Experts Warn Turkey Supply
Should Not Exceed '6B Level
Predicting a 5% increase in
1969 turkey production, the
Poultry Survey Committee
warned that 1969 turkey sup
plies (storage stock plus new
crop) must be in line with 1968
levels if returns to growers are
to be materially improved.
The Committee, composed of
Sve leading college economists
and sponsored by the American
Feed Manufacturers Association
and the National Turkey Federa
tion, also predicted that “Octo
ber-December nine city broiler
prices may average about 24
cents, 1 cent per pound higher
than a year earlier January-
June, 1969 prices may average
26 to 26,5 cents, 1 to 1 5 cents
below prices foi the first half
of 1968.
“U.S. farm egg prices for the
32 months beginning October 1
are expected to average about 5
cents a dozen above the pieced-
7
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ing 12 months. The hatch of egg
type chicks during the last half
of 1968 and the first half of 1969
is expected to bo about 11%
above a year earlier Egg prices
in late 1989 and during 1970
would be depressed by a hatch
ol this magnitude.”
Membeis of the committee
are Dr. Ralph L Baker, Ohio
State University, Dr. Olan D.
Foiker, Cornell University; Dr
William R Henry, North Caro
lina State University; Dr. Henry
Larzelere, Michigan State Uni
versity; and Dr. Jerome Siebert,
Univeisity of California Econo
mists from mdusliy and USDA
serve ex-officio.
The complete repoit of the
Poultry Survey ComnuHee is as
follows:
U S farm turkey prices dur
ing September-December 1968
will average around 22 cents,
v ‘ \ £
OF LANCASTER
MEMBER FEDERAL RESERVE SVSTEM/F.D.I.C,
TURKEYS
about 3 cents above the same pe
riod of 1967. Prices me expect
ed to itreng‘hcn in December
Turkey disappearance during
Septcmbcr-Docember 1968 will
likely be 10% under the same
period of the year earlier How
ever. the current low level of
activity in retail promotion and
featuring of turkeys provides a
basis for unccitainty in this es
timate
Cold storage stocks on Janu
ary 1, 1969 will be between 225
and 275 million pounds, about
the same level as on January 1,
1967, but 25 to 40% below the
slocks of January 1, 1968
Current indicators point to
ward a 5% increase in turkey
pioduction in 1969. Continued
high economic activity and us
ing consumer incomes aie ex
pected to provide strength to
the demand for turkey meat
dining the heavy marketing pe-
Lancaster Farminif. Snltirtiav. October 12.1968 -
riod of 1969. Total turkey sup
plies (January 1 storage slocks
plus new crop) during 1069 will
need to be in line with 1968 lev
els if returns to gioweis arc to
be materially improved.
Feed costs during the main
feeding period will likely be the
same to slightly lower in 1969
than in 1968.
BROILERS
Broiler prices (nine city aver
age) will average about 24 cents
per pound for the fourth quar
ter of 1968, about 1 cent above
a year earlier Fiist quarter
1969 prices will likely average
26 5 cents, about 1 cent undei
year earlier Second quai ter 1969
prices are expected to average
25 5 to 26 5 cents, about 1 to 2
cents below the same months of
1968.
These prices are based on
fodrth quaiter 1963 supplies at
levels 3% gieater than year eai
her, (list quaiter 1969 supplies
3 to 4% greater than year emh
er, and second quarter 1969 sup
plies 4 to 6% above the same
months of 1968
Compared to a year ago de
mand for broilers will be sup
ported by higher led meat and
turkey prices duung fourth
quarter 1968 While tuikey sup
plies are expected to be less
than year earlier levels, dm mg
the first half of 1969, red meat
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supplies will probably be gieat-
hVed costs of pi educing readv
to cook bioileis will piob.ibv
awrage one-hall cent per pom <1
loss Ilian yeai eailiei lor the s
month period beginning Octolnr
IP6B
EGGS
Egg pi ices foi the 12 monlns
beginning October 1, 1908. a.o
expected to aveiage about .1
cents a dO/ien above the pieced
inj.’ 12 months
During the Octobei-December
1968 quai ter, U S bum egg pur
er are expected to avciage 40-1
cents, about 10 cents above Oc
tober December 1967 In the
first quarter oi 1969, these puc
es will likelv avciage 38 M>
cents, about 8 cents above the
same quarter of a year eailicr.
Duung Aptil June 1969, puces
aie expected to ave> age 33 cen s
a do/eu about 4 cents above the
same months of 1968 The puces
of the July-S jntember qiuulir
(Continued on Page 22)
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