Experts See Opportunity In Markets For MARKET OUTLOOK AS WE ENTER THE 1990’s The National Outlook Confer ence held in Washington in late November shed new light on pros pects for 1990 and beyond. The nation’s economy celebrated 7 years of economic growth in November. This is an amazing performance considering tjhat average length of economic growth between recessions has been only 36 months since World War 11. Some economists expect a recession in 1990. If we get a recession it will be a very mild one. The so-called “soft landing” being engineered by the Federal Reserve would cause very little damage to the economy. Net farm income in 1990 is projected at $44 to $49 billion. This would be only 2 to 5 percent below 1989’s record. Most of the weakness in income is expected to be shoul dered by grain producers. Grain output in 1990 should be up, resulting in lower prices. There is also likely to be less support from government payments, but lower interest rates should stimulate some growth in the economy. BEEF - Total beef supplies which were unchanged in 1988, fell 3 percent in 1989. Production in 1990 will probably increase about 1 percent from 1989 but will remain below production levels of 1983-88. The stage is being set for increased production of fed beef but cow slaughter should decline. It appears a higher percentage of heifers are going back to farms for herd replacements. Cow-calf operators have been encouraged by high prices and improved pro fits. Herd rebuilding will result in fewer animals being slaughtered in 1990. Net returns to cow-calf FARROWING CRATES - GESTATION STALLS - PENNING - FLOOR FRAMES - SCRAPER BLADES u Proven Solid Steel Rod Bow Round Bottom Stainless Proctor Hydraulic Bar Crate w/Front Arch Steel Sow Feeders Crate Prevents Crushing Solid Steel Rod Gestation Stalls |y-' Solid Steel Breeding Penning WE CAN CUSTOM FABRICATE EQUIPMENT TO MEET YOUR NEEDS - AT A PRICE YOU CAN AFFORD operators have averaged about $4O per head in 1989 and may increase to $45 to $5O per head in 1990. Fed Steer prices in 1990 should average $2 to $4 per hundred weight higher than in 1989. Cattle prices should reach $BO for a brief period in the first half of the year. Lower feed prices than a year ago will be helpful to feeding margins but it will be difficult for cattle feeders to turn a positive net mar gin. Losses in 1989 ranged from $4 to $l2 per hundredweight depending on the month cattle were sold. HOGS - Pork supplies increased 9 percent in 1988 and another 1 percent in 1989. After 2 years of losses, we would expect pork supplies to decrease in 1990. It appears, however, that pork sup plies will increase 1 percent nationally in 1990. In Pennsylva nia supplies will increase much greater than national figures indi cate. The September report indi cated that hog numbers in Pen nsylvania are up 9 percent. Inten tions in September were to farrow 13 percent more sows in the slate than a year ago in the Scptcmbcr- November period. Net returns to hog producers have improved in recent months and returns are well above cash costs but slightly short of covering all costs. Part of the stronger market in the fall resulted from a reduction of pork imports from Canada and Europe and a stronger demand from U.S. consumers. Hog prices during the next several months will be stronger than dur ing the same months in 1988 and 1989. The potential for substantial price increases for hogs and cattle Stainless Steel Feed & Water Troughs m t" ,'f Solid Steel Solid Steel Nursery Penning Finishing Penning , (1i 3L # will be restricted because we will have another record supply of meat in 1990. Broiler supplies, which were up 7 percent in 1989 will increase another 7 percent in 1990. Turkey output was up 6 per cent in 1989 and should increase at least 5 percent in 1990. Prepared by //. Louis Moore, Agricultural Economics BEEF BY-PASS PROTEIN VS. UREA IN FEEDLOT DIETS A recent University of Nebras ka study has shown by-pass or escape proteins were more desir able than urea-based supplements in diets in the early feeding phase. In addition, they u, md calves implanted at 53 days of age with a growth-promoting implant were 15 lbs. heavier at weaning and maintained this weight advantage over non-implantcd steers through the finishing phase. The so-called by-pass proteins arc those that escape degradation by the rumen bacteria and arc absorbed directly in the lower gut of the steer. The purpose of using these proteins is that they arc sometimes more efficient in pro viding protein from direct absorp tion, rather than being “eaten" by the bacteria and absorbed as bac terial protein. The proteins used were, a combination of blood meal and feather meal which are known to have high by-pass capabilities. The steers in this study were fed dry rolled com with one or the other of the protein sources and they were evaluated at 41 days, 136 days and at finish. The calves were put on feed at approximately 600 lbs. and the trial was con ducted over two years. The results Surprise Sow Feeding Systems were calves receiving escape pro teins Omsumcd a similar amount of feed, gained slightly faster and were slightly more efficient than those receiving urea-based sup plements. This was particularly true for the first 136 days on feed where the calves with escape pro tein diets consumed more feed, gained .21 lbs. per day more and ate .3 lbs. less feed per lb. of gain. These steers did not show this response between 136 days on feed and finish. This demonstrates using escape proteins early in the feeding per iod will result in better perfor mance than when using urea based supplements. However, the cost per unit of the escape proteins is higher and it can be replaced with the urea supplements later in the feeding period. Prepared by John W. Comerford, beef specialist USING ROUND BALE SILAGE A recent report from the Uni versity of Florida has summarized some of the management advan tages and disadvantages of using round bale silage when compared to conventional hay systems and fresh-chopped silages. Some of the advantages cited for round bale silage included: * Decrease in the time used to dry the forage compared to hay * Reduced chances of rain damage to the forage * Reduced field los ses * Increased harvesting flexi bility to optimize forage quality * Excellent dry matter recovery compared to chopped silage * Decreased energy costs compared to chopped silage * Lower initial capital costs compared to chopped silage Some of the disadvantages cited were: * Increased capital costs Have you ever thought about pumping your manure to the fields instead of hauling it. NOW is the time for some special deals on travelers and under ground P.V.C. mains. Contact us now for: Free field layouts and price quotes. Zimmerman Irrigation RD #3) Box 186 Mlfflinburg, PA 17844 (717) 966-9700 Lancaster Farming, Saturday, December 1, 1990-Al7 1990 s compared to haying systems ♦ Annual costs for expendable sup plies such as bags and plastic * Susceptibility of the plastic to sun light and rodent damage The work by Kunkle et at. indicated there was a sizeable difference in the cost per unit of dry matter in 3 sys tems under review. They reported the cost per unit of dry matter ( a more realistic feed cost) was $29.00, $15.80 and $21.30 per ton, respectively, for bale bags, long tubes and stretch wraps. These costs included the cost of purchase for staffers and bale wrapping machines which were depreciated over 3000 bales There are several custom units available for rental or lease in Pen nsylvania which may change this costs in our area. Some of their other conclusions were: * The primary advantage of the round bale silage system is the greater flexibility of harvest to optimize forage quality. * Dry matter recovery, cattle gains and consumption of forage (grass) was greater for forage that was wilted to about 50% diy' matter before harvest. * Inoculating round bale silage with lactic-acid producing bacteria temporarily improved bale quality, but secondary spoil age was not prevented. * Treat ment of round bale silage with a combination of enzymes contain ing cellulose (to break down indi gestible plant cell wall material) and a microbial inoculant tended to increase consumption and dry matter recovery. * Ammonia treatment of grass silages improved consumption and recov ery of wilted bale silage, but was detrimental to direct-cut, unwilled round bale silage. Dealin’ Days CASH BACK UP TO $1250 6.9% 5 year low lease plan OFFERS END DECEMBER 31ST Prepared by John IV. Comerford, beef specialist BAUER OR 9.9% 3 year financing plan
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