Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, July 21,2001 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG. &MILKBFP FUTURES MARKETS Market* Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, July 19.2001 240 1/ 243 1/2 242 1/2 246 258 262 j 258| 262 | Month [Opening High f &V&FI Soybean Meal Weekly Dairy Market Outlook Ken Bailey Penn State July 13,2001 Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Declining • Nonfat dry milk prices de cline 6 weeks. • CME Grade AA butter drops to $1.76 • Cheese market steady. Western nonfat dry milk con tinues to flow into government storage as domestic market prices weaken. In fact, prices for Western nonfat dry milk have been declining for six weeks in a row. USDA reports that the mar kets are awaiting the 2001-2002 Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) allocations. Buyers are holding back to see how low prices will fall. Demand for nonfat dry milk, however, is re- 239 242 246 1/2 241 1/2 243 1/2 245 249 portedly good. International prices are rela tively high. Last week USDA re ported that prices for nonfat dry milk in Australia/New Zealand were $0.9580 per pound. Do mestic U.S. prices for nonfat dry milk, on the other hand, are fall ing because of the reduction in the CCC purchase prices. Western nonfat dry milk this week averaged $0.9550. It ap pears that our domestic U.S. price has fallen to the world price. Despite this, USDA re ports that about 10.4 million pounds of Western nonfat dry milk entered the dairy price sup port program for the week July 9-13. The butter market also con tinues to weaken. This may be short-lived. Part of the decline may be due to surplus butter from the July 4 weekend. It may also be a result of reduced 6 3/4 216 1/4 223 1/2 28 1/2 228 31 1/2 n 238 1/2 237 3/4 242 1/2 242 246 1/2 243 1/2 248 249 258 n Pork Bellies Daily Prices As of Date 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 Composite Volume Open_lnt 07/18/01 904 2268 Oats demand because of high retail prices. USDA reports churning activity is light as most cream is going toward the production of ice cream. Thus butter may be in a better supply-demand balance in the weeks ahead. Demand for dairy products has been good so far this year. For the months January through April, commercial dis appearance relative to a year ago has been as follows: butter down 5.0 percent, American cheese up 3.8 percent, other cheese up 3.3 percent, nonfat dry milk up a whopping 42 per cent, and fluid milk products up 0.3 percent. Thus, a weaker U.S. economy with higher unemploy ment rates has not apparently put a dent in demand for dairy products. The big unknown, of course, is what the milk supply will do the rest of the year. Will milk production per cow recover? Will producers fmd first lacta tion heifers to fill up their barns? Lean Hogs Daily Prices As ofThursday, 19 July Date Aug 01 6830 6885 6775 6877 Oct 01 5910 5970 5875 5962 Dec 01 5530 5580 5495 5572 Feb 02 5680 5775 5652 5760 Apr 02 5645 5770 5645 5762 May 02 6240 6300 6240 6280 Jun 02 6475 6590 6465 6590 Jul 02 6235 6290 6235 6290 Aug 02 6097 6100 6085 6085 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 Composite Volume Openjnt 07/18/01 4916 51153 Live Cattle Daily Prices As of Date 07/19/01 Aug 01 7477 7487 7415 7442 Oct 01 7577 7582 7535 7547 Dec 01 7595 7602 7560 7575 Feb 02 7730 7730 7700 7702 Apr 02 7830 7832 7800 7830 Jun 02 7450 7450 7425 7432 Aug 02 7430 7440 7430 7440 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 07/19/01 Composite Volume Open_lnt 07/18/01 14534 117869 JulOl Aug 01 Feb 02 Mar 02 May 02 Jul 02 It is possible to see a recovery in the Northeast if forage condi tions improve. It is less likely in other parts of the U.S. (Upper Midwest and Northwest) be cause of limited forage produc tion and poor quality. Thus the recovery in milk production could be prolonged into next year despite a strong profit in centive to expand production. The market is wagering that the milk supply will have a par tial recovery by the fourth quar ter of 2001. The CME futures markets as of July 13 report that the Class 111 price is expected to decline from $15.30 per CWT in July to $12.85 by December. This is still relatively high when one considers the average Class 111 price in 2000 was just $9.74 per CWT. The Class IV futures as of July 13 were $14.75 per CWT in July and declined to $13.05 by December. Cleary the reduction in the CCC purchase price for nonfat dry milk is having a negative Prey* Open High Low Last Chge Volum g 2772 1631 323 110 12 22 16 19 - Thursday, 19 July Open High Low Last Chge 7529 3827 1934 872 170 201 Thursday, 19 July Prp.v Prev Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume Qpenjni 9150 9370 9150 9370 +3OO 8770 9000 8770 9000 +3OO 7680 7867 7680 7825 +255 7700 7805 7700 7805 +3OO 0 8060 8045 8045 +235 0 8050 8050 8050 +3OO Prev. Openjnt 19116 18261 7725 2447 713 189 144 57 Prev. Open_lnt 37717 38521 20836 11484 5208 4097 45 786 72 impact on the outlook for Class IV prices. This may be tempo rary, since nonfat dry milk is rel atively tight on the global market. Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA record sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week’s average costs of various ingred ients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Pennsylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Corn, No.2y 2.21 bu., 3.95 cWt. Wheat, N 0.2 2.34 bu., 3.90 cwl. Barley, N 0.3 —1.33 bu., 2.84 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 —1.40 bu., 4.35 cwt. Soybeans, No. 1 4.30 bu., 7.18 cwt. Ear Corn 60.15 ton, 3.01 cwt. Alfalfa Hay —122.00 ton, 6.1 cwt. Mixed Hay —108.50 ton, 5.43 cwt. Timothy Hay 98.75 ton, 4.94 cwt. 104 1851 287 12 13
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