C34—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, December 27,1980 Tight supplies push feed grain prices up LANCASTER - Tight supplies and rising demand have had a dramatic impact on the feed gram situation • Prices have risen enough to call sorghum, oats, and com in Reserve I (with a call price of $3.15) from the farmer-owned reserve. Barley has been released. Rising interest rates and storage costs are pushing the cost of holding gram in in ventory to an all-time high. There is a wider dif ferential than Usual between current cash gram prices and prices for future delivery partly reflecting costs of holding inventories. For example, in early December, com futures for December 1981 delivery were about 21 to 30 cents oer bushel above the No. 2 yellow Chicago cash prices, compared with a year ago when the two were nearly the same Prices for March 1981 delivery were about 45 cents above the Chicago cash prices, compared with 16 to 20 cents a year ago. Here are some more facts to consider as you make your marketing plans: The sharp drom m U S output pulls total world coarse gram production down about three percent However, would con sumption likely will exceed production, and world trade is expected to rise three percent. The United States will supply the bulk of the increase in exports and will account for about 72 percent Fertilizer outlook (Continued from Page C 32) reduced use by developed market economics. World fertilizer prices rose less rapidly in 1980 than in 1979, because feedstock costs rose more slowly and con sumption growth slowed Prices of some phosphate fertilizers are lower now than in early 1980 World supplies of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers should be adequate to meet expected demand through 1984-85, but potash supplies are forecast to be tighter during the next three years The current surplus in ammonia supply capability is expected to peak in 1981-82 at just over four million metric tons of nutrient and then decline steadily to about 033 million tons in 1984/85 Surplus supply capability for phosphates is forecast to average about 1 million metric tons of nutrient through 1984-85 For potash supply capability, deficits of 0.6 to of the world trade total Total use of U S feed grams (domestic use plus exports) should nearly match last year’s record which will drop stocks to about 21 million metric tons by the end of 1980/81. This compares with the 52 million tons at the end of 1979/80 and it would be the smallest U S carryover since 1975/76. President Carter signed into law the Agricultural Act of 1980 on December 3. It raises loan rates for 1980- and 1961-crop feed grams and wheat placed m the farmer-owned reserve Producers with 1980 crops already in the reserve may also request the higher price supports It also waives interest on reserve loans for those crops. It does not change reserve release and call prices, nor raise loan rates on regular nine-month loans This provides grain producers an opportunity for an interest-free reserve loan at a higher loan rate than what had been available, but only on 1980 and 1981 crops eligible for a reserve that has not been called At present, since sorghum and oats have been called, only 1980-crop com, barley, and wheat are eligible for the reserve on the new terms. The Crop Reporting Board has published in the Federal Register an intent to cancel the January Prospective Plantings report. That 0 7 iijAiiiuii Audi it, -vans of nutrient are forecast through 1981-82 Potash supply and demand may be about balanced in 1982-83, and a more com fortable supply situation should result in 1983-84 when major new Canadian mines begin production SC KOEHRIIMO. ==^_ PORTABLE -|LX%- OIL-FIRED HEATERS ENERGY SAVING, INSTANT HEAT WITHOUT INSTALLATION • Operates on kerosene or fuel oil • Plugs into any standard 115 volt grounded outlet • No special wiring or Installation necessary • Completely portable Models available from 50 000 BTU/Hr to 600,000 BTU/Hr to serve almost any need indoors or outdoors Heat when and where it is needed WEAVER’S FARM SERVICE K#s, P.0.80x 117 Shippensburg, PA 17257 means you may not have an early-season indication of feed grain acreage for 1981 With these factors in mind, here’s a look at farmers’ primary marketing options: Selling now may be to your advantage if you do not own storage facilities and/or you need cash. Weigh this, and the good returns you can get on cash investments against the possiblity of higher prices later when more of the harvest has moved through marketing chan nels The unusqally strong futures delivery prices in relation to current casn prices may give you the opportunity to get more money from your crop than by selling for cash now You may be able, by hedging, to lock m a favorable price but, this generally rules out any further gams if prices should strengthen more. This is because gams or losses in settling a hedge contract are usually offset by similar change in the cash price when you sell your gram Since futures prices are so strong, check to see if your local elevator can offer you a forward contract on at tractive terms. Consider a loan on your 1980 crops if you need cash and want to be free to choose when you pay off the loan and sell or use your gram during the next nine months. Regular 9 month Gover nment loans are available through—your local ASCS office for 1980-crop gram that has not been under loan or in the reserve Interest rates are 11.5 percent Farmers have until May 31,1981 to get a loan on 1980 com and sorghum crops, and until March 31 to get a loan on 1980 barley and oat crops This may be a way to meet your cash needs with a conservative cost for in terest If you have 1980-crop com, barley, or wheat m the reserve, you can sign ajiew -reserve agreement to o6tam an interest-free loan at a higher loan rate. The national average reserve loan rate for com was raised from $2.25 per bushel to $2.40; for barley, from $1.83 to $1.95; and for wheat, from $3.00 to $3.30. These 1980-crop grams also can be entered in the reserve on the new terms if you have them under regular 9-month loans, or if they have not been redeemed from a previous Government loan. When gram is called from the farmer-owned reserve, you have 90 days from the date you are notified of the call to pay off your reserve loan or else forfeit your grain to the CCC In most cases, you’ll be ahead by paying off the loan DECEMBER SPECIALS 10% OFF IDE FOLLOWING JET ITEMS <' JSV-4H VISE Reg. $119.00 NOW $ lO7 lO 1 Ton HOIST lOLift F . S - 125 Reg. $119.00 5 ' AIR NOW SANDER $ | Qy to Reg- 569.50 now *62 55 MAKUA POWER TOOLS -10% OFF Tstock CIRCULAR 3/B''°DRluO UKV.ULAK 43008 V NOW § SAW JIGSAW $8460 I now $ 120°° now *I42 20 f BLUE BALL MACHINE WORKS Box 716, Rt. 322 You cannot re-enter gram that has been called from the reserve unless prices drop below the release level during the 90-day period following the call. In that "CONT ACT-US' For "MANURE PIT ELEVATORS/' AND PROPER PIT DESIGN TO USE AMPLE BEDDING WE ALSO BUILD ROTO BEATERS COMBINATION MOWER UNITS SILAGE CARTS ETC. SELECTION OF WISCONSIN AND ALLIS CHALMERS POWER UNITS IN STOCK SHEARING AND PRESS WORK, MACHINE WORK AND FABRICATING SMUCKER WELDING & MANUFACTURING « 2HOROCKVALEROAD.LANC.PA 17602 , PH 687-9198 ; jts-io TABLE SAW Reg. $559.00 NOW $ 503 1C a.-=r hH Blue Ball, PA 17506 717-354-4478 case, the gram that called from the reservi eligible to re-enter the ca contract under the s{ terms and conditions before LARGE NOW THRU DEC. 31 “fy JBS-14 BAND SAW With Motor Reg. $449.00 *4O4 10 OS-230 ORBITAL SANDER Reg. $79.50 NOW $ 71 55 NOW
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