Lancaster farming., November 29, 2003, Image 16

Ai^^ancfastert^ffilhg, 1 Satttritay; f Novbi t nbfer 29 , , r 2QO3 1
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Tuesday, November 25, 2003
Com
II 234 r 24012331 M 239 3/4 [ .39
[. 2391/2T 2451237 3/4 244 sli \? '
24 2; ’ 2481240 3/4'247 3/4 ’ "[,
Jj/8Fr244 1/4 [ 2501242 3/4 " 249 1/2 "[:
mm. ™z ■ j
242 3/41 ’5 . r '*4s
Kff 246 '" r 243 [
Soybeans
; «
Ogljlir] 735 f 747 j 730 3/4 746 1/2
SUp[ ~ 732 r 742 r 728; 742 [741 1
715' 722 r ”’712 721 |?2O
JjBBKT 7041/2 7081/4 701 708 |7o'
676 679; 674 678 6’
flfcjSfc#’ 634 ["" i r 634
i r
*<• »aravn ■ _ __ _ _
, ->74 ,vi/2b a
# zw
Soybean Meal
j 225.81227.21223.1 226.8
jf~ 224.2 [226.0 [222.2 f 225.7
| 224-0 224.9 221.2 224.5
|f 219.5(219.8 217.3 2i9.5 |
if ~ 215.1 [215.3 [212-7 214L8~f '
1 ~ 206.0 206.5 204-5 206.0 b a
*[ 194.2 f 194.5 192.3 193.0 j‘ >
|f 173.8 173.8 173.0 f 173.3 b a
Ir 170.5 (170.5 f 169.0 ’ 170.0 ]
! 169.5 169.5 169.0 169.0 b a “
- a %
J~ 632 r 630 1/2
573 [S7S l/2 r 571 1/2 574 "|574 1/4 ’
572 5741/21 572 5741/2b a]574 1/2[ +l4
,572 1/2 n 572 1/2 ,
[LQy . .^@lWS4si
Nov. 21,2003
MARKET LOOKS BETTER
• Barrels drop $0.07 per
pound for the week.
• Butter prices fluctuate.
• Milk supply tight.
• Cheese and butter invento
ries lower.
Once again the market pro
vided a mixed message this week.
Barrel cheese prices fell $0.07 per
pound during the week and but
247 244 1/21 246 ["“ 246
245 1/4 242 1/41 ""245T~244 3/4 ~
249 3/4 249[249 1/4 |249 1/4
” " [252 1/2 n ‘
246 j 2431 243 j 243 +2O
'^lBrgh;. |jL6w : Iqiosiog j
742 r 728; 742 [ [741 1/2;
722
ter prices rose, then quickly fell
back by Friday. At the same
time, the milk production and
cold storage reports were re
leased. Both suggest the milk
supply is well under control and
that inventories of butter and
cheese are dropping.
The milk production report in
dicates that milk production in
October for 20 select states was
down 0.2 percent from October
[239 1/2 f
(244 1/2
i 247 1/2
1249 3/4
252 1/2
721 J72OJL/2
708 [707 1/4 +6i
678 1/41 '~-2\
226.6 -+-2
225.6
224.6
219.7
21.4.8
206.3
193.0
173.4
169.8
169.1 f " -4
168.8
171.0
171.0 b | 171.5
+46
+5O
+5O,
+50 1
+34
+ 14
+l4
+ 14
+ 10
255
+B6,
746
+66
+2
634
+lO
-41
+5
-2
-lO
-11
-16
•+■2
-4
-5
Unch
ejpi
2002. The estimated U.S. milk
supply increased from 13,399
million pounds in September to
13,783 million pounds in October
2003.
On a daily average basis, the
October output is down 0.6 per
cent from the same month a year
before.
The more shocking number
was the estimated U.S. herd size.
Cow numbers for the U.S. fell
from 9.153 million head on Janu
ary to 9.022 million head by Oc
tober 2003, a drop of 131,000
head.
With protein and fat seasonal
ly trending higher in October,
plants received more components
in October relative to the month
before. However, if one assumes
that the protein and fat percent
ages are slightly depressed rela
tive to a year ago, than commodi
ty output for October 2003
(relative to October 2002) could
be even lower than die drop in
the milk supply.
In other words, I expect the
market will perceive a shortfall in
Lean Hogs
Date
11/24/03 *CASH*
11/25/03 Dec 03
11/25/03 Feb 04
11/25/03 Apr 04
11/25/03 May 04
11/25/03 Jun 04
11/25/03 Jul 04
11/25/03 Aug 04
11/25/03 Oct 04
11/25/03 Dec 04
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/24/03 7053 43437
Live Cattle
Date
1 l/24/03*CASH* 0 9815 9815 9815
11/25/03 Nov 0310025101001000510090
11/25/03 Dec 03 9610 9777 9525 9697
11/25/03 Jan 04 9317 9540 9317 9425
11/25/03 Feb 04 9100 9295 9020 9180
11/25/03 Apr 04 8245 8407 8190 8305
11/25/03 Jun 04 7545 7675 7495 7635
11/25/03 Aug 04 7400 7547 7360 7490
i 1/25/03 Oct 04 7615 7790 7615 7712
11/25/03 Dec 04 7675 7825 7650 7750
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/24/03 12219 113367
Pork Bellies
Date
11/24/03 *CASH* 0 780078007800+2500
11/25/03 Feb 04 8440 877584358645 +l7O
11/25/03 Mar 04 8620 870085258525 +lO5
11/25/03 May 04 8622 875086208725 +9B
11/25/03 Jul 04 8700 901087008960 +230
11/25/03 Aug 04 8900 890089008900 +215 0
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/24/03 662 2174
Oats
commodity production for Octo
ber 2003. USDA will release the
Dairy Products report on Dec. 4,
2003.
The Cold Storage report indi
cated that butter inventories
(commercial plus government)
fell 45 million pounds between
September and October 2003.
While that is impressive, the end
ing butter commercial inventory
of 150.8 million pounds for Octo
ber is still well above the 5-year
average of 107.2 million pounds.
The same, however, is not true
for American cheese inventories,
which fell 28 million pounds be
tween September and October.
Ending commercial inventories
for October were 479.1 million
pounds, which is just below the
5-year average of 489.5 million
pounds.
So what does this all mean?
Well, I’m getting more bullish
about the oudook for 2004. The
milk supply will continue to be
tight as long as the ban for live
~ . , ¥ . Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo , ume ope „
0 0
2923 11071
3300 22075
585 5764
33 872
168 2149
16 641
6 463
19 310
3 91
0465246524652 -65
4925 498048804917 -45
5290 538752755307 -48
5685 576556255695 -17
6020 605059856025 -37
6355 639263206382 unch
6115 617060926112 -18
5915 594058655925 -5
5210 523551805200 -10
5170 519051505185 -15
~ ii* ¥ v Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo lumeOpen_lnt
0 0
24 100
5160 29520
49 1302
4282 47879
2095 18369
378 10867
122 4303
103 939
6 87
~ . T T . n . Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Volumeope „ In ,
0 0
633 1837
16 v v i6B
12 109
1 51
(Turn to Pago A 34)
~ 36
1401
144 1/4
135
140
144 1/4 b
148 1/2
148 1/2 b
144 n
150 n ISO Unch
~~154nf ' 154 [ Unch
I
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 2.52 bu., 4.68 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.54 bu., 5.92 cwt.
Rarley, N 0.3 —1.91 bu., 4.08 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 —1.85 bu,, 5.76 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 7.18 bu., 11.99 cwt.
Ear Com 69.25 ton, 3.46 cwt
Alfalfa Hay —118.75 ton, 5.94 cwt
Mixed Hay —128.75 ton, 6.44 cwt.
Timothy Hay —134.25 ton, 6.71 cwt.
+l6
+22
+4
Unch