Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, April 21,2001
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, April 19, 2001
Corn
Month High . Low
OlMay 207 1/2 208 203 1/2;
216 216 211
joj|fepl223 l/2j223 1/2
,Qi|«tti 228 1/4 228 1/4 226]
01D/q;2 3 3 3/4 233 3/4 228 3/4
!02Jan 1
02Mar 242 1/4 242 1/2 238 3/4
02May 247 1/4 247 1/4 245 1/2
023u1;
i 02SSp F
255
02Dec 257 3/4
03 DSC
Month Opfertihg High Low
Soybeans __ _ _ _ r „,_
Month Opening High | i ■ * c,^si^? v
OlMay 432 434 1/4 427 1/2,429 1/2 j 429 429 1/4 -46!
i (iillil 436 1/2 436 1/2 «9|430 1/4 1429 3/4 430 -66
[Ollll9 434 1/2 434 1/2 4261/2 428 [426 1/2 427 l/4[
426 426419J./2) 420 |419 1/2 [419 3/4[
OINOV 429 429 1/21421 l/2;422 1/2 J 421 1/2 [ 42*f
02Jan 438 438;431jL/2 432 ' 432^
02Mar 441 1/2 442 1/2(441 1/2]441 1/2 1 ,441 1/21
jolllay, 454 454 _447| 447 ! 1
fqSuT'l462 1/2 462 1/2) 4551 455 j
471 471, 465 1 465 j 465 J
Monthopening High
Soybean Meal
Month Opening High Low
OlMay 154.2 154.7 152.6
OUul
151.3 151.6 148.8
148.8 149.0 146.2
OlAug
OlSep
146.4 146.5 143.9
144.0 144.0 141.3
OlOct
01 Dec
142.0 1142.1{
142.2 ! 142.1 142.2[
144.5 144.5 143.0 143.0 b 143.1 a 143.1 1
144.5 144.5 143.5 143.0 b 143.5 aj 143.5!
144.0 144.1 141.3
143.0 143.3 142.0
023 an
02Mar
02May
145.5 145.5 143.5 143.5
023ul
Month Opening High Low i
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
April 13,2001
Investing Vs. Dairy
Marketing: Lessons To Be
Learned From Wall Street
• The biggest news in the
world of investing is whether the
market has “bottomed out.”
As many of you already know,
the stock market has taken a
steep decline beginning the last
quarter of 2000 and continuing
into this year. It first started
with high-priced technology
stocks. Then, a slowing economy
and reduced corporate earnings
resulted in a general weakening
of many stocks in the broader
market.
You may be asking yourself,
“what does this have to do with
the dairy markets?” Hold on,
I’m getting there!
One investment show I was
watching on television featured
a panel of stock market analysts
who were discussing whether or
l/4
211 1/2 [
219 1/2 219 1/4
219
226 1/2
238 3/4 {
245 1/2
250 1/2
255 250
254 1/2 nl
256 3/4 [257 1/2
258 255 3/4
262 3/4 n|
Closing iSefJleiNet
153.9 153.7 153.5 l -8;
150.0 149.8 ‘149.91
147.3 | 147.5 i147.4|
144.3 , 144.5 1144.41
141.8 141.9 ' 141.9'
142.2
jl43.sj -16
Clo6rng.|f;[settle |n tt^|
not the stock market already
bottomed out or is close to the
bottom. They noted that history
has shown that if you could
invest in stocks at the bottom of
the market, they would appreci
ate in value significantly over
the next year. But the question
debated was when will we see
the bottom of the market?
One of the “experts” sug
gested that investors will never
be able to pick the bottom. So he
suggested they “average into”
the bottom. In other words, buy
some stock this week, wait a
week or two, and then buy some
more of the same stocks. You
may not end up with the lowest
price, but you will be pretty close
to it.
I think this discussion has im
plications for the dairy industry.
For the past month I have been
recommending dairy producers
consider locking in a portion of
their milk supply over the next
5-8 months. I estimated that a
dairy producer in the Northeast
federal order today can lock in
|204 1/2 j
211 3/4!
212
'229 3/41
! 233
230j229 1/2
—r
233 n|
239
246
251
1262 3/4;
rmsgmmi
-44
-50
219 1/2
-50
:«i
-52|
226 1/2 j
-54
-52
239
-52
245 3/4;
-52
250 3/4 j
-32
254 1/21
-24
257 1/41
-2
-82
-72
-80
-74
-74
-84
4471
I
455
-90
-70
-17,
-12
-15
-17
-21
-20;
-19'
-131
at more than $2.30 per CWT
higher milk prices for the re
mainder of this year when com
pared to last year.
Do you know why everyone
didn’t rush out to their coopera
tives and lock in these prices?
Many dairy producers already
answered this for me, “cause
they are waiting for milk prices
to go up $3 or $4 per CWT
higher than last year.”
Nobody wants to lock in a
milk price only to find out the
market went higher. But dairy
producers should consider this
strategy of “averaging into the
market.”
Pick the months you are most
worried about. For me, that
would be June through Novem
ber. April is just about made,
and May will likely continue to
be strong for milk prices.
Focus on the outer months.
Then start to lock in a portion of
each month. Start with locking
in 25 percent of your milk this
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of
Date
04/19/01 JunOl 7100 7207 7062 7197
04/19/01 JulOl 6785 6870 6770 6847
Aug 01
Oct 01
Dec 01
Feb 02
Apr 02
04/19/01
04/19/01
04/19/01
04/19/01
04/19/01
Composite Volume Open_lnt
04/18/01 6560 47306
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As of
Date
04/19/01 Apr 01 7605
04/19/01 Jun 01 7205
04/19/01 Aug 01 7205
04/19/01 Oct 01 7360
04/19/01 Dec 01 7450
04/19/01 Feb 02 7537
04/19/01 Apr 02 7670
Composite Volume Open_lnt
04/18/01 14471 123906
Pork Bellies
Daily Prices As of Thursday, 19 April
Date
04/19/01
04/19/01
04/19/01
04/19/01
04/19/01
04/19/01
May 01
JulOl
Aug 01
Feb 02
Mar 02
May 02
Composite Volume Openjnt
04/18/01 920 3246
Oats
Month 'Opening I H||h Low
OlMay 110 1/2 110 1/2 108 1/2 109 3/4 I
OUul 114 1/2,114 1/2112 1/4 113 1/4 !
OlSep lie 3/41116 3/4,114 3/4 115 3/4 j
01DCC 122 1/2 1 122 3/4 120 3/4 122 f
02Mar ! 1291/2 a
Month tOpsillligK^P
week for the months of June
through November. Then wait a
week or two and lock in another
25 percent. And so forth. You
may end up locking in say 75
percent of your September milk
after 4 to 6 weeks. But your “av
erage” milk price may be higher
than if you did it all today.
To help farmers across the state to
have handy reference of commodity
input costs m their feeding operations
for DHIA record sheets or to develop
livestock feed cost data, here’s last
week’s average costs of various ingred
ients as compiled from regional reports
across the state of Pennsylvania.
- Thursday, 19 April
Open High Low Last Chge y o^^g
3647
1459
6420 6490 6392 6457
5580 5617 5555 5602
5300 5365 5300 5330
5435 5440 5430 5437
5345 5390 5345 5390
Thursday, 19 April
High Low Last
Open
7605 7530 7532
7210 7135 7147
7205 7155 7175
7375 7332 7337
7460 7417 7427
7537 7492 7495
7670 7645 7650
Open High Low Last Chge
8440 8652 8375 8615
8490 8765 8490 8737
8345 8585 8325 8580
7400 7407 7400 7400
0 7407 7407 7407
0 7930 7700 7700
Low
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
+45
+ 10
-13
+ 15
Prev.
Volume
-98 5596
-78 5429
-40 1787
-35 1073
-33 531
-47 . 32
-30 23
Prev.
Volume
517
299
23
81
+2O
+4O
+35
-5
+2
-275
I Settle
1109 3/4
113 1/4
115 3/4
i 122
i 129 1/2 Unch
Settle Netthg
However, if the market weak
ens, your average milk price
could also be lower too. This
strategy may have appeal to
those producers who (a) worry
about their milk prices, and (b)
are concerned about locking in
milk prices that are too low.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Corn, No.2y 2.29 bu., 3.94 cwt.
Wheat, No 2 2.31 bu., 3.86 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 1.57 bu., 3.37 cwt.
Oats. N 0.2 1.39 bu., 4.34 cwt.
Soybeans, No 1 4.06 bu., 6.78 cwt.
Ear Corn 59.98 ton, 3.0 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay —104.25 ton, 5.21 cwt.
Mixed Hay 98.75 ton, 4.94 cwt.
Timothy Hay 86.25 ton, 4.31 cwt.
Prev.
Open_lnt
24578
5204
661
408
317
66
5639
5114
3331
573
80
Prev.
Openjnt
14366
46875
25406
22680
10340
3193
1046
Prev.
Openjnt
1895
1032
284
25
Net Chg
-10
-14
-12 i
-12