A24—Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, August 2,1980 Oversupply, low demand dampen dairy outlook LANCASTER Supplies of milk and dairy products are being maintained at well above year-ago levels, while commercial use of dairy products is still weak. As a result, CCC purchases are extremely large, com mercial stocks are ample, and farm milk prices remain under pressure. Although the heat wave is hurting output in several states, milk production will continue above year-ago levels for the rest of the year, leaving production up 2.5 to 3.5 percent from 1979. Farm milk prices will strengthen seasonally and may reach support. However, little or no in crease above support is expected. Thus, the farm all milk pnce will average 9 to 10 percent higher than the $l2 per hundredweight o! 1979, compared with a 13 percent increase last year Commercial use of milk and dairy products in April- May decreased a sharp five percent from a year ago. Sales of butter dropped substantially, while com mercial disappearance of American cheese was down over 1.5 per cent. An increase m unem ployment, a reduction in consumer purchasing power, and relatively low meat and poultry prices contributed to the decline in dairy product sales. Given the current outlook for a weak general economy, relatively large supplies of alternative protein sources, and higher retail dairy product prices, commercial use likely will not match the record 1979 total of 120.4 billion pounds. Milk production on a daily average basis for the first half of 1980 was 3.2 percent above 1979, a result of in creased milk cow numbers and more milk per cow. The increased numbers con tinued to reflect a favorable milk-feed price relationship and relatively low utility cow paces Increased output per cow resulted from heavier feeding of concentrates, also a function of favorable milk feed pace relationships. Milk production in June was up four percent from a year ago. Output was up for 25 of the 33 reporting States, including each of the five major producing States. Milk production gams will continue for the rest of 1980 and possibly into 1981. With the expectation of relatively favorable milk-feed pace relationships, causing milk cow numbers and output per cow to remain above a year ago, milk production will range two to four percent above a year ago in the third quarter and one to three percent higher in the fourth However, a continuation of hot, dry weather in south western and several other states would reduce milk production Already, there has been some impact on production m these states due to heat stress and declining forage conditions But, to date, there has been little impact on overall U S production, since the major dairy states have not been significantly affected Paces paid to farmers for milk have declined seasonally since January, reflecting the normal decline in fat content. However, the June all milk price at $12.50 per 100 pounds was up 8.7 percent from 1979. Manufacturing grade milk prices averaged $11.70 per hundredweight during June, 44 cents below support when adjusted for fat content, an improvement, however, from shortfalls in April and May of 58 cents and 55 cents, respectively. For the first half of 1980 cash receipts for milk were up 12.5 per cent from a year ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POWER FAILURES? WE HAVE A "SENSIBLY PRICED BRUSHLESS ALTERNATOR" FOR THE SENSIBLE FARMER. Model Selection Chart Model No. 15LR1 25LR1 35LR1 45LR1 85LR1 MARTIN MACHINERY WAYNE MARTIN RD 5, Danville, PA 17821 ERWIN W. ZIMMERMAN m &M BARN SALES CARL SENSENIG R t l RD. 1 West Garden Rd., Rt 6 Martmsburg, Pa 16662 Westfield. Pa. 16950 Bridgeton, NJ 08302 814-793-3954 814-334-5504 or 814-848-9818 609-696-8173 Seasonal price decline noted ago with larger marketings and higher prices con tributing to the gam. For all of 1980, cash receipts will likely exceed $16.5 billion, compared with $14.7 billion m 1979. The index of pnces paid by all fanners for production items increased 10.4 percent during first-half 1980 from a year ago. By mid-July, wholesale prices of American cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk still had not reached the equivalent of Commodity THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITIES. Watts Momentary Surge Watts 15,000 45,000 25,000 75,000 35,000 105,000 45,000 135,000 85,000 255,000 P.O. Box 35, Martindale, Pa. 17549 215-445-4800 or 267-7771 SALES REP. 717-672-9365 Credit Corporation purchase prices effective April 1. The June wholesale dairy product price index reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was up 10.3 per cent from last year. For second-half 1980, wholesale price increases from year-ago levels should abate, as wholesale dairy, product prices will likely not advance until commercial stocks are reduced or demand picks up. However, wholesale prices will likely Minimum Required HP Volts 120/240 120/240 120/240 120/240 130 120/240 DISTRIBUTOR: DEALERS: rise later this year after higher CCC purchase prices go mto effect October 1. The BLS retail dairy product index during May was II percent higher than a year ago, as both higher farm value and larger marketing spreads con tributed to higher dairy product prices. For all of 1980, retail dairy product prices will average between 9 and 11 percent above 1979. Heavy raw milk supplies during Apnl-May resulted in C.B. Amps Phase Wire 100 150 175 350 SALES REP. RAY GALLETTE RD 3, Box 106 Cochranton, PA 16314 814-425-2206 BV o ,ESEL 4 marlin rosenberry REFG. SHOP 702 1 Angle Rd. Star Route 655 Chambersburg, Pa. Belleville, Pa. 17004 71 7-375-4310 Drivers Ph. 717-483-6446 and eight percent, year-to year gam m the quantity of milk used in manufacturing. American cheese output was up nearly eight percent from last year, while production of other cheese types was up slightly. Butter manufacture increased by nearly a fifth Commercial stocks of dairy products on June 1 remained at high levels, although the amount above year-ago has lessened m recent months. iroximate Wt, Net Lbs. Ship Lbs. 425 490 475 500 580 600 670 730 795 860
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