C6-Uncast*r Fanning, Saturday, January 11,1986 Prospects for ag trade in ’B6 BY DR. EARL H. BROWN Agricultural Economist, University of Maryland COLLEGE PARK, MD - The value of agricultural exports is expected to be $32 billion in 1985, down almost 16 percent from 1984 (Table 1). This is below the peak of $44 billion reached in 1981, but considerably above the 1970 level of seven billion dollars. The major reasons for the decrease in 1985 were: generally lower prices, loan rates above world prices, increased grain production around the world and reduced dairy production in the European Community (EC). Imports of agricultural products ' are expected to reach $2O billion in 1985, one billion dollars above 1984 and nearly 16 times the amount in 1970. Most of the increase in 1985 was due to higher prices, as ton nage increased less than one percent. The increase in imports can be attributed to the strong dollar, consumer demand, and the need for some countries to earn foreign exchange. Export tonnage decreased for the fifth consecutive year in 1985, to 129 million metric tons (mmt) (table 2). This is down from 144 mmt in 1984 and 164 mmt in 1980. The largest decreases occurred in wheat (27%) soybeans (14%) and cotton (13%). The main reasons were: lower dairy production in the EC, increased competition Lancaster Farming P.O. Box 366 Lititz, PA 17543 717-394-3047 or Lititz 717-626-1164 Mon., Tues., Wed., 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Thurs. & Fri. 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. The following categories are available tor your classified advertising in Section C. Deadline- Thursday morning at 9 of each week's publication 1 - Farm Equipment 2 • Farm Equipment Wanted 3 - Silos and Unloaders 4 - Building and Supplies 5 - Grain Equipment 6 - Dairy Equipment The following categories are available for your classified advertising, in Section B. Deadline- Wed nesday afternoon at 5 of each week’s publication. 7 - Livestock Equipment 8 -Cattle 9 • Horses & Mules 10-Sheep A Goats 11 - Swine 12 - Artificial Breeding 13 - Hog Equipment A Supplies 14 - Poultry A Supplies 15 - Feed A Seed 16 • Fertilizer 17-Plants 18 - Fruits & Vegetables 19 - Nursery 20-Lawn & Garden 21 - Services Offered 22-Custom Work 23 -Help Wanted 24 - Situations Wanted 25 - Business Opportunities 26-Household 27 - Pets 28- 29- Found 30- 31 - Notice 32 - Miscellaneous- . 33 - Recreational Vehicles 34 - Autos - 35 - Trucks and Trailers |36 - Real Estate from the EC and India for wheat and Argentina and Brazil for soybeans. The value of agricultural exports to the USSR is expected to reach $2.8 billion, up from $2.5 billion in 1984 and $983 million in 1983 (table 3). The USSR imported cotton to offset a poor cotton crop and feed grains to replenish stocks depleted in 1984 as a result of a poor grain harvest and increased livestock numbers. The value of exports to all other major destinations decreased, with the largest decreases oc curring in Western Europe, Japan and Mexico. Agricultural exports to the EC declined because of in creased grain production in the EC, slow economic growth, weak demand for livestock products, decreased milk production, the strong dollar and the use of EC wheat for feed. Increased competition from China for com, cotton, and soybeans and from India for wheat were the main reasons for decreased exports to Japan. Ex ports to Mexico fell because good corn and soybean crops reduced the need for imports. Forecasting agricultural exports for 1986 at this time is subject to a wide margin of error. USDA says the outlook for 1986 is not bright for either tonnage or prices. Wheat tonnage is expected to decrease about 6.5 mmt, while coarse grain CLASSIFIED AD ORDER BLANK MAIL TO: LANCASTER FARMING P.O. Box 366, Lititz, PA 17543 NOTE: Please do not use this form for Mail Box Market Ads, see instructions in Section D with Mailbox Markets. Name Address City Zip Please publish my word ad starting with the 'Box Replies: Ads with answers coming to a box number, do Lancaster Farming; $2.00 additional. This newspaper will not be responsible for more than one incorrect insertion of any advertisement. ■ i I j | j ■ 2 ■ 3 J 3 If current share is maintained, US agricultural exports could increase about 2.0-2.5 percent per year. If the US, through its superior agricultural research and extension programs, gets farmers to adopt new technologies faster here than in other countries, the US could underprice competitors and increase its market share. PLEASE WRITE CLEARLY State Phone ( ) I enclose tonnage is expected to be down about 5.6 mint. Soybean tonnage may be up slightly if Brazil and Argentina reduce exports as expected. In creased production in both im porting and competing exporting countries is the main reason US exports will be down. On the plus side, the Ad ministration announced the establishment of a “war chest” and promised more aggressive action against countries using unfair trade practices. Population and income are the two major driving forces behind long run demand for food. World population increase has slowed to about 1.6 percent per year, but increasing income is expected to push the long run demand for food up about 2.0-2.5 percent per year. Production around the world will increase as a result of bio technology, new land, irrigation and economies of larger farms. The US will have to fight hard to maintain its share of world agricultural trade. DEADLINES* SECTION B - WEDNESDAY AT 5:00 P.M. SECTION C - THURSDAY AT 9:00 A.M. OF EACH WEEK'S PUBLICATION times issue. Classify under Table 1. U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE, SELECTED YEARS 1 1970 1975 1984 1986* Chug.. 1984-1915 (percent) -15.9 +5.8 -37.3 (million dollars) Exports 6,958 21,854 38,031 32,000 Imports 5,686 9,470 18,898 20,000 Balance 1,272 12,384 19,133 12,000 Tfcble 2. TONNAGE OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS BY COMMODITIES 1 1972 1975 1984 Animal & An. Prod. Grain & Feed Oil Seeds 1,448 45,362 67,979 107,459 97,100 &Prod. Other Total 15,931 5,871 68,612 Table 3. VALUE OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS BY DESTINATION 1 1981 1984 1980 Western Europe Eastern 12,033 Europe USSR Asia Africa Latin 2,281 1,414 14,129 2,181 America Oceania Canada Unknown Total 5,478 189 1,750 1,206 40,481 year October 1 to September 30, as of August 1985 SOURCE: U.S.D.A. CLASSIFIED ADVERTISING BATES 29* per word per week -1 or 2 times 23* per word per week - 3 or more times 11 word minimum Words ITime 2 Times 3 Times up to 11 3.19 6.38 7.59 *2 3.48 6.96 8.28 !3 3.77 7.54 8.97 14 4.06 8.12 9.66 4.35 8.70 10.35 4.64 9.28 11.04 17 4.93 9.86 11.73 18 5.22 10.44 12.42 19 5.51 11.02 13.11 20 5.80 11.60 13.80 (1000 metric tons) 1,424 1,999 17,010 7,114 93,527 26,336 7,780 143,574 (million dollars) 11,286 9,264 741 2,512 1,940 1,573 15,965 15,210 2,868 2,792 6,869 5,282 208 216 2,022 1,936 1,132 43,788 38,031 1985 Change 1984-1985 (percent) 1,700 -14.9 - 9.6 22,800 7,400 129,000 -13.4 - 4.9 -10.2 1985 2 Change 1984-1985 (percent) 6,900 -25.5 -19.0 + 11.5 -18.5 - 9.3 600 2,800 12,400 2,600 -11.0 - 7.4 - 7.0 4,700 200 1,800 -15.9 32,000
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