—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, Octobtr 27,1979 120 Milk production began to increase in June following 9 consecutive months of production near year-earlier levels. July-August milk output posted a 1%-percent increase from the relatively weak 1978 levels. Increased output per cow, along with continued small declines in cow numbers, shaped the increase. Output per cow during June-August showed sub stantial increases over the relatively small changes of a year earlier. Nearly three fourths of the States reporting monthly posted higher production per cow than in August 1978. The major impacts on total production, however, took place in Wisconsin, where pasture and weather con ditions have reportedly been ideal for producing milk, and in California where cow numbers are increasing and output per cow is recovering from very weak levels last year. Monthly declines in milk cow numbers from a year earlier have shown little ' variability thus far in 1979 ranging only from 0.7 per cent to 0.9 percent despite higher cull cow prices. These rates compared with declines of from 1.0 percent to 1.4 percent in 1978, and were comparable to the declines of the 1975-77 period. Apparently the major adjustments (in culling and dispersals) resulting from the high cull cow prices were made last year. Another important factor in these smaller declines is probably the prospect for less favorable off-farm employment op portunities. Even though total production in August was up almost 2 percent, fewer than half of the reporting States produced more milk than a year ago. Regionally, VACUUM PUMPS CHOOSE THE RIGHT MODEL FOR YOUR DAIRY... MODEL NO. 78 5 HP produces 56 CFM ‘ 7Vz HP & 10 HP motors can be used for more CFM ASME vacuum standards rated = Cu. Ft./Mln. at Milking Vacuum MODEL NO. 76 2 HP produces 27 CFM - 3 HP produces 36 CFM We Sell and Install Parlors & Pipelines Your Complete Dealer J.B. ZIMMERMAN & SONS Here’s current outlook for dairy farmers the pattern was varied, ranging from gams of almost 6 percent in the Pacific region and about 3% percent in the Lake States to declines of over 1 percent in the Plains region and nearly 2 percent in the Delta region. Of the 5 major dairy States, Wisconsin, California, and New York had significantly larger output, while production in Minnesota and Pennsylvania was about the same. Production increases to continue Milk production this fall likely will continue to exceed the strengthening output of late 1978 but by a smaller amount than the increases of recent months. In early 1980, output probably will con tinue above the weakening levels of a year earlier. It now appears likely that first half 1980 milk production will be up about 1 percent. However, it is still early and weather developments or market forces could alter this outlook. Farm milk prices during the rest of 1979 and the first half of 1980 probably will average about a tenth higher than a year earlier. These prices, combined with higher feed prices than a year earlier would lead to continued favorable milk feed price relationships. Although increases in returns over concentrate costs will not be as great as those of a year earlier, these estimates assume somewhat higher concentrate feeding and a continuation of sub stantial increases in output per cow. Favorable feeding relationships in the coming months probably will con tinue to moderate declines in milk cow numbers. Also, as the general economy remains weak and unem ployment increases, off farm employment op- t*•'•’sNv'SCSfc* WEST OF BLUE BALL, PA. on RT. 23 | PHONE: (717) 354-4955 fc ■H||M|MNil4llMiMiMVP9MMlVvviVvrlMw4vvw/r7VVT#prvr4TrfT?^/r^^4?n4^s \ w !4v / / portumties likely will not be as good as in the recent past. Conversely, still-high slaughter cow' prices and somewhathigher feed prices likely will maintain pressures for declines in cow numbers. Feed prices higher Although down slightly from July levels, feed prices have remained well above year-earlier levels despite prospects for record large com and soybean harvests this fall. By early October, com prices at Chicago (No. 2 yellow) were quoted around $2.85 per bushel, up about 64 cents from a year earlier, while soybean meal at Decatur (44 percent protein) was about $195-$2OO per ton, up bout $3O. The price of 16-percent dairy ration averaged $l6O per ton in September, down $2 from the July peak but up $23 from a year ago. As of September 1, both the com and soybean crops were forecast at record levels this year. The com crop would be up 3 percent from last year’s record 7.1 billion bushels, reflecting prospects for a record-high average yield. The soybean harvest was forecast about 18 percent above last year’s 1.8 billion bushels. The size of both crops will depend on harvest conditions in coming weeks. Despite record harvests, strong world demand and increased domestic feed use are ex pected to keep ‘feed prices relatively high. On the roughage side, alfalfa bay output was forecast on August 1 to be down 3 percent from a year earlier. Increases of 34 percent were anticipated in California and Wisconsin but small declines were ex pected in Minnesota, Penn sylvania, and New York. Alfalfa hay prices in Sep tember were up about $l4 per ton from last year’s low level. Pasture conditions have been fairly good this season in major dairy areas. On September 1, Midwestern dairy areas generally had much better than average conditions while conditions in the Northeast were average or below average. Even with the higher feed prices, milk prices well above a year ago have resulted in still favorable milk-feed price relation ships (figure 7). In Sep tember, the milk-feed price ratio (based on the price of 16-percent dairy ration) stood at 1.54, down from 1.59 a year earlier. With the expected higher milk prices and feed prices, milk-feed price relationships probably will still be favorable through mid-1930. However, they likely will not be as favorable as in early 1979. Wholesale prices up Wholesale butter and cheese prices rose sharply in late July and during August as milk production was declining seasonally. Booth Insulation Company Residential • Agricultural • Commercial • Industrial 1167 Snapper Dam Road Landisviile, PA 17538 I -I Wholesale butter prices in August reached the CCC sell back level and about 3 million pounds were sold back to the industry. By late September, butter prices in Chicago and American cheese'prices both had risen about 10 cents a pound (figures). Dry product prices have also strengthened since QUARRYVILLE BLOCK CO. OPEN UNDER NEW OWNER, FRANK PLASTINO, JR. Open from 7-4 Mon. - Fri. Sat. 7:30 -12:00 Noon WILL DELIVER Also WE MAKE CHIMNEY BLOCK Business Ph: 717-786-2125 Home Ph: 717-786-1380 “THERMAL INSULATION SPECIALIST” SPRAY ON - BLOWN IN FOAMED IN PUCE cS 717-898-2760 spring. Nonfat dry milk prices increased about 2 cents through August and rose another 2 cents m September to about 82 5 cents per pound (high heat, Central States production area) still 1.5 cents less than the new support pur chase price. This price rise was partially in anticipation (Turn to Page 121) I 1
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