Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 12,2002 GRAIN. CATTLE. HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids; Thursday, January 10, 2002 Corn (JOPPI r~ I (201 1/2 nf _ (201 1/2; -10 02Mar 209 209 1/4 207 3/4 208 1/2 | 209 208 3/4) -12 i 02 May 216 216 1/4[214 3/4f 215 1/2 (215 3/4 (215 3/4 f -12 ! 02Jul 222 1/2 223(221 l/2[ 222(222 1/2 1222 174 -141 02Sep 228 1/4 229 227 3/4( 228 1/4 [ (228 1/4| -10| 02PCC ! 237 237 1/2(236 1/4! 237 (236 3/4 j 237 -IQi 03Mar 245 1/4 245 1/2 244 1/2 245 j | 245 1 -10| 03Mav _ t ( [ 249_n| I 249 [ ' -101 Q3JUI 252 I/41 253 l 252| 252 3/4 ] [252 3/4f -4| gapec ; 252(252 1/4(251 1/2(2521/4 ( ” 2521/4 -4! Q43ul T | 257 nf 'J 257 -4 04Dec | 1 [256 1/2 n| |256 1/2 -4 Month (Opening High Lbw t v : ,-( Soybeans Month |Opening(High ' (Low r o23an ( 438' 438 430 l/2[ 433 1/2 432 3/4 [433 1/4 -66| 02Mar, 437 437 430 1/2[ 432 3/4 432(432 1/2 -70 02May 441, 441434 3/4) 437 436 (436 l/2[ -72 02Jul (445 1/2 445 1/2 439 l/2f 441 1/4 (440 1/2 | 441 -82 02Aug | 4461 446(440 1/2| 441 440 1/2 [440 3/4[ 02Sep i 446 446[440 1/2| 441 | ( 441 -64 02NOV 449 1/2 449 1/2! 444 445 | 444 (444 1/2 -70 io33an 1 j 1 452 nP ( 452 -56 j 03Mar 03Jul 03Nov MonthOpeningHigh Lovy . Soybean Meal Month {Opening [High Low | { Closing ..A ■ is^tyefNp#lhg:i 02Jan 152.8 153.2 151.5 153.0 153.2 153.1 -2 02Mar 147.8 147.9 146.4 147. 02May 02Jul 144.8 144.8 143.5 143. 145.3 145.5 144.0 144. 02Aug 145.0 145.5 144.2 144. 02Sep 145.2 145.4 144.3 144. OZOct 145.5 145.5 144.1 144.1 02Dec 146.3 146.3 145.2 145.6 b 145.7 a 033 an 146.5 146.5 145.6 145.5 b 145.6 a 03Mar 148.0 148.0 147.0 147.0 b 147.5 a 03May 147.0 147.0 147.0 147.0 b 147.5 a. 03Jul 150.0 150.0 148.0 148.0 b 148.5 a 03 Dec Month {opening High Low Weekly Dairy Market Outlook Ken Bailey Penn State Jan. 4,2002 Second Year Of Federal Order Reform Prices Complete • December numbers an nounced. • 2001 average Class 111 was $13.10/CWT. • 2001 average Class IV was $13.76/CWT. • Outlook for 2002, The final numbers for 2001 are in. USDA just released the federal order class prices for De cember. This wraps up year 2 of the new pricing formulas under federal order reform. 2001 rep resents a major change from 2000. First, let’s review the Decem ber 2001 numbers. i "h 4571 467 1466 1/2 nj [466 l/2[ -64 457 n| 467 n[~ 4 147.1 8 144.0 2 > 144.3 5 144.7 Closing The Class I mover was al ready announced at $11.98 per CWT. That represents a drop of $3.78 per CWT from November 2001. The December Class 111 price was $ll.BO per CWT, up $0.49 per CWT from the month before. This was because of a $0.044/pound increase in cheese prices in December. The Class IV price for De cember was $11.79 per CWT. This was a decline of $O.lB per CWT from the month before be cause of slight declines in both butter and nonfat dry milk prices. The December Class II price was $12.61 per CWT, down $0.17 from the month before because of the lower butter and nonfat dry milk prices. So how did 2001 federal order prices compare to 2000? With out a doubt, 2001 prices were much better. The Class 111 price 147.3 -12 143.9 j -16 144.3! -20 -19 144.3 144.6 -17 144.1 -14 145.7 -18 145.6 -14 147.3, -12 147.0, -17, -9 148.31 | Unch Settle Net CKg averaged $13.10 per CWT in 2001 compared to $9.74 per CWT in 2000. This was because of higher cheese prices. The 2001 NASS cheese price aver aged $1.43 per pound in 2001 compared to $1.13 per pound in 2000. The Class IV price aver aged $13.76 per CWT in 2001 compared to $11.83 in 2000. The Class IV price was much higher in 2001 because of a strong butter price. The NASS survey butter price averaged $1.63 per pound in 2001 compared to $1.14 per pound in 2000. On the negative side, prices for nonfat dry milk fell 3 cents per pound from the year before to $0.98 in 2001. This was due in large part to a reduction in the support price for nonfat dry milk from $1 per pound in 2000 to $0.90 per pound in the spring of 2001. As a result, the Class IV price was only $0.65 per CWT higher than the Class 111 price in 2001, com pared to a difference of $2.09 in Lean Hogs Date 01/10/02 01/10/02 01/10/02 01/10/02 01/10/02 01/10/02 01/10/02 01/10/02 01/10/02 Composite Volume Open_lnt 01/09/02 6681 26756 Live Cattle Date 01/10/02 Feb 02 7092 709570357037 01/10/02 Apr 02 7415 7425 7367 7382 01/10/02 Jun 02 7065 707270207025 01/10/02 Aug 02 7057 707070207037 01/10/02 Oct 02 7240 724072007220 01/10/02 Dec 02 7250 726072207252 01/10/02 Feb 03 7250 727072507270 Composite Volume Open_lnt 01/09/02 17424 93907 Pork Bellies Date -60 -50 01/10/02 Feb 02 7410 761073857520 +4O 01/10/02 Mar 02 7480 765074507550 +33 01/10/02 May 02 7650 774076007650 -20 01/10/02 Jul 02 760jb 775076007600' -115 01/10/02 Aug 02 7525 75257525 7525 Composite Volume Openjnt 01/09/02 1319 2868 Oats Month'Opening High [Low 02Mar 193 1/2 196 1/2 193 1/2 02May 180 1/4 181 3/4 180 181 3/4 181 3/4 02Jul_ 161 1/2 164 1/4 161 1/2 164 1/4 b 164 1/4 !Q2Se'p,j , 138 b! " 138 |o2jsefjl4l 1/4 141 1/2|141 1/4 1411/2, jl4l 1/2, A ... , . . Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge ... „ Volume Openjnt 4009 12787 2390 7854 45 1473 152 2328 39 971 33 569 12 507 0 266 0 1 Feb 02 5540 5615 55305590 +143 Apr 02 5980 6085 5980 6080 +145 May 02 6430 6555 64306540 +ll5 Jun 02 6480 657764806577 +llO Jul 02 6197 628061906280 +lO5 Aug 02 5975 6085 5975 6082 +ll2 Oct 02 5240 5265 52405252 +45 Dec 02 5060 5075 50605065 +l3 Feb 03 5290 529052905290 -2 ~ ii* i. t T * Previous Previous Open High L<m Last Chge Volume ope „ 42318 4465 24781 1871 14580 ,918 , 87(?8 195 2551 46 903 1 6 ir- . i , , Previous Previous Open H.gh Low Last Chge Vo|ume open 1140 2150, 104 383 68 273 2000, So what does 2002 outlook hold for the U.S. dairy industry? Well, it depends on many fac tors. Let’s start with the milk supply. We are seeing a gradual recovery in milk output per cow and cow numbers. Some esti mates call for a 2.7 percent growth in the milk supply in 2002 over the year before. Other estimates, however, are as low as a 1 percent growth. The lower the growth rate, the higher milk prices will be. The other factor is demand for dairy products. That de pends in part on the health of the U.S. economy. It looks like the overall economy will con tinue to be a drain on growth in demand for dairy products. As of Jan. 3, the futures market at the Chicago Mercan tile Exchange is expecting stronger growth in milk prices the second half of 2002. The Class 111 futures are expected to grow from $11.45 per CWT in -25 Closing Settle 196 195 3/4 195 3/4 January to $12.41 by June 2002. Then it will grow from $13.15 per CWT in July to $13.35 by September 2002. The 2002 annual average for the Class 111 price is $12.31 per CWT, about $0.79 per CWT below the 2001 average. The Class IV futures are ex pected to grow from $12.10 per CWT in January to $12.55 by June 2002. It will then remain at about $12.85 through November 2002. The 2002 average Class IV price is about $12.52, or $1.24 per CWT below the 2001 aver age. The reduction in tjhe 2002 estimate for the Class IV price is probably because of a lower out look for butter prices, and ex pectations for another reduction in the support price for nonfat dry milk. The Senate version of the dairy title to the Farm Bill is still being debated. For information and analysis of the Daschle Sub stitute, see my Website at http:// dairyoutlook.aers.psu.edu/ 49. 13 Net Chg Unch + 2 + 16 -24
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