B4—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, September 13,1980 Will LITITZ Using com for fuel instead of food or feed is bound to have some economic effect on production of the nation's top grain crop. If no more acreage is brought under cultivation the price of com would shoot through the roof because of competition between food and fuel. Yields can be increased, but most of any added production will have to come from putmg new land into com. Martin Abel, senior vice president of the Washington, D.C. firm of John Schmttker Associates, looked into the impact on com acreage in the U.S. from alternative levels of grain production. He points out there are several ways in which com acreage can be increased, especially if com and other gram prices remain relatively favorable in relation to production costs. Total area in major crops, including com, could con tinue to increase as a result of expanded irrigation and conversion of grasslands to row corps. Noting that total acreage planted to major crops in creased by nearly three million acres in the 70s, he said he expects a further increase of three to four million acres in the current decade. YOUR LOCAL PENNFIELD REPRESENTATIVE AT Ppennficldfecds 711 Rohrerstown Road, Lancaster, PA 17604 Local calls Lancaster 299-2561 • Red Lion 244-4511 In 717 and 215 areas dial toll free 800 -732-0467 ethanol production make or break com prices Crop acreage also would be increased in government programs to idle acreage in order to reduce crop production were abandoned. An increase in com prices relative to other crops also would cause com acreage to expand. Ethanol production would increase the supply of high protein distillers gram by products which substitute for soybean meal in animal feeding. Thus, Abel says, increased production of ethanol based on com reduces the demand for soybeans and releases acreage from soybean production that can be used to produce com. As a rough rule of thumb, Abel figures, production from one acre of com used to make ethanol will free up one half acre from soybean production. The domestic scene, though, is only a small comer of the total world grain picture. World consumption and production of total grams is expected to increase by 26 percent over the next decade. World gram trade likely will increase by 32 percent in the 80s. U.S. exports of wheat and feedgrains are expected to increase by 48 percent and 36 percent respectively. All of that adds to a strong worldwide demand for food and feed. Increasing world population, continued growth m real per capita mcome m most nations, and universally rising demand for animal and poultry products will generate that rapid increase. If the expected mcreases are not achieved, supplies of grain for non-food use would probably be substantial during the 80s. Of course, all of the predictions hinge on the continuation of the current crisis situation in the petroleum industry, in cluding a limited supply, spot shortages, increasing demand, and increasing prices. Abel looked at a few dif ferent potential ethanol production situations, projecting results for the year 1990. The first was for output of one billion gallons ethanol fuel per year from com. Present indications are there will be 500 million gallons of ethanol produced m this country by 1982. Although the Department of Energy had projected only 300 million gallons by 1983, it seems this estimate will be surpassed. So a billion gallons by 1990 is not at all unreal. To produce a billion b .. < thanol • n.uion bushels of com would be needed. That would require plantings of 90 million acres to com, compared to an average 80 million acres planted during the base period years 1978-80. Com yields would have to average about 120 bushels per acre in 1990 compared to a yield of 105 bushels during the base period. That would allow com production to meet fully the projected growth m domestic and export demand. Abel sees no increase in the real price of com over the Jecade of the 80s if a one billion gallon production level were reached nor does he see any market stress. Of course, com prices would rise at the same rate as the general inflation rate. If the nation were to produce two billion gallons of ethanol by 1990 there would be demand for 785 million bushels com for fuel. That would mean an eight percent jncrease m the real No Silo Too High They haven t built a silo th Badger Northland Blower No matter how high or how Badger Blower can fill em It s simply the least costly I smoothest running toughe you can buy The Badger Blower can opi 540-650 rpnrs It will take you give it, forage or gram little or no cracking) 1111 bl highest tonnage with the lo 1 And the special Badger ma* catches foreign material before it catches you Get together with your Badger Dealer today and get ready to fill your big silo m ——■ BN C 1 3 PIKEVILLE EQUIPMENT INC. GRUMELU’S FARM SERVICE ROY CHRISTMAN Mechanics Grove on l Qu *;^ l ' te . PA 17566 Hamburg. PA 19526 (215)987-6277 (717)786-7318 (215)562-7218 CECIL DAIRY SERVICE LLOYD E. KREIDER SHOW-EASE STALL CO. RDI Rt 274 RDI 523 Willow Rd l A Mi South Ruing Sun. MD 21911 Cochranville, PA 19330 Lancaster PA 17601 (301)658-6923 (215)932-4700 (717)299-2536 price of com by 1990 com pared to the base period. Since this jump would be on top of inflation increase there would be some com petition for the gram About 92.5 million acres, each yielding 120 bushels, would be necessary. There would be continued growth m domestic and export uses of com but the September^ On Insulation FIBERGLASS MSULATKW 1 RollSVaXlS” $lO (88.12 sq. ft.) I /«UU 1 r0113J4"x23” $i a a#i (135.12 sq.ft.) IOtUU We also blow insulation and handle spouting FETTERVILLE SALES RD2, East Earl, PA {Rt. 322 & Corner of Fetterville Rd.) 717-354-7561 ‘9er growth would be at slight! lower levels than in the oni billion gallon case. Major changes would b< seen if the nation were tc produce four billion gallon! of ethanol. Output of foui billion gallons woulc represent about five percent of the total gas we use. In the first place, there (Turn to Page B 5) alkto email ho ows ly ie
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