Colorado’s Drought/Water Shortage Could Be Worst In 25 Years FORT COLLINS, Colo. - According to researchers at the Colorado Climate Center at Col orado State University, the state could witness water shortages this year unlike anything resi dents have experienced in 25 years. The state’s lowest snowpack accumulations in decades pre ceded by several years of below average precipitation followed by a dry spring contributed to this year’s lower than normal reser voir storage, low stream flows and extremely dry soils. The summer’s monsoon moisture could help reduce short-term needs but will not likely have a large impact on Colorado’s drought situation. “What really stands out with this year’s, drought are the ex tremely low snowpack levels combined with the lack of reser voir storage in several basins,” said state climatologist and pro fessor of atmospheric sciences Roger Pielke Sr. “It will take an Low Risk Of Head Scab Disease On Wheat In Ohio WOOSTER, Ohio Much of Ohio’s wheat crop may have es caped the risk of head scab dis ease, a bright spot in what’s shaping up to be a rather dismal growing season for crop produc ers. Pat Lipps, an Ohio State Uni versity Extension plant patholo gist with the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Cen ter, said that predictions for head scab development throughout southern and central Ohio have been rated low or moderately low. The current area of concern is in counties throughout the north west portion of the state, where heavy rains have saturated heavy clay soils, creating conditions conducive for head scab develop ment. Lipps said it could be a week before a definitive determination is made as to whether or not the crop in that region will develop the economically damaging dis ease. “So far, everything has been good for us. Most of the state has made it through the critical peri od,” said Lipps. “The northwest comer of the state is where we are concerned right now. Basical ly recent warm weather and high levels of precipitation have made it favorable for infection and if that trend continues, there could be a possibility of scab.” Counties being watched for head scab risk include Fulton, Williams, Defiance, north Henry, north Wood and parts of Sandus ky. The assessment of head scab risk was made using mathemati cal models developed by Ohio State crop specialists that use weather data to determine the probability of disease develop ment. Researchers collected data from 15 weather observation sta tions in Ohio, southern Michigan New York Schedules Antique Show HAUPPAUGE, N.Y. The old makes the news in St. James, Long Island on Sunday, July 21 with the Ninth Annual Smith town Township Summer Antiques and Collectibles Show and Sale. Porcelain, vintage radios, sterling, glassware and other memorabilia will be among the items offered from 10 a.m. until 4 p.m. on the grounds of historic Mills Pond House. Admission is $3 (children under 12 are free) with proceeds going to the non-for-profit Smithtown Township Arts Council to allow it to expand its community outreach. exceptionally wet summer to make much of an impact on this year’s drought.” By June, only two of the state’s 86 measurement sites had snow remaining, leaving Colorado’s statewide snowpack at two per cent of average. Snowpack across most of the state melted during the later half of May, approxi mately two months earlier than usual. In many parts of the state the snow melt was absorbed by dry ground before making it to streams. Snow melt was also hampered by windy days and low humidities resulting in a substan tial loss of water to sublimation. According to the Natural Re sources Conservation Service, May marked the ninth consec utive month of below average precipitation leaving statewide totals at 34 percent of average. Southwestern Colorado continues to report the lowest precipitation accumulations. Early water demands, along with below average inflows, con- and eastern Indiana. One model analyzes the dura tion of precipitation in hours and the number of hours the air tem perature is between 60 degrees and 86 degrees Fahrenheit for seven days prior to flowering. It is during this time when the fun gus develops spores. Lipps said the model has been 78 percent accurate in determin ing low level of disease develop ment. The second model calculates the number of hours when the air temperature is between 60 de grees and 86 degrees Fahrenheit for seven days prior to flowering, when the relative humidity is above 90 percent and when the air temperature is between 60 de grees and 86 degrees for 10 days after flowering. The model addresses the time when the fungus develops spores, when infection occurs and when disease develops. It has proven to be 84 percent accurate in deter mining economic levels of disease development. “We talked to a plant patholo gist in Pennsylvania recently, and they are very close to our predic tions,” said Lipps. “Indiana is about the same as Ohio, and Michigan right now is entering a point of concern. Pathologists in Ontario (Canada) are very con cerned about head scab right now, because the same sort of showers hitting northwest and southern Michigan are going right over Ontario.” Head scab, or Fusarium head blight, can be devastating for wheat producers. The disease is likely to occur when warm, wet weather persists during the crop’s flowering stage in May and June. The disease infects the wheat heads, causing shrunken, light weight kernels, thereby reducing the quality and feeding value of the grain. The fungus that causes tributed to a substantial decrease in Colorado’s reservoir storage over the last month. Statewide storage decreased from 86 per cent of average on May 1 to 73 percent of average on June 1. The combined San Juan, Ani mas, Dolores and San Miguel ba sins reported the lowest average storage at 57 percent. Other ba sins with below average storage include the Rio Grande at 64 per cent, the Arkansas at 66 percent and the Colorado at 69 percent. The state’s best storage is in the Gunnison basin which is report ing 95 percent of average. According to the Colorado Di vision of Water Resources, reser voirs are also being used earlier than average this year to meet ir rigation demands. Some reser voirs could be empty by the end of the summer without signifi cant summer rainstorms. A dry May brought additional decreases to the already low streamflqw forecasts across Colo rado. According to the Colorado the disease also produces a chem ical in the infected grain called vomitoxin that is toxic to live stock and humans. According to a North Dakota State University study. United States direct and indirect eco nomic loss from head scab from 1998-2000 was estimated at $2.7 billion. Ohio’s losses were esti mated at over $315 million for the three-year period. Ohio’s last major head scab epidemic oc curred in 1996 when yields dropped to 39 bushels per acre. Ohio’s Wheat Production Continues To Shrink COLUMBUS, Ohio Ohio’s first wheat production forecast is down 10 percent compared to last year, continuing the state’s trend of a shrinking crop the past severed years. According to the Ohio Agricul tural Statistics Service Farm Re port, growers are expected to produce 54.5 million bushels of wheat, a 5.9 million-bushel drop from 2001. Average state yield is expected to reach 66 bushels per acre, one bushel less than last year’s harvest. Matt Roberts, an Ohio State University agricultural econo mist, said poor profitability com pared to com and soybeans might be a factor behind the steady decline in Ohio’s wheat production. “When you compare wheat to corn and soybeans, for most places in Ohio, wheat is not going to be as profitable of a crop,” said Roberts. “Farmers who look at wheat production one year at a time see they just make more money running a com/soybean rotation. When you look at a one-year time window, wheat will almost always be less profita ble.” He said large wheat producing states further west are profitable in wheat production because soil and weather conditions make it difficult to produce any other crop. “Ohio, however, has very good soils that are favorable for growing other more profitable crops and growers can just get better yields with corn or soy beans over a one-year time span.” Wheat production in Ohio has Drought Task Force, statewide streamflow forecasts include ex tremely below average (25 per cent to 50 percent of normal) for the majority of northern and cen tral Colorado river basins, and exceptionally below average (0 percent to 25 percent of normal) for the remainder of central Col orado and most of southern Colo rado. The lowest streamflow fore casts are in the San Juan River Basin with projected inflow into Navajo Reservoir at 9 percent of average. Forecasts along the Do lores, Mancos, Rio Grande and lower Arkansas tributaries re main only in the teens for per centage forecast. The state’s best outlook is in the trioutaries of the upper Colorado River and the northern tributaries of the South Platte River where forecasts call for volumes of 40 percent to 47 percent of average. According to the NOAA Cli mate Prediction Center’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook report updated June 13, dry weather Farm income losses alone were estimated at $lBO million. Northwest Ohio is home to the highest wheat producing counties in the state. “That’s where we grow most of our wheat and when we have a risk up there of head scab, it has a bigger impact on our total production,” said Lipps. The crop throughout the northern regions of Ohio is now in flower. Approximately 10 days after all counties have wheat in flower, researchers are expected to have the forecasting models been in a steady decline since 1996. Where five to six years ago growers were harvesting a mil lion to 1.2 million acres, growers are only expected to harvest 825,000 acres in 2002. That num ber is an eight percent drop com pared to last year’s harvest and a five percent decline from this year’s 870,000-acre seeding esti mate. “We lost some of those acres over winter due to disease prob lems and wet conditions in north west Ohio,” said Pat Lipps, an Ohio State Extension plant pa thologist with the Ohio Agricul tural Research and Development Center in Wooster, Ohio. “Not all of those acres were replanted, so we will see a drop between harvested acres and planted acres.” Lipps also maintains that low wheat prices compared to other commodities, as well as a strong price support system for soy beans, is behind the significant drop in wheat acreage. “Those are probably the two most important factors. There is also a third factor involved what I’d call a production-type factor in that growers are moving to ward reduced tillage and no-till systems and they have a very dif ficult time managing com plant ed into wheat straw,” said Lipps. He said that the straw acts as an insulator on the soil surface, holding in moisture longer into the spring, causing delayed planting and stand establishment problems with com, as well as in creased disease pressure. “It makes it easier production wise to remove wheat out of the Lancaster Farming, Saturday, July 13, 2002-C5 pushed fire indices into the very high to extreme range throughout Colorado. NOAA reports that all of Colorado is in a drought. “The most dramatic and visi ble evidence of drought for for ested areas was realized and put on national and international dis play,” said Nolan Doesken, re search associate at the Colorado Climate Center. “The rapid spread of the fires in recent weeks was indeed indicative of the widespread drought condi tions that we face.” The Colorado Climate Center, housed in Colorado State Univer sity’s Department of Atmospher ic Science, provides information and expertise on weather and cli mate patterns for the state of Colorado. Pielke and Doesken issue mid-month Colorado drought advisories throughout the spring and summer in con junction with the center’s new Web site at http:// ccc.atmos.colostate.edu that pro vides access to current drought, weather and other climate data. for the entire state completed. Ohio ranks seventh overall among all winter wheat-produc ing states in the United States and produces some of the highest quality soft red winter wheat sought after by millers and bakers. For more information on the head scab forecasting system, log on to http:// www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/ ohiofieldcropdisease/wheat/ Scab%2ofore casting%2owebpageo2.htm. rotation program,” said Lipps. “Wheat, however, is an excellent rotation crop and a lot of farmers probably would like to move back to that rotational system if there was more of an economic benefit for them.” The change in government loan rates in the 2002 Farm Bill may aid in that decision Roberts said the price increase for wheat and subsequent price decrease for com and soybeans may have some effect on wheat acreage, but how much, if any, remains to be seen. “I think that it will have a pos itive influence on wheat acres, es pecially when we are running into some problems with the number of acres of continuous soybeans increasing in the state,” said Lipps. “Soil-borne diseases that follow continuous soybeans could be very critical in our state, so to have wheat in that rotation with com provides even more of a period of time for those organ isms to be managed.” Overall wheat production in the United States is down 1.3 bil lion bushels, or four percent, compared to last year, according to the USDA report, the lowest production since 1978. Yield is forecasted at 43.1 bushels per acre, the lowest harvested acre age since 1917. If Ohio’s wheat crop stays true to the numbers, it would account for four percent of the total U.S. soft red winter wheat. Ohio ranks seventh overall among all winter wheat-producing states and pro duces some of the highest quality soft red winter wheat sought after by millers and bakers.
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