Farming, Saturday, January 31, 1998 Aft Commodity Conference Examines Challenges Farmers Face LOU ANN GOOD Lancaster Farming Staff GRANTYILLE (Dauphin Co.) The tough challenge farmers face to lay plans to meet changing government regulations, fickle consumers, industry mergers, and participation in world markets was tackled at the Commodity Outlook Conference. Sponsored by the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau, the day-long conference was held both in Dauphin and Indiana counties this week. Because future success is mea sured by two major rules: consum er demand and how Gartners react to the rapid changing and totally unpredictable market, the Farm Bureau brought together a group of experts to help farmers examine the issues amd develop a positive vision. Dr. Luther Tweeten, economic professor at Ohio State University, said that he can predict with cer tainy that the 1988 market will bring many changes to agriculture industry. It is important to look at world trends because agriculture changes are determined by global happen ings and not limited to what hap pens in the state and nation, Tweeten said. The past also plays a role. Diagrams charting production yields for cereal, vegetable, melon, dry beans, roots and tubers for the past 25 years, show a consistent increase. At the same time, the dia grams reveal a slowing of growth. For example, in 1961, the annual percent of growth in cereals was 3.20 percent In 1996, the growth rate had slowed to 1.51 percent despite the population increase. Cereal, Tweeten said, is the most important crop because it provides about half the calories for all the people of the world and is a key item in food supply. This increase in yields but slow ing of percent of increase shows a consistent pattern for all commodi ties. He sees no basis for optimism if the trend continues. On the demand side, the slowing down in percentage of crops is offset by the stowing down in the percentage of population. “For centuries the population has increased, but a turn-around in that trend will have a profound impact on agriculture. Projections from several reli able sources predict there will be zero population growth by the year 2100 and some predict it as early as 2030. In 1961, yield increases were higher than population demand, farm prices fell, and surpluses were stockpiled. By the year 2000, yields will probably be below the increase in demand, which is good news for farmers but not consumers since this translates into higher food prices. The food shortage will mostly affect people in countries where the food supply is already tight “We do not have government playing a stabilization role as in the past I think those days of carryov er are over,” Tweeten said, although he predicts the govern ment will maintain some payments after 2002, the safety net for far mers will be more to rely on reverse insurances than on govern ment intervention. Tweeten doesn’t see the govern ment’s lack of involvement in sta bilization as having a highly nega tive impact “We are getting back to a more normal situation of earlier decades. Variability is consistent with earlier decades. While a drought may drastically reduce com production in one area, it is balanced out by other areas.” Tweeten sees an inherit instabil ity in the market from global warming, higher yields, and per centage of deviation. “Instability is the number one problem of production agricul ture,” Tweeten said. He was not encouraging on the outlook of small family farms. “Family farms would disappear in a generation if not for generous mothers and fathers,” Tweeten said. He said that statistics prove there is mote profit for factory type farms. “Larger farms produce food at lower cost The statistics on this are startling.” Sec. of Agriculture Samuel Hays Jr. vows to defend the farmer's right to farm. Farms are considered commer cial size when they produce $lOO,OOO in sales annually. Twee ten considers these farms will profit in the future as long as they are managed well. While there are pressures to expand farm size, Tweeten said that other farces must be taken into consideration. In particular, he forsees the odor problem becoming more offensive to the non-farming community that will refuse to tolerate smells. While it can be expensive for small fanners to control odors, a study shows that a large hog operation could correct the odor problem in a manure lagoon for as low as ten cents a hud. “Large operations have all the advantages,” he said. The two percent decline in fami ly farms a year will continue. “Small farms can survive but will need off-farm income,” he said. The drawback is that farmers will become weary of subsidizing a hobby farm and sell out During lunch time conversation, several Carmen of small family farms were not discouraged by Tweeten’s prediction of the family farm. “It has worked for us in the past and it will continue to work,” an Amish farmer said of the help that parents give to children beginning to Cum. Tweeten display statistics showing that livestock production ii moving to the combelt Tweeten expects this trend to continue because the combelt has open spaces and low labor costs. As far as trade exports, Tweeten said that American can compete favorably with the world market as Individual commodity sessions are led by commodity experts from the American Farm Bureau Federation, from left, David Miller, Dr. Mark Jenner, and Dr. Ken Olson. long as unfavorable regulations are not imposed on them. America’s food supply is the safest in the world, which makes it attractive to buy. Some countries have aproblem trying to pay for all they want to buy. In some cases, extending credit to them will pay off in the long run as they a more stable economy. A case in point, he said, is Mexico, which has repaid with interest the money loaned to them during their economical upheaval. “We want to keep a vested inter est in these countries.” he said. He sees exports to the Asian market as short-run pain and is optimistic about the long term rewards. On the other hand, he said that some countries such as Africa will probably never be a reliable source because they need to get their gov erning policies in order, otherwise, it’s only dumping money. In a fiery speech, Secretary of Agriculture Sam Hayes Jr. prom ised to work earnestly to protect fanners’ opportunites to produce more than ever before. He said that in a great rush of environmental judgement, Pennsylvania had forced steel and textile industries to relocate. He vowed to keep that from happening to agriculture. “Agriculture must be a profit able reward for your hard work. California Jersey Produces/1,990 Pounds REYNOLDSBURG, Ohio - A new United States Jersey pro duction record has been set for fat production, making 1997 the year that milk, fat, and protein records for Jerseys were broken. BW Champs Lou W 546, VG -84% produced 26,620 pounds Milk, 7.5 percent 1,990 pounds Fat, 4.5 percent 1,206 pounds Protein in 365-days at 4 years, 11 months of age, on 3X milking. The new fat leader was owned by Brentwood Farms, Orland, Calif. This record breaking cow did not receive special treatment in Brentwood herd. After complet ing her outstanding record, "Champs Lou" died one week after calving from complications of a hardware operation. Said Bob Bignami, of Brentwood Farms, "She left us with a Stoneyrun Sooner Freddy and WF/L&M Duncan Booker calves. Though she was never management, and risk taking,” Hayes said. Hayes, who has traveled exten sively to Poland and many coun tries, spoke of how he believes American fanners fit into the trade picture. He told of visiting a 300-acre dairy farm run under die Commun ist regime when more than 700 employees were milking 200 cows. Since the fall of the Com munist regime, Hayes visited the same farm now using IS employ ees. While these countries are making strides to improve manag ing farms, Hayes believes it will be a long time before countries, which were formally communis tic, will be able to crawl out from what he'calls “a painful bomb crater—economically, socially, and politically. Hayes said many dissimilarities exist in Asian countries. It is important to look at each country differently and concentrate on relationship building time to deve lop markets. While Australia and New Zea land are serious competitors in the Asian market, Hayes said that he has been told repeatedly that coun tries prefer our products. Unfortu nately the cost of transportation is formidable. While farmers are in “an export mode,” Hayes cautioned them to pictured, she was sharp and clean with tremendous box capacity." "Champs Lou" was a daugh ter of Champion, a son of Highland Magic Duncan, PTI + 196, and M.G. Master MC Lou, EX-95%. Champion has a PTAof +.11% Fat, and has sired a num ber of high-testing daughters. Another Champion daughter, BW Champs F 203, ranks third for all-time fat production with 1,951 lbs. and was the 1995 All Amercian grand champion cow. The previous top fat record of 1,976 pounds was set in 1996 by GR J-Kay Nevada Babette. In fall of 1997, a new United States milk production record of 365 days 3X 38,030 lbs. milk 4.6% 1,732 lbs. fat 3.5% 1,333 pounds, protein DHIR V was set by Queen-Acres Boomer Celeste owned by James L. and Sharon L. Osborn, Keymar, Md. In addi tion, a new protein record was set by Barbs MBSB Dayetta-ET, not forget home, since the slate itself is the number one consumer. During the afternoon, members brake into groups for a more in depth look at the commodity in which they were interested. The dairy session was led by Dr. Ken neth Olson, public policy dairy specialist with AFBF. Dr. Mark Jenner, economist for AFBF, led the poultry commodity group. The livestock session was led by David Miller, commodity and program coordinator for AFBF. Richard Prethcr, public rela tions manager for the Farm Bureau, said that the commodities conference was held to revitalize commodity groups within the organization. “Participation by fanners is the best way to get infor mation to farmers,” he said. About ISO members attended the Dauphin County conference held on Wednesday and 100 mem bers attended the Indiana County conference held on Thursday. Dr. Luther Tweeten, eco nomic professor at Ohio State University, said that he can predict with certainy that the 1988 market will bring many changes to agriculture industry. Fat with a 365-day record, at 3.6, ot 35,910 lbs. milk 4.0% 1,439 lbs. Protein, and 4.0% 1,451 lbs. pro tein, verified. According to Bob Bignami, owner of Brentwood Farms, "Champs Lou" was just a regu lar cow. "She had always been a good, steady producer, but we never paid extra attention to her," Bignami, said. Bignami noted that herd consultant John Batchelder noticed her record and told him, "Here's one that might do something." That something was to test 7 percent for fat on all but one of her months in production. The Brentwood herd average 17,291 lbs. milk, 838 lbs. fat and 650 lbs. protein on 551 lacta tions, 3X milking, in 1996. That ranks them fourth in the nation for protein and milk production, and fifth for milk production, in herds with 300 records and over.
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