—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, April 14,1979 50 Beef CHICAGO, m. - Con sumers may face beef pnce increases m 1979 from 15 to 20 per cent over last year, reflecting a sharp reduction in beef supplies, Continental Bank agricultural specialists said recently. “Per-capita beef supplies will drop almost rune per cent m 1979 to around 81 pounds per person, or the lowest level since 1973,” said Terry L. Francl, agricultural economist in the ban K’s economic research division. However, Francl said that as a result of higher prices, N. Y. boy gets Brown Swiss BELOIT, Wis, - The 1978 Youth Achievement Winners have recently been an nounced hy the National Brown Swiss Cattle Breeders’ Association. The Youth Achievelnent Award was initiated in 1974 to honor one outstanding Brown Swiss youth in each of the eight director districts in the United States. This year’s winners were chosen from 21 entries by an anonymous committee. The applications were not identified by name or town or even animal’s names, thus were judged completely on the applicant’s merit. Some of the information requested on the application included the number of registered animals owned, classified and on official test, show participation and Brown Swiss and community activities and awards. They are also asked to tell of their duties on the farm and in fluence Brown Swiss has had on their lives. All of this year’s winners help with the worts on the farm whether it be milking, • Flats repaired or replaced promptly • Tube valves replaced l • Tires liquid-filled l • Tire sales & service for every truck, tractor, and auto on your farm 1 [cbzclters ■MB Fleet Center | (Independent Goodyear Dealer) 1062 Manheim Pike, Lancaster, PA 17604 prices to increase 15 to 20 per cent consumers probably will be buying less beef so that actual beef expenditures will be up only eight to 10 per cent over a year ago. So far this year, retail beef prices have risen ap proximately twice as fast as during the same period in 1978, he said. “The eight per cent decline in beef production witnessed thus far in 1979 reflects a sizable reduction in beef cattle inventories, which have dropped a total of 18 per cent since the 1975 peak,” Francl said. He added that the severe Winter weather in January and award i • , , feeding, cleanup'.'or field work. Also, ajl of the winners were4-H and/or FFA members and recipients of several awards and honors. The Youth winners also have all exhibited their Swiss at county, district, regional or national shows. In ■ addition to district winners, an overall National Youth Achievement Winner was chosen. District I came through with the National Winn'- „ith their entry, Ken Simpson, 17, of Port Jems, N.Y, , The owner of 16 Swiss, Ken has had, several winners in the show ring in addition to good production at home. He has won seyeral herd smanship and showmanship honors. This past year Ken has received several scholarship awards. He is planning to attend college and study dairy science. Ken helps with all the farm work on school vacations and milks nights and weekends during the school year. His parents are Mr. and Mrs. Willis Simpson, Jr. February also played a role in reducing the already lumted beef supplies. “Pork and poultiy production has been in creasing, and with high beef prices, supplies of these meats will expand further, offsetting the decline in beef production,” said Robert C. Vasko, vice president in the agribusiness division of Continental’s Commercial Banking Services Depart ment. Vasko said that although broiler and turkey production increased seven per cent and five per cent respectively last year, broiler prices were up 11 per cent, and turkey prices rose 24 per cent. “As a result, producers are expanding output just as rapidly as physical facilities will permit,” he said. Francl said that a government report released recently confirmed that hog producers are planning to expand, output at a rapis pace. “The present outlook is for annual pork production to rise 15 per cent in 1979 with the bulk of the increase coming in the second half of the year,” he said. “Total per-capita supplies of all red meats and poultry in 1979 will match or possibly exceed the 1978 level,” the economist said. “Consumers will be faced with the choice of either bidding up the price of the shrinking supplies of beef or switching to the more abundant pork and poultry products.” Outside the U.S., demand for meat is increasing with rising standards of living, Francl said. As a result, the demand for U.S. feed grams and soybeans continues to grow, he added. Although soybean exports will remain strong, with a 10 to 15 per cent increase in 1979 export volume, the outlook for com pnd wheat is less favorable,” Francl - said.' “U.S. com exports to Russia should be at about the same level as last year, but wheat exports may be down five to 10 per cent due to a record wheat crop around the world.” Despite near-record in comes, U.S. farmers may face financing difficulties later this year, Vasko said. . “Bank loan demand, especially among rural banks, is expected to be strong again in 1979,” he said. “At the same tune, high interest rates coupled with interest rate ceilings imposed by state usury laws may serve to divert funds to “Although it is highly other uses.” unlikely that the increase in “Although usury laws income will match the 40 per differ widely from state to cent jump recorded in 1978, state, many states have net farm income could rise celling rates in the eight to 11 io to 15 per cent on the per cent range,” Vasko said, strength of higher livestock “With six-month Treasury prices,” he said. “If this bills rates averaging about 9 happens, net farm income 1/2 per cent and Fed funds . would total about $3l billion, running above 10 per cent, ' or the second highest level there are instances in which pvpf rppnrHpH and’ nnlv the maximum dfetaUe. S|htly the S interest rate on farm loans is >, of $33 billion.” unattractive to lenders.” \ “Fortunately, exemptions to these usury ceilings are sometimes available if -farms are incorporated, if certain types of security can be pledged or if the loan is large,” he said. “Still, there are likely to be cases in which farm borrowers incur difficulty in obtaining adequate funds.” Problems associated with the availability of credit, however, may be offset to some degree by another mcrease in net farm mcome, Franclsaid.
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