Al6-Lanca«ter Farming, Saturday, December 25, 1999 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy Of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange (Closing bids: Wednesday, December 22, 1999 Corn Daily Prices As of Symbol;C 12/20/99 DEC 99 12/20/99 MAR 00 12/20/99 MAY 00 12/20/99 JUL 00 12/20/99 SEP 00 12/20/99 NOV 00 12/20/99 DEC 00 12/20/99 JAN 01 12/20/99 MAR 01 12,20/99 JUL 01 12/20/99 DEC 01 Total 12/17/99 Soybeans Daily Prices As ot Symbol 12/20/99 12/20/99 12/20/99 12/20/99 12/20/99 12/20/99 12/20/99 12/20/99 Total 12/17/99 Oats Open DEC 99 MAR 0 0 MAY 00 JUL 0 0 SEP 00 DEC 00 1096 1142 1122 1164 1244 Volume Open_lnt 2373 12612 Weekly Dairy Market Outlook By Ken Bailey Penn State University Decembei 17, 1999 USDA Announces Milk Production Report • Novemhei milk pioduction up 4 4 pet cent • Cheese prices weaken • USDA announces 2000 suppoit puces Fedeial otder tefoini to be implemented USDA announced this week that milk production in 20 major states during November was 11 3 billion pounds, up 4 4 percent ovei a year ago Production per cow averaged 1,458 pounds, 51 pounds oi 3 6 pei cent more than November 1998 And cow numbeis continued to mciease month ovei month Cow numbeis in Novembei weie 776 million head up 58 000 head tn>m No\emhei 1098 and up 7 000 liom die month heloie Most ot the milk pmdtiUion iiKieasss weie liom the West - Monday, 20 December High 1950 2042 2110 2174 2240 22 96 2324 2344 2402 2490 2524 Open 1944 2022 2084 2150 2210 2296 2300 2344 2400 2470 2514 Volume Open__lnt 39899 387621 - Monday, 20 December High 4612 4670 4726 4790 4804 4800 4850 5040 Open 4560 4610 4654 4712 4804 4780 4840 Volume Open__lnt 27322 152062 High 1024 1100 1150 1126 1154 1244 Low 1024 1084 1134 1114 1160 1242 Idaho was up 14 9 percent, California up 12 1 percent, and New Mexico up 117 percent Milk pioduction was also up in othei states, although at much lower rates In my state ot Pennsylvania, milk production grew 2 6 percent Milk pioduction was down m Florida (-2 8 percent), Illinois (- 5 3 percent), Indiana (-3 4 peicent), lowa (-2 2 percent), Missouri (-2 7 percent), and Wisconsin (-0 3 percent) This was disappointing but expected news to the market Cow numbers and milk production continue to increase in the range of 3-5 percent each month relative to a year ago Normally milk production rises 1- 3 percent The November growth was expected since dairy farmers have not yet received any price signals to slow down The Octobei milk check was still fairly high and faimeis icceived this aiound Novembci 20th The November milk check contains a near iccoid high Class 1 pi ice 1 anncis will iccc'ive this check next week So the pain ot lowei commodity and (lass 111 puses will continue until nulk Chge -60 + 16 + 20 + 22 + 22 + 26 + 22 + 20 + 22 + 32 + 20 Last 1856 2032 2104 2172 2234 2296 2322 2344 2402 2490 2524 Low 1800 2020 2084 2150 2210 2296 2300 2344 2392 2470 2500 Chge + 62 + 70 + 72 + 74 + 74 + 82 + 74 + 34 Last 4584 4654 4716 4774 4774 4782 4840 5040 Low 4560 4610 4654 4712 4770 4770 4824 5040 Chge + 20 unch unch unch + 4 + 6 Last 1024 1084 1134 1114 1160 1242 production slows down But that won't occur until it fully shows up in the mailbox. Farmers will receive their lowest milk check around January 20 ,h Milk production should start to slow thereafter Cheese prices noticeably weakened after the milk production report was released Cheese prices at the Chicago Meicantile Exchange fell on Thursday Prices tor 40-pound blocks rose tromsl 21 per pound on Monday, December 13 to $1 22 the next day Prices tell to $1 1475 per pound by Friday, December 17. Likewise, barrel prices rose from $1,19 per pound on Monday to $1 21 on Tuesday, only to fall to $1 15 by Friday This price inversion (barrels higher than blocks) is very unusual in the cheese business. Butter prices were relatively weak at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Grade AA butter prices remained steady at $0.9050 per pound Despite relatively brisk demand, there are ample supplies of fresh and frozen butter available The market will be looking to the November stocks report tor new maiket information That should be icleased next week (Monday, Decembei 20th) It will allow us to estimate commeicial disappeaiantc, 01 maiket demand Commodits piu.es loi cheese and butlei will eilhei remain the same 01 stiemithen Lean Hogs Daily Prices As of Date Feb 00 Api 00 Jim 00 Jul 00 Aug 00 Oct 00 Dec 00 Feb 01 Apr 01 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 Composite Volume 12/20/99 2289 Live Cattle Daily Prices As ot Date Dec 99 Feb 00 Api 00 Jun 00 Aug 00 Oct 00 Dec 00 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 Composite Volume Openjnt 12/20/99 7052 116030 Lumber Daily Prices As of - Tuesday, 21 Dcccmbei Date Jan 00 Mai 00 May 00 Jul 00 Sep 00 Nov 00 Jan 01 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 12/21/99 Composite Volume Open_lnt 12/20/99 180 2829 - Tuesday, 21 Deccmbci Open High 5585 5625 5675 5750 6435 6485 6295 6335 6125 6147 5687 5692 5490 5515 5580 5650 0 5520 Open_lnt 44556 Tuesday, 21 Dcccmbei Open High 6912 6922 7112 6917 6935 7085 7215 6880 6870 7075 6902 6922 7082 7200 Open High 33730 34000 33170 32800 32700 32150 32150 33400 33680 33070 32760 USDA also announced the 2000 dairy price support levels (CCC purchase prices) They arc $0 65 per pound for butter, $ 1 10 tor block cheese, $1 07 for barrel cheese, and 1 01 tor nonfortitied nonfat diy milk The Secietary ol Agncultuie has the authonty to change the balance between butter and nonfat dry milk prices twice during the year 2000 Thus it is possible that the butter suppoit price could be raised and the nonfat dry milk price loweied in an attempt to reduce USDA purchases and budget outlays for nonfat dry milk That would Table 3. November 1999 Milk Production for 20 Select States Milk Cows Milk Per Cow * Milk Production from 1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 * 1,000 Head -—Pounds- — -—Million Pounds—- State AZ 132 CA 1-436 FL 158 ID 299 IL 126 IN 138 IA 221 KY 136 MI 298 MN 545 MO 166 NM 218 NY 702 OH 262 PA ■ 620 FX 341 v r i6i VA 123 WA 247 WI 20-sta-697 135 618 348 160 121 244 1.364 7,753 Chge Last Low +3O +6O + 37 +7O +23 +B3 + 10 Chgc Last Low +25 6902 6915 7105 6905 6927 7080 7215 6867 6870 7072 6890 6910 7070 7195 1-35 +3 3 +8 + 10 + 15 + 50 Last Chge Low -310 -50 -180 -100 -70 33270 33650 32930 32690 32620 32150 32150 33240 33610 32880 32620 32620 32150 32150 unch unch immediately reduce market prices tor powder and thus lower most class puces under order refoirn The new class price formulas are very sensitive to nonfat dry milk prices Speaking ot older icfoim, the green light is on The Secietary of Agucultuie’s final rule has been amended by the omnibus spending bill recently signed by the President USDA announced this week that order reform will begin January 1 of 2000 (see my website for details) (Turn to P«fl« A 25) 1,674 1,590 1,114 1,599 1,349 1,297 1,412 Prev. I’rev. Open_lnt 2.3829 9164 5700 1849 1144 678 186 Volume 1316 419 423 72 13 27 18 Prev, Prev Open_lnt 8860 52724 28807 13167 6619 3055 2797 Volume 1184 3537 1166 554 512 78 21 Prev, Prev, Open_lnt 1551 816 332 85 43 Volume 138 34 439 430 1.807 11,306 1,813 10,829 7.2% 12.1% -2.8% 14.9% -5.3% -3.4% -2.2% 0 0% 1 1% 1 9%. -2 7% 11 79? 2 7% 4 1% 2 69? 2 59? 0 09? 6 Br 48 r 4 2 19, -0 3', 4 4%
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers