C2-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 20 1993 Survey DALLAS, Texas The na tion's hog producers will face ma jor changes in the way they fi nance, produce, and market hogs by the year 2000, according to the results of a survey released today at the National Pork Industry For um in Dallas. Tilled “The Pork Industry: Vi sion 2000,” the survey was con ducted among 250 leading hog producers, consulting swine veter inarians, meat packers, academics, and business and financial execu tives who serve the SlO billion pork industry. The study was con ducted by Brock Associates of Milwaukee and underwritten by Elanco Animal Health, a division of Eli Lilly and Company Forecast for the year 2000 is continued consolidation among producers that will sharply reduce the number ol hog larms which produce fewer than 3,000 head an nually. Hog farms producing more than a million head a year arc ex pected to jump 132 percent Irom last year’s five farms to 12 in 2000, while 100,000-hcad farms will experience a 52-pcrccnt in crease to 129 from the current 85. Environmental issues such as effective waste management and odor control arc seen as major fac tors which will impact production over the next seven years. To be competitive in 2000, pro ducers will have to master com plex and sophisticated production technologies, advanced hog gene tics, developments in veterinary medicine, nutrition, data manage ment, environmental legislation, as well as marketing and (manual planning. In order to accomplish these competitive requirements, pro ducers will work with an increas ing array of specialised agricultur al consultants. The lop six consult ing groups identified m the survey were veterinary medicine, finan cial planning, nutrition, market ing, and environmental and agri cultural engineering. While domestic and export de mands arc expected to increase (7 3 and 19 2 percent respective- AGRI-QUIP CORPORATION Projects Significant Changes ly), return in investment is project ed to slip from 16.2 percent in 1992 to 14.8 percent m 2000. Survey results indicate that 78 percent of market hogs will be purchased by packers under a car cass-value buying system by 2000 compared to 30 percent in 1992. The number of hogs fed and sold under contract is expected to rise in seven years to 35.5 percent from the average of 15.8 percent of all hogs produced in 1992 “The survey confirms industry wide concerns that consolidation will reduce the number of small operations," said Larry Graham, executive vice president of Brock Associates “Hog production is ra pidly becoming less labor inten sive and more capital intensive. In the past, one person could care lor 100 sows compared to a current ratio of approximately one person per 350-400 sows. “This shift requires greater working capital because of the growing demand for increased in vestment in buildings, equipment and technology. To survive, pro ducers will have to market top quality lean carcasses produced as efficiently as possible. In order to accomplish this, they must place greater attention on genetics, nu trition and records that track their progress.” Graham said survey respond ents described the “Ideal Hog ol 2000” as weighing 256 pounds with a lean percentage of 56.8 and a 6 6-squarc-inch loin eye. It will be market ready in 160 da>s “This type of hog is now at the up end of the producuon spec trum,” Graham said, “In 2000 it will be considered the industry norm Consistent hog quality of this standard can be attained only with efficient and cost-effective management and production methods.” The list of the top hog-produc mg stales is expected to remain re latively stable with one major shift North Carolina will move from sixth place to third behind lowa and Illinois, replacing Indiana which will drop to fifth place. 3920 Market St. Camp Hill, PA 17011 1-800-228-8032 Although banks and farm credit institutions now provide 75 per cent of all U.S. hog-production fi nancing, their total is expected to slide to 59 percent by 2000. Gain ers in production financing arc seen to be such outside sources as investor groups with a 10-pcrccnt hike, and the insurance industry which should up its share by five percent. Allied-industry financing Irom sources like feed producers and packers will gamer a six per cent increase. Underscoring the need for so phisticated and business-like man- Santinis Win NCGA Yield Contest PHILLIPSBURG, N.J. Robert and Sam Santmi won out standing honors in three separate divisions in the New Jersey National Corn Growers’ Associa tion (NCGA) National Corn Yield Contest. Robert Santini garnered first place finishes in two divisions within the contest with his win ning entry, Lynks Seeds hybrid 2757. In the no-till non-irrigated, Santini won with a yield of 203.68 bushels per acre and in the no-till irrigated with a yield of 193.16 bushels per acre. Sam Santini won second place in the ndge-till irrigated division with his entry of Lynks Seeds 2711 producing 184.29 bushels per acre. Lynks 2757 is a 112-day corn hybrid that receives Lynks highest marks for yield, emergence, stalk and root strength, car retention, harveslability, and tolerance to gray leaf spot and anthracnosc. Variety 2757 is especially adapted to the Eastern Com Belt and is a very good no-lill hybrid. Lynks 2711 is a 111-day corn hybrid that combines high yields, The company that invented the idea, and the machine, has now reinvented it - from the ground up. From the tough “walking beam” suspension to the sleek 6 ton hopper. And the price is right, too. | STOLTZFUS SPREADERS In Domestic Industry agcmcnt approaches lo raising pigs for market, the primary fac tors named for attracting financing in the opinion survey were overall operational efficiency, demon strated management ability, a sound business plan, complete and accurate records, and feed effi ciency. Sixty-six percent of the sur vey’s respondents said they be lieve the pork industry will even tually follow in the foot steps of poultry with a massive shakeout in the number of small or independ ent producers. 11 such a shakeout occurs in the strong standability, and very fast dry down. Its semi-flexible car can adapt to various plant populations. It has very good leaf tolerance lo northern and southern leaf blights and is responsive lo split nitrogen applications. Robert and Sam are customers EPHRATA (Lancaster Co.) Brubaker Agronomic Consulting Service, Inc. invites all interested growers to attend two sprayer/ planter calibration field days to be held at the following locations and dales: • March 23, Greystonc Manor Farm, 3831 Oregon Pike, Lcola, 2 p.m. • April 6, Robert Hollmgcr Farm, 410 Brcnncman Road, Wil- g MILK. IT DOES A BODY GOOD. MIDDLE ATLANTIC MILK MARKETING ASSOCIATION, INC Consulting Service Sets Field Days (215) 286-5146 2020-2050 time period, the U S pork industry could consist of less than 100 producers. Commenting on the results 01 the survey, Brian Ringers, man ager of swine products at Elanco Animal Health, said, “Even though consolidation will contin ue, a shakeout of the type seen in poultry is not anticipated for at least 25 years. Why? Today’s pork producers arc very willing io adopt new technologies that allow them to improve efficiencies and meet consumer demands for lean and nutritious pork products.” of Lynks dealer Tom Zeng of Oki wick, N.J. Zeng said, “I am very proud to have Robert and Sam representing Lynks Seeds. Lynks is known in the Midwest for its exceptional quality products and we arc starling to get some recog nition here on the East Coast with outstanding wins like these.” low Street, 10 a.m. These calibration seminars are free and open to the public. Atten dance will qualify growers lor pesticide credits. Instruction will be given on the calibration of corn planters, field sprayers, and man ure spreaders. Call Brubaker Agronomic Con sulting Service, Inc. at (717) 859-3276 to make your reservations. Call us at:
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