Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 10,2001 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, &MILKBFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, February 8,2001 Corn Soybeans I * l '':'. SBBS * S7 ~ 459 452 1/2 465 1/4i457 1/4 458^1/2 i dlljl 470 471 3/4 463 1/2 463 1/2 47o] 4711462 l/2[ 463 lOlSajl 467 [_* 468461 1/2| 462 :o!F«& ' fSSS#" 4701 481|482 1/4 492j492 1/2 485 1/2|485 1/2 SSmw [o2iu( M'. 505 i 515, ipfening High \ Lowi^J « V V j *’< '*r^* !Mb^ ... . Oats Month Opening 01Marl02 3/4 OlMay 108 3/4 1 01Julll4 1/4 US OlDec 124 1/2 ;02Mar; Month By Ken Bailey Penn State University February 2, 2001 USDA Issued an Injunction -Cannot issue separate biitterfat prices 2001 puces -January annoum ed -Genet al puce tiend is higher USDA was issued an injunction on January 31, 2001 regarding the implementation of the new class formula prices contained in an interim final amendment. US. District Court Judge Royce C Lamberth enjoined USDA from implementing portions of the interim final amendments to Federal milk orders that became effective Jan.l, 2001. USDA’s plans to implement changes m federal order prices created quite a stir in the dairy industry There was little support from dairy producers and their cooperatives and from processors In short, the injunction prevents USDA from implementing their new plan to have separate butterfat prices for Class 111 and IV milk. This would have resulted in separate market prices foi cream depending on use And, it would have resulted in a significant ieduction in protein prices for dairy producers At this stage the only thing we do know is that USDA will only be able to implement a few minor changes in their pricing formulas r7 "‘* l/2p 465 465 1/2 473 475 5051 515 5021 508{ | High Low tloslng ' 102 1/4 102 1/2 I 103 3/4 1109 3/4 108 1/4! 108 3/4 1113 1/2| 114 115 118 j |ll9 1/4 |124 1/2! 125 | ' 3/4 b 1313/4 i 125 1/4 PWfiu- These include the switch from 39 to 38 percent moisture in NASS reporting of barrel prices, and minor changes in the economic formulas (so called “make allowances”) A complete analysis of the impact of the USDA's final rule on the Northeast was issued by Penn State University last week along with a comment letter to USDA (see my webwite: http //www.aers psu edu/dairyoutl ook/FedOrderData/MilkPnceMod el htm ) USDA announced January 2001 class prices under fedeial milk marketing orders. These prices were computed using the formulas in the U S District Court’s preliminary injunction order dated January 31, 2001 The formula prices are driven by dairy commodity prices Butter prices fell sharply from $1 4698 per pound in December 2000 to $1 1725 m January 2001 Cheese prices rose from $1 0898 per pound in December 2000 to $1 1180 m January 2001 Due to these changes in commodity prices, Class 111 prices rose in January and Class II and IV prices fell The Class II price at 3.5 percent butterfat fell sharply from $l3 97 per cwt in December 2000 to $l2 82 in January 2001 Likewise, Class IV prices fell from $l3 27 per cwt in 457 1/4 458 464 1/2 464 462 1/2 462 465 465 475 |485 ( i i 494 -110 502 -110 { 508 aj 508 -84 494 n 502 507 b 118 Weekly Dairy Market Outlook Daily Prices As ofThursday, 8 February Date 02/08/01 02/08/01 1/4|-112! -124 -134 3/4^134 462 -114! 1/4 -120 475 -124 l/2(-114! (1021/2 *l2j 108 3/4 114 118 125 December 2000 to $12.13 in January 2001. Class II and IV prices are sensitive to changes in butter prices. The Class 111 price rose from $9.37 per cwt in December 2000 to $9.99 in January 2001. The Class 111 price is sensitive to changes in cheese prices. The dairy futures markets at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are still showing price strength As of February 1, 2001, the market is expecting Class 111 prices to peak at $l2 05 per cwt by August. And, the market is expecting Class IV prices to peak at $13.10 per cwt by September. As I stated last week, I can’t exactly predict what milk prices will be the rest of the year. In reality they will either be higher or lower than these prices. However, that said, the current Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages 2-Feb-01 26-Jan-01 19-Jan-01 12-Jan-01 5-Jan-01 Cheese: 500 lb. barrels 40-lb. blocks Nonfat dry milk Extra Grade Grade A Butter: Grade AA Lean Hogs Feb 01 Apr 01 Jun 01 JulOl Aug 01 Oct 01 Dec 01 Feb 02 Apr 02 2/08/01 2/08/01 2/08/01 2/08/01 2/08/01 2/08/01 2/08/01 Composite Volume Open_lnt 2/07/01 7313 41260 Live Cattle Daily Prices As of Date 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 Feb 01 8047 8060 7972 7987 Apr 01 7910 7945 7850 7872 Jun 01 7265 7280 7200 7230 Aug 01 7200 7220 7165 7172 Oct 01 7400 7407 7355 7357 Dec 01 7495 7515 7467 7467 Feb 02 7590 7595 7570 7570 Composite Volume OpenJjnt 02/07/01 16476 137273 Pork Bellies Daily Prices As of Date 62/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 02/08/01 10 10 10 10 futures prices for March through December are pretty good prices and some producers may want to lock in a portion of their milk supply. And finally, on a more humorous note, I spoke at the annual meeting of the Mt. Joy Farmers Cooperative in Southeast Pennsylvania. When the general manager Dale Hershey gave his report, he was kind enough to read a quote from my column. In front of 240 dairy producers he said, “according to Ken Bailey, and folks this is a direct quote, ‘milk prices in 2001 will be either higher or lower’.” End of quote. Let’s just say he got quite a laugh from that one! For more information regarding milk markets, see my website at: www.aers.psu.edu/dairyoutlook/ 1.1300 1-.1010 1.3308 1.2958 1.2413 1.2367 1.1338 Open High Low Last Chge f rev ’ 6 Volume 2293 3650 862 89 282 117 5440 5480 5415 5427 5700 5790 5640 5662 6390 6445 6350 6365 6180 6225 6150 6197 5965 6010 5930 5945 5287 5320 5272 5272 5055 5095 5050 5085 0 5170 5130 5170 0 5085 5085 5085 - Thursday, 8 February Open High Low Last Chge y o j^^ 5497 6510 2871 1049 482 65 Thursday, 8 February Open High Low Last Chge ~ ! >rev ' f> r & s Volume Feb 01 v 6720 6960'6720 6850 +lB3 Mar 01 6770 7047 6770 6927 +lBO May 01 6925 7185 6925 7095 +195 7050 7215 7050 7120 +145 6900 7100 6900 7095 +l6O 0 6110 6110 6110 +3O 0 6090 6090 6090 +5O JulOl Aug 01 Feb 02 Mar 02 1.0920 1.1110 Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA record sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week’s average costs of various ingred ients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Pennsylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Corn, No.2y 2.20 bu., 3.93 cwt. Wheat, N 0.2 2.43 bu., 4.05 cwt. Barley, N 0.3 —1.54 bu., 3.30 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 —1.36 bu., 4.25 cwt. Soybeans, No.l 4.29 bu., 7.17 cwt. Ear Corn 59.21 ton, 2.96 cwt. Alfalfa Hay 96.25 ton, 4.81 cwt. Mixed Hay 93.75 ton, 4.69 cwt. Timothy Hay 80.00 ton, 4.0 cwt. 1.0650 1.0705 1.0800 1.0869 Prev. Open_lnt 5605 18765 8158 1751 2551 2741 1550 132 Prev. Openjnt 20518 63637 21860 17671 9393 3480 714 177 349 62 1.0850 1.0900 1.0300 1.0300
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers