820-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 16, 1993 NORCROSS, Ga. Now is the time to begin planning for next year’s fertility management deci sions. Review the 1992 season, production records, and most recent soil tests. Re-evaluate yield goals for 1993 and plan fertility applications according to pro jected needs. High yields mean high removal rates. Many farmers were pleas antly surprised in 1992 with high er than expected yields. Fertilizer dealers and extension offices can Farmers Can Flourish HUNTINGDON Co.) Farmers in some U.S. lo cations can continue to make a profit even if the greenhouse ef fect warms the climate, although they may have to change crop mix and techniques, according to a Cornell University study. Harry Kaiser, a Cornell as sociate professor of agricultural economics, said his study differs from much of the previous work in this area in that his computer mod els track a gradual, decade-by dccade change in climate and give farmers the opportunity to respond with later-maturing crop varieties. A number of previous studies have looked at a one-time doub ling of greenhouse gas levels. “Farm adaptability is crucial in determining the agronomic impli cations of climate change,” he said. “Models that don’t allow for such adaptability show corn yields declining substantially after the year 2000. Our results show that com yields can be as high as 90 to 95 percent of current levels if farmers can choose later-matur ing, higher-yielding varieties.” Additionally, according to Kaiser, BREAKING MILK RECORDS! Lancaster Farming Carries DHIA Reports Each Month! CONTACT US For • DOUBLE CHAIN PIT ELEVATORS HYD. TILT AVAILABLE • COMPACT ROTO BEATERS • WISCONSIN & ALLIS CHALMER POWER UNITS • HAND-O-MATIC BULK FEEDERS • COMBINATION MOWER AND CRIMPER UNITS • 455 AND 456 MOWERS • NEW IDEA CRUSHERS • LARGE SHOP LATHE 40 TON PUNCH PRESS • CRIMPING ROLLS TO FIT YOUR NEW IDEA CRUSHER SMUCKER WELDING & MANUFACTURING 2110 Rockvala Road, Lane., PA 17602 Plan For Next Year’s Fertility Decisions provide tables to help estimate nutrients removed in harvested crops. Plans for 1993 fertilizer applications should include replacing nutrients removed in 1992 yields. High yielding crops under favorable weather conditions tend to remove nutrients from deeper in the soil profile. Dry spring and early summer conditions in 1992 in many areas encouraged deep rooting of crops. It also meant less compaction to restrict root growth. The result was subsoil In Warmer World agricultural scientists may de velop new varieties with enhanced yield. Kaiser examined two climate change scenarios, both of which have some likelihood, according to widely used models. One is armer by 2.2 degrees Celsius in the year 2070 and 10 percent wet ter. A more severe scenario in creases temperature by 4.2 de grees and diminishes precipitation by 20 percent. A warmer and welter climate docs not harm farmers in southern Minnesota, which has some of the country’s best farmland. Corn yields decline by 10 percent from current levels, while yields of soy bean and sorghum increase. Even under the hotter and drier sce nario, com yields fall just slightly more to 86 percent. “Farmers are not worse off,” Kaiser said. “They can maintain profitability by ad justing their crop mix.” The mild scenario also is kind to Nebraska farmers. Winter wheat yields could increase by as much as 2$ percent, while com declines slightly to 95 percent of current levels. Under the more sc- “mining.” Nutrient removal from deeper in the profile is not detected with normal soil testing. Soil tests may actually show increased nutrient levels in the upper part of the soil profile as plant residues decom pose and release nutrients on the surface. Subsoil “mining” and nutrient accumulation at the sur face do not reduce the need to replace nutrients removed by crops. If 1992 fertilizer applications included amounts intended to vere scenario, yields of com, soy beans, and wheat drop substan tially, but Kaiser pointed out that Nebraska farmers could offset those predicted effects by expand ing their use of irrigation. Kaiser, who plans to extend his studies to farms m Illinois, Ohio, and the Southeast, discounted any fertilizer effect from high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Some studies have proposed that plants would benefit by exposure to more carbon dioxide, but recent research has cast doubt on this view. Jon Erickson, a Cornel graduate student in resource economics, ar gued m a recent Cornell staff pap er that “Relying on carbon dioxide from industrialization to fertilize the world’s agriculture is analog ous to relying on your car’s ex haust to fertilize your home gar den.” Water supply, along with lim ited nutrients and atmospheric pollution, arc widely recognized as the chief limiting factors in crop production worldwide, he said. Some climate change scenarios predict drier climates or suggest higher variability, with frequent swings between droughts and floods. Under such conditions, more carbon dioxide in the atmos phere would not increase plant yields. • Agricultural • Commercial • Residential • Retaining Walls • Bunker Silos • Manure Storage, Etc. LET OUR EXPERIENCE WORK FOR YOU ESTABLISHED SINCE 1979! WE ORIGINATED THE CONCRETE SYSTEM! Sizes And Layouts To Your Specifications We Work Hard For Customer Satisfaction! meet the needs of the 1993 crop, high yields may have cut short the supply left for next year. Recalcu late needs and apply supplemental fertilizer if expected carryover will not meet the projected needs for next year. Dry spring and early summer reduced leaching and denitrifica tion losses of nitrogen. Higher yields were attainable in 1992 with lower rates of nitrogen than usually expected. This does not mean rates for 1993 should auto matically be cut. Remember that winter and spring rainfall and temperatures should be consid ered in estimating nitrogen which will remain in the soil over winter. Also remember that high yields in 1992 did remove more nitrogen in the harvested crop. Not all farmers harvested high yields in 1992. They may have more potential nutrient carryover for 1993, but shouldn’t expect large soil test increases for the extra carryover. Generally, for common silty clay loam soils, the soil potassium test will increase about one pound per acre for each 4 pounds of potash carryover; the phosphorus (P-1) test will increase about one pound per acre for each 9 pounds of phosphate carryover. LEBANON (Lebanon Co.) In a few hours, you can create a flattering swimsuit without break ing the budget. Attend the Swim suit Workshop at Lebanon Valley Agricultural Center Saturday, May 1, from 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. You will leant every step of construc tion as you sew the suit in class. The class is taught on a conven tional machine with serger adapta tions given. Guidance will be pro vided for buying fabric and pat terns. A class supply list will be sent upon registration. To register, send $l4 for members, $l7 for non-members to Lebanon Co. Sewing Guild, 75 Rocherty Rd., Lebanon. PA 17042. For more Commodity Bins And Trench Silos Authorized Dealer For KEYSTONE CONCRETE PRODUCTS • Hog. & • Trench Cattle Silo Slats Walls • H-Bunks • J-Bunks Swim Suit Workshop Best advice is to plan normal application rates for the 1993 crop. Remember that carryover phosphorus and potassium will contribute to building soil tests and will be accounted for in the next round of soil testing. Don’t overreact to low crop prices. Unfortunately, high crop yields over large production areas can result in lower market prices. That does not justify cutting back on basic inputs such as fertilizer. Over a wide range of fertilizer and crop prices, the optimum rate of fertilizer for maximum economic yield production does not change. Plan for normal applications for the 1993 crop, regardless of the prices. When crop prices are low, there is an even stronger incentive to increase yield levels to opti mum so that fixed costs can be distributed over more units of yield and profits can be increased. We cannot predict the 1993 growing season. This year brought many surprises. Consider the points above as you plan for the coming season. Most important— plan for a good year! That will insure the system will be in place to support a good crop, and the resources will also be available to reduce stress should the season be less than ideal. information, call Linda at (717) 274-1197. } PANTS WORKSHOP LEBANON (Lebanon Co.) Getting pants to fit can be frustrat ing. Learn how to choose the right size pattern and alter it according to your body shape at a Pants * Workshop sponsored by Lebahon Co. Sewing Guild. Choose one of two workshops to be held at the Quality Inn, 625 Quentin Rd„ Lebanon, on Thursday, January 21, from 9:30 to 11:30 a.m. of 7-9 p.m. To register, send $B, if mem ber, $lO, if non-member, to Leba non County Sewing Guild, 75 Rocherty Rd., Lebanon, PA 17042 or call (717) 274-1197. INC. 430 Concrete Ave., Leola, PA 717-656-2016
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