PAGE TEN
Babson Does Not
Believe Business
Bq ROGER
in net earnings. My feeling is
W. BABSON
that everyone will unite forces
mate 1953 average. This can
be done by expanding research,
But, I say something much more
important than the above, namely,
decline would probably not stop at
10%. 'Too many business concerns
and individuals are working on a
very narrow and slim margin. The
decline in employment, with result-
ing business losses which a 10%
decline in gross would cause, could
result in millions of families being
unable to pay ‘their bills and in-
stallment obligations. This could
send business down 10% ‘to 30%
more, with a corresponding decline
in the stock market, commodity
prices, and real estate.
latter case, the Eisenhower Admin-
istration would suffer as did the
‘Hoover Administration.
alternative, I have contacted the |
leading newspaper publishers as to
the attitude of ‘their respective
communities. Of these, over 970
have replied as follows: The people
and invest more; 643 are now con-
tent and in a strong position, but
are waiting until they see how 1954
develops. Due to the results of this
survey, 1 believe the chances are
ten to one that at least the first
half of 1954 will be fairly good.
Below are 25: definite forecasts
correct for the first six months of
1954. My forecast for the second
six months will {Appear in this’ paper
next June.
1. There will Ye no World War
in the first half of 1954.
2. The Dow -Jones Industrizl
30, 1954, than on January 1, 1954.
3. Taxes will be lowered by ex-
piring laws. :
4. The price of most commodi-
ties will be lower on June 30, 1954.
5. The Eisenhower “Honeymoon”
is fast ending end he will have a
hard time controlling Congress dur-
ing the next six months.
6. Retail sales can be kept up
by manufacturers and merchants
spending more money on advertis-
ing, selling, and developing new
products.
7. The U. S. population will con-
tinue its present growth and the
best prospects for sales in 1954 will
be the “teen-agers.”
8. Interest rates during the first
six months of 1954 should average
about as at present, except on the
renewal of low-rate loans.
9. Farm lands, except near cities,
will sell for less during the first
half of 1954, when farmers’ profits
will begin to decline. '
10. The Central and Southwest
will not suffer drought as in 1953.
11. There will be more fear of
World War III as years go on.
People will gradually move out of
land will be split up. A rise in the
price of such fringe farm land is
certain.
02. The U. S. Government will
give less money to the European
and other nations direct; but will
help them through the United Na-
tions.
~ M3. There will be fewer em-
ployed next June—the total take-
home-pay will be less—than last
June. This, however, may be a
good thing for the ‘morale of the
nation.
14. The present administration
will suffer much opposition to at-
tempts to reduce tariffs if profits
decline or unemployment increases.
15. The Administration and the
Labor Leaders will try %to revamp
the Taft-Hartley Bill during 1954;
but bad strikes are coming.
16. I am no weather prophet,
but experts expect a warmer winter
for the eastern portion of the U. S.
and a colder Florida.
17. Canada will continue to boom
during the first half of 1954, but
this may be a good time to take
profits on Canadian investments.
18. The above may also apply
to Southern California and its air-
plane and movie industries. . Both
may have reached their peaks for
the present.
19. Automobiles will be harder
to sell and easier to buy during
the first half of: 1954. Both the
automobile stocks and the cars will
be in less demand. There will be
more bargains in used cars, dis-
counts on new cars, especially cars
of the Pindeperdens Toznnisen:
ers,
20. Florida may have killing
frosts during the next few months.
This will cheer up California, Ari-
zona, and Texas.
21. The Korean situation will re-
main about as is—as the Chinaman
says, ‘much talkie, no shootie.”
22. There will be one or two
resignations from the Eisenhower
“husinessmen’s Cabinet,” replaced
by “politicians.” All is not going
too well. The President is not used
to being pressured by lobbies:
the business of “loaning umbrellas
gram you will enjoy!
both food and freezer.
juices . .
details.
be your best time to get out of debt
or at least reduce your debt. Re-
when the sun is shining, and calling
them in when it rains.” Moreover,
you cannot blame them because the
umbrellas really belong to the de-
positors, who also will want them
on rainy days! Operate so you can
clean up bank loans once during
1954.
24. The companies which will
prosper most are those which have
inaugurated effective labor-saving
programs. Most manufacturers are
learning that they cannot beat labor
through mere strikes. They are
winning only as they purchase new
labor-saving machinery, spend more
money on research and on well-
directed advertising.
25. There may be some further
inflation in 1954; but percentage-
wise to the total national output
it should not help the stock market.
What Will Eisenhower Do?
I have promised to answer the
following four questions:
1. Is Eisenhower to take the ad-
vice of Assistant President Adams,
representing certain Republican
leaders, and turn to the left? Or,
will he stick to his conservative
election platform?
Answer: He will stick to his elec-
tion platform.
2. To put the question in a more
practical way: Will 1954 be a year
of reform and economic adjustment
as promised by President Eisenhow-
er, or will he give the country more
inflation, and further play Santa
Claus to labor, farm, high ‘tariff
and other groups?
Answer: He is learning that “eco-
nomic reforms’ must be gradual.
3. Will he run the risk of losing
Congress in 1954 and the election
in 1956 for a matter of principle,
as did Hoover in 1932? Or, will he
succumb to the temptation of chang-
ing his policy with an attempt to
“save his party?”
Answer: He will run the rish of
chance to run again in 1956.
4. Is a ‘“middle-of-the-road” policy
practical ? Will it serve both groups,
or no group,
Donna Lynn Roberts
Mr. and Mrs. Robert G. Roberts,
Woodlawn Street, Dallas, announce
the birth of a six pound, three
ounce baby girl, Donna Lynn, at
Nesbitt Hospital, January 7. This
is their first child. Mrs. Roberts is
the former Rose Ann Sherinski.
Answer: Yes, it is practical for
working a gradual change, and it
should serve both groups.
SUSAN
HARRIS
HARDER-FREEZ 15 CU. FT.
FOOD FREEZER (MODEL HC15G)
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