GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Wednesday. February 20, 2002 Corn H.ifl h» '• _ jp2M?s2o6 1/2 207 3/4 205 3/4 206 3/4 | 207 [206 3/4 214f214 3/4(212 3/4 213 3/4 | 214 213 3/4 [6'jSjjp 2201221 1/4 219 1/4 220 1/2 220 220 1/41 02Sep 226 3/4i227 1/2 226(226 1/4 (226 1/2 (226 l/2( (02Pjip 235|235 3/4 234 234 3/4 (234 1/2 (234 3/4( [o3Mar"f 243i243 1/2 242 1/4 242 1/2 H 243 (242 3/41 ;03May 247 1/2 248 247 1/2 247 3/4 [ |247 3/4( 033ul (250 1/2 251 1/4] 250 250 3/4 ( 1250 3/4( 03Dec 249 1/2 249 3/4(248 3/4j 249 1249 1/2 249 1/4[ '043ul ! ( ( 257 n( * r ~ 04Dec 254 254 1/4 254, _____ 254 [ Month Opening [High ,f Low , - j.^ > fc^%Closip i g» ! j Soybeans Month Opening High Low 02Mar 444 1/2 445 440 1/2 02May 449 1/2 449 1/2 444 7 02Jul 453 1/4 453 1/4 448 3/4 t F 02Aug 453 453 1/2 450 453 02Sep \52 450 1/2 454 1/ , l( 02NOV 459 54 1/4 460 " 1/2 459 3 03Jan '4 465 l/ 465 1 ' bi 466 1,. ' 465 03Mar 470 470| - r ~ | 03May 474 474 i 453 454 1/4 450 1/2 454 1/4 454 1/4 460 454 1/4 460 458 1/2 459 1/4 +l2 464 465 1/2|461 1/2(465 1/2 bi 466 1/2 a 465 1/2' Unch! 4701 4701 470 f 470 Unch| 4741 474 I 474 1 lo3Jul_r ' i I 476 rif |o3Nov! | I 478 n| ! Month [opening [Low „ Closing^ Soybean Meal iMonth Opening [High l Low 1 02Mar 150.8 152.5 149.8 152.2 151.8 I 02May 149.8 151.0 148.5 150.8 150.7 |023ul 149.6 150.7 148.7 150.5 150.7 ] 02 Aug 149.7,150.5 148.8 150.2, 150.1 j 02Sep 149.5 150.0,148.3 1 150.0 j { 02Qct t 148.71149.0 ! 147.7 f 149.0 ! [ 'o2Dec ! 149.6'150.01148.2 149.8 b[150.0 aj 03Jan | 150.2 150.2 149.0 149.7 [ 149.9"[ ;03Mar j I ,149.5 b[150.5 aj . |o3May| [ 149.0 bflSCKOap j033ul j 149.0 b|l49's a 1 03Qct | 03Dec | 152.0 b[ . _____ Jls2.o_b|: [Month [opening [High Low [ Clos Weekly Dairy Market Outlook Ken Bailey Penn State Feb. 11,2002 Senate Passes Farm Bill With Dairy Title • Uses countercyclical pay- ments. • Extends price supports. • Extends DEIP. • New Johne’s program The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), a trade group that represents dairy co operatives, announced the U.S. Senate passed a Farm Bill re cently (www.nmpf.org). The bill contains a dairy title that is very different from the House ver sion. The actual language of the Senate bill, which would reflect all of the various amendments, is not yet available. According to . NMPE, the dairy title includes:. Closing' 443 1/2 444 1/4 447 1/2 448 1/2 448 452 453 452 1/2 453 154.0 a; 154.0 a | ing • Extending the dairy price support program at the current $9.90/CWT. level. • Authorizing a new national Johne’s Disease control pro gram • Extending the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). • Increasing Market Access Program (MAP) funds. • Fixing the statutory man datory inventory and price re porting language by the USDA. • Requiring dairy importers to pay into the National Dairy Board tor promotion and re search projects. Ihe bill is unique in that it contains a countercyclical pro gram that would provide direct payments to dairy producers whenever the price of milk falls below a certain level. The pay ments, made on a hun dredweight basis, are capped on ‘ !*a**a'4*4a*** liHilgM 257 { +lO 254 [settle Net Chg 444 476 478 SSS3H 1 152.01 +6 150.7 f +7 150.6 +5 150.1 +4 150.01 + 5 149.0] + 31 149.91 + 2 149.8 + 3' 150.0 j +Bl 149.5! Unchj + 2 149.2 Unch 153.0 |153.0[ Unch SettleNetChg the first 8 million pounds of milk a farm produces in a single year. How many cows does 8 mil lion pounds represent? That’s equivalent to a farm with 400 cows producing 20,000 pounds of milk per cow per year. Farms that ship more than 8 million pounds of milk a year would receive the same payment as the 400-cow farm. According to NMPF, there are actually two countercyclical payment programs, depending on where a producer lives. One program is for producers located in the 12 northeast states ot Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Vir ginia. This program provides a federal payment each month equal to 45 percent of the posi tive difference between $16.94 and the Boston Class I price. Thus the federal order Class 1 Lean Hogs Date 02/19/02 0 523652365236 02/20/02 Apr 02 5972 601559606007 02/20/02 May 02 6645 6665 6625 6660 02/20/02 Jun 02 6655 667566356665 02/20/02 02/20/02 02/20/02 02/20/02 02/20/02 Unch Unch + 2 Unch Composite Volume Openjnt 02/19/02 4764 30593 Unch Unch | Unch Live Cattle Unch Date I +2 |Ne¥chg 02/19/02 *CASH ! ' 0 720072007200 unch 02/20/02 Feb 02 7320 735272927347 +35 02/20/02 02/20/02 02/20/02 02/20/02 02/20/02 02/20/02 -10 -6 Unch + 2 Composite Volume Open_lnt 02/19/02 17363 91651 Pork Bellies -4 Date Unch + 10 02/19/02 *CASH* 0 688868886888 unch 02/20/02 Feb 02 7690 7845 7675 7830 +l3O 02/20/02 Mar 02 7680 786076357752 +67 02/20/02 May 02 7875 806578507945 +5B 02/20/02 Jul 02 7972 810079727980 +55 02/20/02 Aug 02 7700 770077007700 unch 02/20/02 Feb 03 6800 685068006850 02/20/02 Mar 03 6800 685068006850 mm. Composite Volume Open_lnt 02/19/02 1601 2720 Oats 216 1/2 230 iH‘’i 1/4 206 1/2 on *r iQ*pec 03MaT Qflt^iOpenirig Open High Low Last Chge '' rt ' ious Prions Volume Open_lnt 0 0 3243 18241 262 2301 770 4552 280 1766 117 897 58 933 29 540 3 35 Jul 02 6325 634063006340 Aug 02 6050 608060506080 Oct 02 5170 519051555190 Dec 02 4955 495549454945 Feb 03 5087 508750875087 Open High Low LaslChge '' rc ' ious Previous 6 Volume Open_lnt Apr 02 7527 756775077565 Jun 02 7037 708270277080 Aug 02 7025 705770107055 Oct 02 7205 721771777215 Dec 02 7240 725272307245 Feb 03 7337 735073107350 Open High Low Last Chge l> > rC ' iouS ' >rcvi »" s * Volume Open_lnt 0 0 16 134 1,219 . 1252 363 1109 3 199 0 26 0 0 0 0 176] 146 146 1 1451 145 High price which rises and falls with market forces is unaf fected by this new program. For example, suppose the Class I price of milk in Boston in a given month is $15.94 per CWT. The program payment would be equal to $0.45 (($16.94 - $15.94) X 0.45). No program payments are made if the monthly Class I price for milk in Boston exceeds $16.94 per CWT. Producers under this pro gram face the same annual pro duction caps outlined above (8 million pounds per farm per year). The program also has a budget ceiling of $5OO million over a 4-year period. The other program is for the rest of the U.S. It provides coun tercyclical payments to produc ers whenever the all-milk price in any given quarter falls below a rolling 5-year average price. The payment rate is equal to 40 percent of the amount by which -66 +4O +2O +lO +2B + 13 +5 -7 -13 i 216 225 1/4 [225 2251 JHB6I 202 195 168 174 145 145 145 144 146 b mm l LOW the average price of milk in a given quarter falls below the av erage price of milk for the same quarter during the previous 5 years. So, if the all-milk price in the current quarter is $l3 per hundredweight (CWT) and the 5-year average all-milk price for the same quarter was $l5 per CWT, the payment rate would be $O.BO per CWT (($l5 - $l3) ★ 0.4). The Senate version, since it is so different than the House ver sion, is scheduled to go to con ference where the differences will be worked out. Thus at this stage, it is unclear how the final bill will turn out. An economic analysis of this dairy title (previously called the “Daschle Compromise) is avail able on my Website, http:// dairyoutlook.aers.psu.edu/ reports/SenateDairyßill.pdf. V-WAV/*W*V.V*VV.V.V , J I 3532 8668 3505 797 642 160 58 4125 44266 20708 12920 6661 2256 715 202 +6oj + 501 174 +4 145 + 10 145 Unch 146
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