Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, August 18,2001 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG. &MILKBFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, August 16,2001 Corn 'CTfe[227 3/4 Opfthiljfl 220 3/4 233| 233 [228 1/4 234 l/2t235 1/2 Soybean Meal Weekly Dairy Market Outlook' Ken Bailey Penn State Aug. 10,2001 Heat Wave Pressures Milk Prices • Temperatures for the nation in 90s and 100 s. • Heat and humidity are af fecting milk output. • Cheese and butter prices firmer. • Class 111 futures way up\ Dairy producers looking for a sign to lock in fall Class 111 fu tures prices found a clear one today. September through De cember 2001 futures shot up $0.65-$0.75 per CWT today. September Class 111 futures rose to $15.75 per CWT, and Decem ber Class 111 futures rose to $13.40 per CWT. Class IV prices are weaker, ranging from $l5 in August to $13.25 by December. The market may be reacting to a heat wave that has raised .High 216 1/4 220 3/4 225 227 3/4 233 1/2 238 1/2 243 252 265 265 temperatures from coast to coast up into the 90s-100s. Sustained temperatures at these levels cou pled with high humidity results in less feed consumption and lower milk output. It could also reduce milk output the rest of the year if cows are stressed enough. For those looking to lock in milk prices, these are very good prices. There is still concern in the market that consumption may be soft this year because of a weaker national economy. While fuel prices are now lower and inflation under control, the economy is barely growing and many companies are laying people off. And besides, the heat wave is showing signs of subsid ing. USD A reports that week-to week milk production declines of 10-percent are common. And, fat and protein tests are lower than normal. This has resulted in increased demand for con densed skim and nonfat dry milk to improve cheese vat 216 3/4 217 1/4 225 229 1/4 229 3/4 233 1/2 239 1/2 240 1/4 243 3/4 1244 1/2 248 3/4 248 248 253 1/4 | 253’ 253 268 265 217 -24 -26 225 -22 229 1/2 -20 233 1/2 240 -16 -10 244 1/4 -14 248 1/2 I 248 Unch + 2 Oats yields. Block cheese prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose from $1.67 per pound Aug. 6-9 to $1.72 by Friday, Aug. 10. Barrel cheese prices weakened from $1.6275 per pound Monday, Aug. 6 to $1.5975 Aug. 8-9, and then rallied to $1.65 Friday, Aug. 10. There was only one carload of cheese that traded the entire week. Barrel and block prices rose Friday on bids only. Grade AA butter prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose from $2 per pound on Monday to $2.01 per pound on Wednesday and Friday. Twenty-five carloads of butter traded hands this week. USD A reports that cream availability is low because of the heat wave gripping most of the country. Demand for butter, however, must be limited due to high retail butter prices. Inventories of butter are reported to be even with a year ago. I had the opportunity to visit the Chicago Mercantile Ex change this week. Mike Downes, a commodity broker with Downes-O’Neill (http:// Lean Hogs Daily Prices As of Date Oct 01 Dec 01 Feb 02 Apr 02 May 02 Jun 02 Jul 02 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 Aug 02 0 6000 6000 6000 Composite Volume Openjnt 08/15/01 3671 50602 Live Cattle Daily Prices As of Date 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 Aug 01 7200 7242 7195 7222 Oct 01 7455 7502 7455 7470 Dec 01 7547 7570 7542 7557 Feb 02 7682 7697 7675 7677 Apr 02 7817 7825 7800 7805 Jun 02 7425 7445 7425 7430 Aug 02 7470 7470 7465 7470 Composite Volume Openjnt 08/15/01 17042 102210 Pork Bellies Daily Prices As ofThursday, 16 August Date Open High Low Last Chge PreV ' _ Pr T ev ’ r 6 6 Volume Openjnt 367 1059 306 1620 0 50 0 L 9 0 1 0 0 Aug 01 9760 9770 9532 9705 -75 Feb 02 7850 7875 7700 7735 -172 Mar 02 7810 7810 7610 7610 -150 May 02 0 7900 7900 7900 -300 Jul 02 0 1900 7900 7900 -300 Aug 02 0 7910 7910 7910 unch 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 08/16/01 Composite Volume Openjnt 08/15/01 673 2750 www.dairy.nu/), took me on a personal tour of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Mike has been in the commodity futures business a number of years and introduced me to the floor trad ers, locals, and exchange staff. We watched Class 111 futures trade, as well as cash markets for butter and cheese. It was a fascinating process. I would highly recommend anyone with an interest in the dairy markets to visit the exchange the next time they are in Chicago. Finally, this forecaster, like others in the dairy business, is both humbled and amazed at how high Class 111 cash and fu tures prices have climbed this year. This is especially interest ing after such a poor showing most of last year. Like more forecasters, you hate to be off by $3 per CWT! It shows how hard it is to forecast milk prices these days. I’m not the only economist having trouble with forecasting, it turns out. I recently read an article in Investor’s Business Daily with the following head line, “Is It A Recession? The ‘Experts’ Won’t Know Until - Thursday, 16 August Open High Low Last Chge 2380 1001 143 51 6140 6170 6077 6130 5655 5670 5590 5632 5710 5720 5655 5680 5702 5715 5692 5697 0 6202 6202 6202 0 6495 6495 6495 0 6267 6255 6255 Thursday, 16 August Open High Low Last Chge v rev ‘ Prev. r 6 6 Volume Openjnt 4052 5113 8298 46242 3316 23185 813 15881 321 6690 217 5050 24 49 Prev. Openjnt 29800 10821 3763 1034 285 275 89 31 +35 unch + 10 unch -15 -5 unch We’re Out From Under It.” (pg. A2O, Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2001). There are a lot more economists forecasting the health of the U.S. economy than there are forecasting dairy. It seems that not one of them can tell us whether or not we are experienc ing a recession. That’s enough to give “Experts” (that is, econo mists) a bad name! Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA record sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week's average costs of various ingred ients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Pennsylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Corn, No.2y 2.28 bu., 4.08 cwt. Wheat, N 0,2 2.45 bu., 4.10 cwt. Barley, N 0.3 —1.36 bu., 2.92 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 —1.36 bu., 4.25 cwt. Soybeans, No.l 4.58 bu., 7.65 cwt. Ear Corn—6l.7B ton, 3.09 cwt. Alfalfa Hay 110.00 ton, 5.5 cwt. Mixed Hay —112.50 ton, 5.63 cwt. Timothy Hay —101.25 ton, 5.06 cwt.
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers