Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 26.2002 Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, January 24,2002 Corn |M(onth [ |Opening 208 1/4 02Mar 215 1/2 02May 222 1/4 |°23uTi 02Sep! 228 1/2 |o2Dec T 236 !03Mar! 244 1/4 IOSMay 248 1/2 03JUI 252 03Dec 250 1/2 04Jul 04Dec Month Opening Soybeans Month Opening 02Mar 434 1/2 02May 440 442 1/4 437 023111 444 446 3/4 442 |o2Aug 443 3/4 02Sep 445 448 450 1/2 456 i 02Nov 453 03Jan 03Mar 461 m 461 n| |464 l/2\ +2O 03Jul , |468 1/2nr [468 +2o 1 03 NOV i 469 469 j 469 j 469 j 469 -14 [Month Opening [High jLow .[ ' Closing ' <v[se^tU^| Soybean Meal 03May Month Opening [High {Low | C|psijjfg [Net Chg 150.9 02Mar 147.4 OZMay 147.3 OZJuI 147.3 OZAug 148.5 147.0 148.5 146.8 145.6 146.5 b 1147.0 a [146.7 [” 148.2 146.3 148.ij 148.2 [148.1[ 148.0 148.0 147.0 147.5 I {147.5| 147.0 OZSep OZOct 1 145.8 146.5 OZDec 03Jan 148.8 03Mar 149.8 03May 03Jul Month Opening High Low Weekly Dairy Market Outlook Ken Bailey Penn State January 18,2002 Milk Production Growing • December milk grows 1 percent. • Butter stocks end year up 118 percent. • Cheese stocks down 7 per cent. .• Forecast for 2002. The USDA Milk Production and Cold Storage reports were released this week. Let’s first review the production numbers. December milk production for 20 major states was 12 billion pounds, up 1 percent relative to a year ago. Both production per cow and cow numbers increased from November levels. Produc tion per cow averaged 1,547 pounds, up 28 pounds over a year ago. This is the third straight month that production per cow increased. Cow numbers were 7.74 mil lion. in. P^ejnb^.lMOi), GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, &MILKBFP FUTURES MARKETS :Low _J. ; Closing 210 1/4 208 1/4 209 1/2 ]209 3/4 [209 1/2| 217 1/4 215 1/2j 216 1/2 216 3/4 [216 1/2| 222 [ 223 [223 1/4 [ 223 +lO 1/4j 228 1/2 | 229 [228 3/4( High 223 1/2 229 1/41228 236 [ 236 3/4 [ 1/4! 244 3/4 1 1/ 21 249 1/4 i 2521 252 1/2 | 1/2 251 1/2 I 255 1/2 n! 253 n ! 237 1/2 245 1/4 244 249 1/41248 252 1/2 251 1/2 250 {Low I [High High Low 433' 436 1/2 438 3/4 441 1/2 442 1/4 1/4 445 3/4 446 3/4 1 1/41 446 1/2 446 442 447 442 4461 449 1/2 ,450 1/2 450 j 453; 455 ! 456 455 1/2| 153.0 150.0 152.5 ' 153.0 1 152.71 +lB 149.5 149.3 ,149.4 149.5 149.3 1149.41 148.8 | 149.0 f148.9r 149.5 147.2 149.5 147.2 149.0 147.3 149.0 148.2 148.0 bi 148.2 a 148.2 149.8 149.4 149.0 b 149.4 a 149.4 149.0J)|149.4 a 149.2 head more than November 2001. This was the second month in a row that cow numbers grew. Despite common wisdom, the nation’s dairy herd is expanding very slowly despite high replace ment costs. And production per cow appears to be improving modestly. This makes the fore cast of a 1-2 percent growth rate for the U.S. milk supply in 2002 plausible. USDA is forecasting a milk production growth rate of 2.4 percent. This appears on the high side. USDA’s Cold Storage report indicates butter stocks ended the year well above year-ago levels, but cheese ended with lower stock levels. Butter stocks on Dec. 31, 2001 were 52.6 million pounds, up 118 percent relative to a year ago. Total stocks of cheese were 655.7 million, down 7 percent relative to a year ago. The Chicago Mercantile Ex change is still predicting rela tively strong milk prices for 2002. The market is assuming the milk supply will be much «*•*••**«*•»*•••••*•*-•* t Closing i Closing 447 i 1 148.5 j I Settle Closing [settle S | / Net Chg I ‘'”+e| 236 3/41 244 3/4| 249 1/4) 252 1/2 { 237 251 1/21 255 1/2| 2531 Net chg 1 Settle . Settle Net Chg 1437 1/41 +36 I' 438 1 441 3/4 446 1/4; i 4461 1 4471 Bifrii + 21 + 23 + 16 + 201 + 17 + 17 i + 10 + 14 + 14 1 I +l2; [Net Chg tighter than what is predicted by USDA. That said, I am gener ally assuming the futures market prices are a bit too high. Oh, don’t worry I have been known to be wrong before. My estimates are in the table in cluded here. The biggest difference be tween my forecasts and the Chi cago Mercantile Exchange futures markets is that my fore casts for cheese prices are weaker during the spring months. Also, I am assuming that USD A will lower the CCC purchase price for nonfat dry milk from $0.90 per pound to $O.BO per pound. Therefore 1 am forecasting the domestic price of nonfat dry milk will fall to $0.85 per pound. My estimate of the Class IV price will therefore be lower than the Class IV futures estimate. In comparing my 2002 num bers to USDA’s, my estimate of a $12.25 per CWT average for Class 111 is above USDA’s range of $11.25-$12.05. However, my estimate of a Class IV price av erage of $11.83 is within USDA’s range of $11.55-$12.45 De/£WTw.._ Lean Hogs Date 01/24/02 Feb 02 5540 5645 5535 5642 +ll5 01/24/02 Apr 02 5990 6115 59806097 +lO7 01/24/02 May 02 6510 65956497 6587 +77 01/24/02 Jim 02 6570 670065606692 +l2O 01/24/02 Jul 02 6210 630062106292 +67 01/24/02 Aug 02 6035 610060106095 +55 01/24/02 Oct 02 5227 52705227 5265 +5O 01/24/02 Dec 02 5060 508050605065 +l5 01/24/02 Feb 03 5260 526052505260 unch +6 + 10 Composite Volume Open_lnt 01/23/02 8035 29171 + 2 + 4 , + 2, +4i Live Cattle Date +el 01/24/02 Feb 02 7142 71907125 7175 01/24/02 Apr 02 7405 74707395 7452 01/24/02 Jun 02 7007 7055 70007045 01/24/02 Aug 02 7005 704770007045 0 -10' -lOi 1/24/02 Oct 02 7195 72457195 7232 01/24/02 Dec 02 7235 727072257240 01/24/02 Feb 03 7347 735073057340 + 34 +34 1 +4O! + 34, +2e! Composite Volume Open_lnt 01/23/02 15036 93764 Pork Bellies Date +2O! 01/24/02 Feb 02 7440 763073457610 01/24/02 Mar 02 7450 7635 73707617 01/24/02 May 02 7595 7735 75207720 01/24/02 Jul 02 7650 780076507800 01/24/02 Aug 02 7650 766075857660 +2O Composite Volume Open_lnt 01/23/02 1025 2439 Oats NwwSIHSL_ , 1981 1991195 1/2 198 1/2 | 3/41 184| 180 183 1/2 | 1/2 163 1/2j 161 162 3/4 [ 144 1/4 b I 143 sm 143 144 1/4 l/2j 143 §oo3Bs mi SBBST" BSBBM For more information on dairy markets, see my website at http //dairyoutlook.aers.psu edu/ Forecail ot Blend Prices for Northeast Federal Order I Month 2001 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual avg 2002 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual avg Note Updated Ken Bailey Pqnn State University 1/18/02 „ u- u i ¥ * Previous Previous Open H.gh Lo» Last Chge Vo|ume ope „ ~ u- u i i Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume open 6614 31309 5541 31965 1501 15328 1090 10513 162 3497 107 1084 21 67 Open High Low Last Chge , ' re ' iOUS Previous 6 Volume Open_lnt 608 1411 304 586 78 345 35 84 0 13 vs'* ~ ' >■ vt 1 -■» \V * . ' ! '*)- ] i «i *' . ’ - 1 143 141 1/2 142 3/4 b MggigcKi Boston Boston Order 1 Lancaster Class IV Class 111 Class M Class I PPD Blend Blend $/cwt Vcwt $/cwl $/cwt Vcwt $/cwt S/cwl +BB +B7 +65 +33 -30 IiiPIYWChV 1198 1/2! +2O 1183 1/21 j 162 3/41 1 1441/4 r | _ 143 f 142 3/4 7403 14122 1660 3197 1118 767 573 318 13 + 20 + 10 + 26 + 14 Unch
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers