Economists Moke 1987 Predictions At Hamilton Seminar LANCASTER - A leading Weaver, the budget deficit and the Philadelphia economist and in- merchandise trade deficits. “Yet vestment counselor told farmers even though we are in the fifth year and agribusiness persons here of expansion, the economy still Tuesday that there is no reason for looks rather bright,” Weaver a recession in 1987. Speaking at concluded. Hamilton Bank’s Agri Education H. Lewis Moore, Extension Seminar, James W. Weaver, port economist for Penn State folio manager for Dearden, University, said that large grain Maguire and Weaver, Inc., said surpluses will effect commodity that all the things that normally prices all year. Cheap grain equals happen before a recession have not cheap livestock and livestock occurred-low umemployments products. Yet beef men should be rates, high capacity utilization, able to make a little money in 1987. rising inflation and high levels of And the same factors are present business inventories. None of these * n bog production, conditions exist,” Weaver said. Moore showed figures that in “ However, because of the in- dicated total red meat production creased business activity during may be down as much as 4 percent the last half of 1986 to beat the new fr° m last year. But that broilers tax reform laws, we’ll have a and turkey production were up so rather weak economy in 1987,” that we have nearly as much meat Weaver said. “But I think we will total as we had last year, get through 1987 with real growth. Dairy production is down from Not great growth, but a total last year. And replacement heifers growth of about 1% to 2 percent for are still down in the total U.S. theyear.” picture. But Pennsylvania Weaver sees interest rates stable dairymen have begun the ex to down a little. And inflation a pansion of their replacement little worse than 1986 (3% to 4 beifers. percent at the consumer price Larry G. Jenkins, Extension level). But only because energy economist at Penn State prices aren’t going down any University, said that we have more. widened our base of taxation so We still have several major that though the rates are not as problems in the U.S. according to high, yet the total tax dollars will Feed Your Work Horses And Mules For Maximum Performance Omolene 1 Horse Charge™ - a 33% pelleted protein supplement, fortified with vitamins and minerals to be mixed with your homegrown grain. See us for all your horse's needs.— 6 S. Vintage Rd. Paradise, PA 17562 (717)442-4183 (717)768-3301 * Registered trademark of Ralston Purina Company Omolene® 200 - a sweet feed for performance, formulated with 14% protein plus all necessary energy, vitamins and minerals. Hess’s Unionville Horse Feed - a high quality, economical complete feed available in 11 %, 13% and 16% protein mixes. Formulated using Purina Horse Charge so it includes the necessary vitamins and minerals. kssMuis ES. I PURINA CHDWS | This crowd of farmers ai . ag( jsiness persons gai rat the Farm ai in Lancaster for the Hamilton Bank Agri Education Seminar. be greater. “Some people will pay less taxes,” he said. “And about $l2O million was taken from the general public and assessed to businesses. We lost capital gains, and investment credit was repealed.” One thing that especially affects farmers, according to Jenkins, is the preproductive expenses. “Cash farm expenses typically have been lypuwiiiiV JmmU L v ••>’»■» j W* Rt. 82 Unionville, PA 18375 (215)347-2377 Lancaster Farming, Saturday, Fabniary 2t, IM7-Al9 deducted by farmers with no distinction between current operating expense and preproductive expense,” Jenkins said. “Preproductive expenses are those cash expenses required on an annual basis to support assets that are not yet producing income. Examples are expenses of raising replacement breeding cattle and developing orchards.” David M. Kohl, associate professor Department of Agricultural Finance, Virginia Tech, gave some warning signs of a problem loan. “Historically agriculture has been considered a strong industry composed of borrowers who repay their loans on time,” Kohl said. “But current economic and financial conditions have created payback difficulties for even the most conscientious and honest farm borrower.” Ac ITNGLEY TOUGHS FARM AND OUTDOOR FOOTWEAR J#lsoo Knee Boot Sm - 6Vi - 8 Med. - 8 - 9Vt Lg. - 9Vi -11 X Lg. -11 -13 Giant -13 -15 *15.25 Button Boot (2700 Series) j 1 D -11-13 1 / G-4-6 *TM Order $20.00 Or More And We Pay The Freight Key-Aid Distributors 225 Wood Corner Rd , Lititz, PA 17543 717-738-4241 Call Us Toll free! 1-800-453-9243 In PA Call 1-800-253-9243 Home Center cording to Kohl there are numerous indicators of loan ser vicing difficulty that lenders and borrowers can use as warning signs. “Among those listed are debt service ratio, farm operating expense-farm earnings ratio, increase in accounts payable, underestimated family living expenses, liquidity and solvency and increasing debt to asset ratio or percent equity can be a forerunner of potential problems,” Kohl said. The annual bank seminar was under the direction of the Hamilton Bank Agri Finance Department whose chairman is Darwin Boyd. Other department members in clude John Moose, Roger Rohrer, Jeffrey Troutman, Patricia Trout and Lisa Shelly. About 200 persons attended the ag seminar in the Farm and Home Center. #l4OO-10" 1 Closure Boot Sm. - 6Vi - 8 Med. - 8 - 9Vi Lg. -9Vi -11 X Lg. -11 -13 Giant -13 -15 •11.95 « #l3OO Hi Top Work Rubbers Sm - 6Vt - 8 Med-8-9 1 /* Lg. -9V2 -11 $0 m X Lg. -11 -13 V D| I U We Ship UPS Everyday
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