5267 529552655280 5190 519551905192 „ ... . ¥ . Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|umeopen Int 0 0 6617 27754 4413 51999 2011 28074 1089 16391 407 4452 26 672 r\ n- ui i 4 ru Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Volumeopen Int 0 0 442 2007 22 157 4 63 1 91 2 10 Open *CASH* DEC 02 MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 MAR 04 1912 1982 1936 1794 1540 1570 1580 Volume Qpen_lnt 2201 7257 Total cheese inventories at the end of October were ahead 8 per cent relative to a year ago. These stocks, however, don’t yet reflect the inventory drawdown that could be expected from the holi day season. So there is still hope! USDA announced the Class I base milk price for December. It’s $10.52 per CWT, down 8 cents per CWT from last month. That implies a Boston Class I price of $13.77 per CWT and therefore a December 2002 MILC payment rate of $1.43 per CWT. Thus, a higher MILC payment rate will help offset lower market prices. This bad news may be short lived. The futures markets are showing that Class 111 prices will rise above $lO per CWT starting in January and peak at a robust $13.16 per CWT in September 2003. One can interpret this to mean that the market is expect ing the milk supply to slow down -463 +95 +55 +65 +35 +62 +55 +35 +2O +2 High 2062 1940 2010 1960 1796 1540 1570 1580 Low 2062 1912 1982 1936 1792 1540 1570 1580 Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA re cord sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week's average costs of various ingredients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Penn sylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Com, No.2y 3.01 bu., 5.39 cwt. Wheat, N 0.2 3.51 bu., 5.87 cwt Barley, N 0.3 —1.91 bu., 4.08 cwt Oats, N 0.2 —1.85 bu., 5.77 cwt Soybeans, No.l 5.35 bu., 8.93 cwt Ear Com 76.73 ton, 3.84 cwt Alfalfa Hay 131.75 ton, 6.59 cwt Mixed Hay —129.25 ton, 6.46 cwt Timothy Hay —128.75 ton, 6.44 cwt I.*** ■**>*.**<»»■»*MM»»»■**,»»**'•»» Chge + 6 +22 +24 + 14 Last 2062 1940 2006 1944 1792 1540 1570 1580 + 42 + 10 unch unch
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers