Al6 : Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 8, 2d03
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids; Thursday. November 6. 2003
Com
tylpnth Opening {High [Eo w Closing
(Big 2381 239 T 234 [ 2341/2 | 234 f
olMar ] 244 244 1/41 240 [ 240 1/2 r 240 [
04May 247 248 1/41243 1/4 [ 244 244 1/2 |
04Jufc[. 248 1/2 250 [ 246 247 1/2 247 j
OptSpJ 246 r 246 {243 1/2 [ 243 1/2
r 245 1/2 246; 242 2431/2 243 f '
~' 249 249 1/4 [248”1/2 248 \Ji\ jf
Pf T f 2531/2 n p
OSjul l 255 |2561/2 f 255 f 256 1/2 [' [
ffilt “ r r [245 3/4 n r ' T
Mbhlli Opening [High {Low Clbsihg - [
Soybeans
{Month (Opening (High |Low ; Closing
03Nov ] 770 771 1/2 757 j 757 7581/2
04Jan [ 778 779 7641 766 764 i
04Mar 771 773 7581/2! 761 7581/2
04\Iay 737 s 740 731 731 733 |
04Jul 724 729 720 7221/2 723 (
1 04 Aug 705 707 7001/2 701 |
04Sep 658! 660 653 1/4 6531/4
04Nov 596 j 598 1 590 j 594 5931/2
dsjah 600[ 600 j 5971 597
05Mar i { 589 nj
Month Opening!High {Low | Closing , f
Soybean Meal
iHighjLow [ _ Closing
OgflgC [ 248.3 249.3 j243.61~ 244.0 j
04j[anj 246.3 [247.2 [241.61
jOfolar! ' 243.0 245.5 239.01
!o'^
233.01234.5|229.0
228.0 j 230.01224.0 f
220.0 221.0'215.5[215.6 b 215.5 a I
206 0 206.0 205.0 [ 205.0 i )
185.0 180.0 j 180.0 l 181.0 !
182.0 178.01 178.5 179.0 j
180.0 1 180.0 178.5 j 178.0 b '178.5 a 1178.51
[ 177.5 b 178.0 a 177.8'
|o4Ksay
°.4Sep
cr4oct
O^Dec
OSJan
fosml^
185.0 f
181.d[
■*" * -— I —r “-r ■
Opening High
Month
Oct 31,2003
BLOCK CHEESE PRICES
DECLINE SHARPLY
• CME blocks fall to $1.4850/
pound.
• Butter holding firmly.
• CME futures are lower.
Block and barrel cheese prices
at the Chicago Mercantile Ex
change finally gave in to lower
prices. Block prices fell from
242.0 |
239.2 ,
229.2
I
224.8 f
Low |
Closing ISettlelNet Chg
$1.60 per pound on Monday, Oct.
27 to $1.4850 by week’s end. Bar
rels fell from $1.50 per pound on
Monday to $1.4575. There wasn’t
much in the way of actually
trades, but it is apparent that
there were more offers to sell
than bids to buy.
Much of this price decline was
expected. Cheese yields and milk
production has been recovering
‘ (Settle , |Net Chg
234 1/4 (
240 1/4
2441/41
i 247 1/4
1243 1/2 p
243 1/41
248 1/2
2531/2
256 1/2
[245 3/4
[Settle . |
[Net c Hg;
-74,
iSettle
J 757 3/4
765
(759 3/4
7321 Unch
1722 3/41 +22
701 ;
! 6531/4 1
|593 3/4
I" ' 597'
589
NetJQhgj
Settle ,
taps*
M
244.21
244.3
241~6 1241.8
239.1 [
239.0 |
229.1 S
229.0 |
224.0 |
224.41
215.5 i
205.01
180.51
178.8
and is more than adequate to
meet current “fresh” market
needs. As the fear of market
shortages disappeared, cheese
buyers held back in anticipation
of future price reductions. That
gets the ball rolling in a down
ward spiral. Tempering the rate
of price decline, however, is the
fact that buyers are in the market
in preparation for holiday needs.
USDA released their estimates
of January through August com
mercial disappearance. This is a
measure of consumption, or actu
al product eaten by consumers.
They are based on USDA esti
mates of production, imports,
change in inventory, government
removals, and exports. I have my
own estimates based on a new
Penn State dairy industry model.
Differences between my esti
mates and USDA estimates are
likely because of different mea
sures of imports.
USDA shows butter consump
tion through August was 0.7 per
cent behind a year ago. My num-
Lean Hogs
Date
11/05/03 *CASH*
11/06/03 Dec 03
11/06/03 Feb 04
11/06/03
11/06/03
11/06/03
11/06/03
11/06/03
11/06/03
11/06/03
-24
-16
-10
-10
-12
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/05/03 5977 42674
-10
” -4 1
Live Cattle
Date
-2'
1 l/05/03*CASH* 0104001040010400 +205
11/06/03 Nov 03 9990 9990 9990 9990+150
11/06/03 Dec 03 9560 9560 9560 9560 + 150
11/06/03 Jan 04 9310 9400 9300 9400 + 150
11/06/03 Feb 04 9095 9115 9075 9115+150
11/06/03 Apr 04 8280 8320 8247 8305 +9B
11/06/03 Jun 04 7605 7640 7580 7632+100
11/06/03 Aug 04 7445 7450 7400 7425 +2O
11/06/03 Oct 04 7500 7525 7480 7490 +4O
11/06/03 Dec 04 7640 7640 7640 7640 unch
[Net Chg
-80
-62
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/05/03 14614 111675
Pork Bellies
Date
+4O
+2O
+l6
11/05/03 *CASH* 0 780078007800 unch
11/06/03 Feb 04 8775 891587658880 +l4O
11/06/03 Mar 04 8800 880087608780 +l7O
11/06/03 May 04 8900 891089008900 +l3O
11/06/03 Jul 04 9000 915090009150 +5O
11/06/03 Aug 04 9050 905090509050 +l5O
+80!
+2O
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/05/03 317 1850
-18
-24
-24
Oats
-14
-16
MiA
142 1/41 144 140 1/4
kf “i47[- i 4 877;
1481/4 148 1/2 146 1/21 148 1/2 ;
_ T . ’ |lsl'l/2~a.
foiS^ep”!
-Ioi [o4i>ec [
-25
-15 j
""■-131
-51
__ |
Unch
[Month Opening jHigh (Low
~ -■ ■**LT.r r V*’
~ , w Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume ope „
0 0
4173 22056
1341 11910
0 492049204920
5330 536552805317
5857591558155892
6005 607059656062
6200622061606220
6500 653064506525
6207625062056242
6047 608060476080
5397 539753605395
5365536553655365
Apr 04
May 04
Jun 04
Jul 04
Aug 04
Oct 04
Dec 04
, ¥ . , , _ Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo lun,eOpen_lnt
0 0
144 603
6755 47102
167 1074
4380 31396
1817 16793
1123 10770
214 3589
14 346
0 2
~ ip l r ¥ Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|umeopen
0 0
314 1637
0 122
-2 50
0 32
1 8
Opening
(High
bers show it is more like -2.4
percent. American cheese con
sumption through August was es
timated by USDA to be 0.6 per
cent behind a year ago. My figure
is -1.6 percent. Finally, other
cheese, an estimate of Italian
cheese consumption, was estimat
ed by USDA to be 1.8 percent
ahead of a year ago. My estimate
is 1.4 percent, almost the same.
Both my estimates and that of
USDA suggest that consumption
of key dairy products for the first
eight months of this year have
not been very exciting. That may
explain why cash market prices
for cheese are now showing signs
of weakness. This is what econo
mists call “market fundamen
tals.”
Class 111 futures at the Chica
go Mercantile Exchange indicate
that November futures are down
from more than $l4 per CWT in
the prior month to $13.16 per
CWT. December futures are at
$11.90 per CWT. Expect both of
these to decline some in the
weeks ahead.
rrrr t-* t tit**.
+75
+25
+35
* ' J&V*
■! 1
t-bw v,
143
147 1 L_ 147I 47
i 148 1/2 [ Unch i
I
-21
144
150 n| ;
|_ 151 n| 1 151 j
i Closing ;Settle (Net Chg
Class 111 futures for the first
six months of 2004 averaged
$11.44 per CWT. For all of 2004
they averaged $11.94, still at a
pretty good level. Producers who
are interested in protecting milk
prices may want to consider look
ing at these prices since they are
close to 5-year averages.
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help fanners across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs in
their feeding operations for DHIA record sheets
or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last
week’s average costs of various ingredients as
compiled from regional reports across the state
of Pennsylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you will
need to adjust your figures up or down accord
ing to your location and the quality of your
crop.
Corn, No.2y 2.57 bu., 4.60 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.39 bu., 5.65 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 —1.94 bu., 4.14 cwt.
Oats, No 2 —1.84 bu., 5.73 cwt
Soybeans, No.l 5.36 bu., 8.94 cwt
Ear Com 65.41 ton, 3.27 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay —131.25 ton, 6.56 cwt.
Mixed Hay —131.25 ton, 6.56 cwt.
■tgv'Hmthr Hay *• 136.254mv6abcivtr r •
1431 “+42 j
+4 1
,151 1/21
Unch,
1501
Unclv
5020
769
1754
580
325
220
40