OPINION Farming Cycles; Clue To The Future? "Fanning’s financial well-being has depended on the weather, domestic supply and demand, and world economic conditions since before the Declaration of Indepen dence,” says historian Wayne Ras mussen. He recently retired from USDA’s Economic Research Service. Reporting in the Farm Credit System’s financial management journal for farmers and ranchers called Farming Rasmussen says American agriculture has gone through a series of boom and bust cycles. Those may shed some light on the future of today’s troubled farm sector. A good place to start looking at the cycles is the Civil War, nearly 130 years ago. Military demand during the Civil War created a strong domes tic market for farm products. Then, the end of the war brought on an agrarian depression that lasted the rest of the century. Poor weather in the United States and economic depression in Europe, which had been a major export market, also contributed. The turn of the century brought better times for farmers. The dis appearance of the frontier slowed the amount of new land being put into farming. Land values increased 118 per cent between 1900 and 1920. Bad weather in Europe stepped up fore ign buying and a flood of new U.S. immigrants meant that farmers had about a million new mouths to feed each year. Even the discovery of gold in Alaska, which triggered a mild inflation, benefited U.S. fanners. Demand from World War I put the finishing touches on a period of strong farm profits. Farmers responded to the boom years in much the same way many of their grandsons and grand daughters responded to the bullish spiriLof the 19705, says Rasmus sen. They borrowed heavily to expand their operations and land values soared. In July of 1920, all that came to an end when prices collapsed because of falling exports. Wheat fell from $2.16/bu. in 1919 to $1.03 in 1921. “Europe learned a lesson from the war and was determined to work toward agricultural self sufficiency,” says Ramussen. “It never wanted to be so dependent on imports again and, consequent ly, U.S. exports fell.” Land values also dropped and this, coupled with a sudden tight ening of credit, plunged farmers into serious financial problems. “Although the farm depression of the 1920 s looks a lot like today’s problems, I would urge caution in drawing any comparison,” says Douglas Bowers, an ERS histo rian. “The farm problems of the 1920 s were soon compounded by the Great Depression of the 1930 s and the Dust Bowl period, a com bination of tragic events that hasn’t been seen is this country since.” New Deal farm programs began to improve the rural economy in the latter half of the 19305. But it wasn’t until World War II that far mers, and the U.S. economy as a whole, fully recovered. Between 1940 and 1945, war demand raised farm prices almost 90 percent. A bushel of wheat climbed to $1.50 up from 69 cents just before the war. Income per farm rose 92 percent in con stant dollars. Prosperity continued into the post-war era. But American farm ing was changing. During the war, tens of thousands of people left the countryside for jobs in the cities and never returned. New machin ery and technology created a surge in farm productivity that surpassed anything experienced before. Greater productivity created large surpluses, pushing down prices and income. Falling prices and the inability to buy into the new technology forced some less competitive farmers out of business. In 1940, there were more than 6 million farms. By 1960, the num ber had fallen to below 4 million and the farm economy was at the bottom of another downward spi ral that had begun after the Korean War. “It wasn’t until the late 1960 s that we got rid of the price depressing surpluses,” says Ras mussen. “India had several years of drought and bought heavily from us. Also, the Soviet Union was making big purchases indi rectly through other countries. Then, in 1972, the Soviets started making direct purchases and world demand for U.S. farm products really took off.” The buoyant 1970 s were fol lowed by the bitter reversals of the 1980 s. That’s a pattern that hasn’t been uncommon in history. What happens from here? “In a sense, you can say it has to get better,” says Rasmussen. “His tory shows us that agricultural problems are cyclical and all cycles come to an end eventually. ‘The trouble is,” he says, “is that history doesn’t enable us to predict when the current one will end. You can’t say we have 10 years left on this one just because the depressed farm cycle of the 1920 s and 1930 s Ventilation is most important during hot and humid weather. During hot weather our broiler and layer houses need more air move ment inside the house. I would suggest placing circulating fans inside the house to move more air across the birds. This will definate ly give relief. In weather reports it’s known as the “chill” factor. If you move air at the rate of SOO c.f.m. across the birds, it will reduce the temperature-to-the bird by 10 degrees. I know if the temperature is 95 degrees outside it will not be any cooler than 95 degrees inside, but the chill factor would make it feel like 85 degrees to the bird. Another very important factor during hot weather is to ventilate the attic. The best way is to have an inlet at one end and an exhaust fan at the other end. If you don’t move the air out of the attic, the tempera ture can rise to over 150 degrees. This trapped hot air will eventually work down through the insulation and into the house. To Check Alfalfa For Leafhoppers Farm Calendar Saturday, July 11 Berks County Cattlemen’s Field Day, Devereaux-Sohd, New Bolton Center, Genetics Unlimited. Pa. Ayrshire Association Field Day, Harold Kulp, Pottstown. Annual Picnic, Pa. Nut Growers Association, Raymond Curan zy Farm, Annville. Milking Shorthorn Society Field Day, Three Springs Farm, Newville. Sunday, July 12 Youth Institute, Pa. Association of Farmer Cooperatives, Juniata College; continues through July 15. lasted about 15 years.” Some economists are suggest ing that we’ve already bottomed out and are starting on a gradual upswing now, he notes. “There is nothing in history to disprove that,” Rasmussen adds. “The fact is we won’t really know the duration of this down cycle until it, too, becomes part of our past” NOW IS THE TIME By Jay Irwin Lancaster County Agent To Check Ventilation System During Hot Weather We’ve seen a big increase in the (Turn to Page A3l) number of leafhoppers and aphids on our alfalfa this year. Much of the second crop is showing heavy damage. It appears yellow at a dis tance but up close, heavy leaf dam age is evident. At this stage of maturity, it’s best to cut it. Then spray the stubble to protect the third cutting. The Agronomy Guide lists a number of materials that are effective, including Guth ion, Carbaryl, Furidan, Malathion and Methoxychlor. Cygon is effec tive on a week to ten days regrowth. Always follow label directions. To Use Pesticides Safely If you ever spill a pesticide on your skin, wash it off immediately. Research by a dermatologist shows that washing is most effec tive within one minute of exposure and less effective half an hour after exposure. This indicates the urgent need for immediate attention fol lowing the skin exposure to pesticides. The research also shows that the amount of absorption of pesticides through the skin varies with the location on the body. The forehead absorbs seven times as much pesti cide as the forearm. And the scalp absorbs four times as much as the forearm and palm. The three areas YIELD THE RIGHT OF WAY! July 12,1987 Background Scriputre: Romans 5:12 through 6-23. Devotional Reading: Romans 6:20-23. If you drive a car, there have been countless times when you’ve seen thosel signs that command you to “YIELD.” What it means, of course, is that two rights of way are converging and, if a collision is to be avoided, one of those rights of way must yield or give way to the passage of the other. It doesn’t mean that you must necessarily stop, but that you give precedence to someone else. We may not like doing this, but we’ve all learned a long time ago that it is the only way to avoid a collision. There are limes when, for our own safety, we must give way. So it is in the larger view of life, too. There are times when our lives are on a collision course and we must yield to a higher power and good than ourselves. My desire for power and success, must yield to God’s will for righteousness. My longing for security may have to be yielded to God’s call to take up a cross. My compulsion to hide my sins from scrutiny may need to give way to God’s call to repen tance. Thus, Paul wanrs us, “Do not yield your members to sin as instruments of wickedness, but for the entry of pesticides into your body are through the mouth, nose and skin. It is very important that protec tive covering be worn by anyone that mixes and applies pesticides. Face masks and protective cover ing are available through many farm supply stores. To Keep Dogs Under Control The summer months increase outdoor activity with your dog. Keep in mind that a dog owner’s responsibility is to keep his pet under control at all times. Roam ing dogs cause accidents, bite, damage property and can be a gen eral nuisance. They also carry dis ease from farm to farm. Dogs are personal property and the owners are responsible for any damage caused by their pets. Many dog related problems would be alleviated if owners were more aware of their responsibili ties. All pet owners really need to do is to have their dogs licensed, innoculated for rabies and keep them under control. Remember, all dogs six months of age or older must be licensed. A license is an inexpensive means to identify your dog if it should stray. It also shows you care for your pet The Cooperative Extension Service is an affirma tive action, equal opportunity educational institution yield yourselves to God (Romans 6:13). OUR CHOICE What does it mean to “yield”? When we’re driving our car, it means that we give the right of way to someone else. In the J.B. Phil lips translation, we are admon ished not to “hand over your bodi ly parts to be, as it were, weapons of evil for the devil’s purposes.” The New English Bible uses a similar terminology, “put yourselves at the disposal of God.” The Jerusalem Bible renders this as: “you should, ; instead, offer yourselves to God.” ya Each of these translations of this H| passage use different language, but the meaning is the same: serve God and him alone. It is acknowledged that we are constantly confronted ** with the choice of serving God or serving evil. In Romans, Paul makes it clear that none of us are compelled to serve either God or the devil. The responsibility is ours; we can choose to be subject to the will of God or the forces of evil. We will serve one or the other and the choice is ours. To be sure, few of us knowingly make a commitment to let evil dominate us. Even people whose lives are clearly in the grip of evil often do not realize the extent to which they are slaves to sin. We all make choices, however, and those choices, small and inconsequential as they may seem, may lead us deeper and deeper into the grip of evil. Thinking that we are in con trol of our own lives, we fail to realize that our daily choices have put us squarely into the power of evil. SERVANTS OF GOD So it is not a question of whether we will be servants or not. The only question is whom we will serve. In the RSV, Paul calls us “slaves of God” in contrast to being “slaves of sin.” But the New English Bible, I think, is clos er to Paul’s meaning when it speaks of being “bound to the ser viceofGod.” Itis not that our Jrce dom to choose has been taken away from us, but that we have given it over into God’s hands. It is the difference between bound and binding ourselves the differ ence between the slave who is compelled and the servant who yields to the will of another. (Sued on copyrighted Outlines produced by the Com mittce on the Uniform Senes tnd used by permission Released by Community A. Suburban Press)
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