Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 27, 1999 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy Of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Corn Daily Prices As of Symbol:C 11/24/99 DEC 99 11/24/99 MAR 00 11/24/99 MAY 00 11/24/99 JUL 00 11/24/99 SEP 00 11/24/99 NOV 00 11/24/99 DEC 00 11/24/99 JAN 01 11/24/99 MAR 01 11/24/99 JUL 01 11/24/99 DEC 01 Total 11/23/99 Oats Daily Prices As of Symbol:o 11/24/99 DEC 11/24/99 MAR 11/24/99 MAY 11/24/99 JUL 11/24/99 SEP 11/24/99 DEC Total 11/23/99 Soybeans Daily Prices As of Symbol:S 11/24/99 JAN 00 11/24/99 MAR 00 11/24/99 MAY 00 11/24/99 JUL 00 11/24/99 AUG 00 11/24/99 SEP 00 11/24/99 NOV 00 11/24/99 NOV 01 Total 11/23/99 Stocks Report Released these stock levels are below Penn State University September levels My conclusion is that this report indicates that third quarter consumption of dairy products (July - September) must have been very strong, and that current consumption must also be • American cheese stocks down • Butter stocks down • CME cheese prices above support November 19,1999 USD A issued the Cold Storage report today. September ending stocks of American cheese were revised up from 471.447 million pounds issued October 20 to 474 846 million pounds today. October stocks of American cheese are 456 976 million pounds, down 17 87 million pounds from the month before and up 15 8 percent from a year ago September butter stocks were revised down from 74 055 million pounds issued October 20 to 71 473 million pounds today October ending buttei stocks are at 59 864 million pounds, down 11 609 million ponds from the month before and up 92 1 percent from a year ago The cold storage report shows two things First, October levels of butter and cheese are still well above year ago levels. Second, (Closing bids: Wednesday, November 24, 1999 Wednesday, 24 November High 1944 2062 2134 2204 2270 2326 2364 2390 2434 2502 2560 Open 1940 2054 2124 2194 2262 2326 2360 2390 2434 2390 2560 Volume Open_lnt 77750 467942 - Wednesday, 24 November High 1060 1156 1202 1184 1230 1270 Open 1056 1156 1202 1184 1230 1270 Volume Open_lnt 3845 13062 - Wednesday, 24 November High 4710 4774 4840 4894 4910 4900 4964 5230 Open 4680 4754 4840 4894 4910 4896 4960 5230 Volume Open_lnt 42889 166382 strong. Stocks would be growing if consumption were weak. The market will likely interpret this report as neutral to bullish on prices In other words, it is clear that stocks, while high from historical levels, are heading down and that demand is strong That should help to stabilize prices I expect overall demand tor cheese the fourth quarter to be strong. The stock market reacted favorably when the Federal Reserve Board increased the federal funds rate a quarter point this week Recent reports on retail sales look favorable 1 nus despite higher interest rates and higher gas prices, retail sales this holiday season could be very good That could also mean higher sales for dairy products as optimistic shoppers eat out and entertain more at home Thus higher cheese consumption may prevent cheese Low 1930 2046 2120 2186 2260 2326 2354 2390 2430 2390 2560 Last 1046 1144 1192 1176 1220 1270 Low 1044 1142 1192 1176 1220 1270 Chge -34 -36 -34 -36 -36 -22 -26 -10 Last 4652 4716 4786 4842 4846 4852 4920 5230 Low 4640 4706 4776 4830 4844 4852 4904 5230 Lean Hogs Daily Prices As of Date 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 Composite Volume 11/23/99 13071 Live Cattle Daily Prices As of Date 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 Composite Volume Open_lnt Chge -10 -12 -12 -6 -10 -4 17650 Soybean Meal 11/23/99 Daily Prices As of Symbol:SM 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 11/24/99 Total 11/23/99 prices from falling back to support price levels. Cheese prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange this week were above support levels. Prices for 40- Cheese 500 lb barrels 40-lb blocks Nonfat dry milk Extra Grade Grade A Butler Grade AA 1 0683 Source Dairy Mailed News. AMS, USDA (http /A\ u'tt’ aim ituht tiavAhut v/iiitu r/ii eeUv htm) Table 2. NASS Weekly U.S. Average Survey Prices Cheese 500 lb Barrels 1/ 1 2056 40-lb blocks 1 2383 Butler ) 0714 Nonfat dry milk 10187 Dry whey 0 1877 Source Dairy Product Prices, NASS, USDA (http //usdo maniilib Cornell edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/1999/j I / Adjusted to 39% moisture - Wednesday, 24 November Open High 5275 5345 5635 5737 5575 5695 6267 6330 6125 6165 5870 5885 5425 5447 5300 5310 0 5350 Dec 99 Feb 00 Api 00 Jun 00 Jul 00 Aug 00 Oct 00 Dec 00 Feb 01 Open_lnt 55396 - Wednesday, 24 November Open High 7025 7092 7210 6997 6992 7110 7265 Dec 99 Feb 00 Apr 00 Jun 00 Aug 00 Oct 00 Dec 00 - Wednesday, 24 November Volume Open_lnt 29656 118561 pound blocks were $1.1225 per pound on Monday, November 15 and fell to $1.12 per pound by Friday, November 19. Barrel cheese remained steady at $1.0975 per pound all week. Cheese prices could remain at weak levels for the next two weeks as surplus milk from the Thanksgiving Holiday flows into manufacturing facilities. Prices may strengthen slightly in 19-Nov-99 12-Nov-99 5-Nov-99 29-Oct-99 22-Oct-99 1 0975 1 1220 1 1085 1 1930 1.2380 1 2705 1.1170 1.2150 1.2635 1 2840 1 0300 1 0300 1.0300 I 0300 1.0300 10300 10300 1 0300 1.0300 1 0300 I 0983 1 0933 1 0675 1 0233 13-Nov-99 06-Nov-99 30-Oct-99 23-Oct-99 16-Oct-99 Last Chge Low Last Low 7005 7080 7187 6987 6967 7105 7252 6985 7072 7185 6980 6965 7100 7250 7030 7105 7220 7010 7007 7140 7290 135555 1 2299 1 2806 1 0678 1 0181 0 1924 1 2490 1 3126 1.0534 1 0170 0 1968 Table 3. Dairy Stocks in Cold Storage Dairy Products Butler, total (Government owned) Natural Cheese American, total 394,692 (Government owned) 216 Swiss 12,362 Other natural cheese 115,658 Total natural cheese 522,712 Source USDA, Cold Storage Report Prev. Volume 5211 4798 2078 679 136 125 31 13 +35 +47 +67 + 40 +2O -8 -15 + 10 Prev. Chge Volume 7844 6076 1974 1383 200 113 60 +3 -18 -10 -23 unch -15 Last Chge 1457 -18 1444 -20 1439 -18 1440 -20 1457 -19 1456 -17 1458 -13 1455 -16 1485 -27 December from current levels if demand remains strong and stocks continue to decline. If, however, stock levels stabilize next month due to strong cheese production levels, cheese prices could remain just above support levels for the remainder of the year For more information on dairy outlook, see my web site at' http://www aers.psu.edu/dairyoutl ook/ 1 2530 1 3518 1 0414 1 0201 0.1976 1.3324 1.4462 1 1121 1 0182 0 1942 Oct 31 Sep 30 1998 1999 Oct 31 %chng 1999 year ago 1000 Pounds 31,164 71.473 8 214 59,864 92 1% 368 4500 0% 474,846 456,976 15 8% 53 -75 5% 10,831 -12 4% 154,933 34 0% 622,740 19 1% 10,595 167,220 652,661 Prev. Open_lnt 20690 20764 7306 4334 1431 601 225 42 Prev. Open_lnt 38465 49209 27226 10787 4686 2695 2487
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers