GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Wednesday, July 2, 2003
Com
07/01/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
*CASH*
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
SEP 04
DEC 04
MAR 05
DEC 05
Total
07/01/03
Soybeans
07/01/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
*CASH*
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
NOV 04
Total
07/01/03
Soybean Meal
*CASH*
JUL 03
AUG 03
07/01/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
Total
07/01/03
June 27,2003
OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LOCKING IN
MILK PRICES?
• CME futures expects a fall
peak of $l3 per CWT.
• Overall market improving.
• Risk management opportu
nities.
Ever since the Milk Production
report was released, the futures
High
2392
2294
2254
2260
2330
2382
2414
2390
2400
2460
2394
Open
2294
2246
2250
2314
2372
2410
2390
2386
2460
2394
Volume Open_lnt
97972 371901
High
6215
6320
6224
5920
5610
5632
5634
5634
5630
5520
Open
6250
6162
5884
5580
5590
5604
5600
5620
5510
Volume Open_lnt
60339 206282
Open High Low Last
19100 19100 19100
1920 1893 1913
1895 1866 1881
1896
1873
1820
] 690
1680
1685
1698
1700
1715
1677
1676
1635
1645
1805
1673
1659
1661
1690
1695
1710
1677
1676
1635
1645
Volume Open_lnt
32892 157033
markets have shown steady sup
port for Class 111 futures, partic
ularly for the fall months. As of
June 27, the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME) Class 111 futur
es peaked at $l3 per CWT for
September/October. So, what
should you do?
First, let’s review the market.
The May Milk Production report
from USD A showed May .milk
Last
2392
2286
2232
2236
2310
2366
2400
2390
2396
2460
2394
Low
2392
2284
2230
2234
2306
2366
2400
2390
2384
2460
2394
Last
6215
6286
6192
5874
5560
5590
5620
5604
5602
5512
Low
6215
6240
6162
5860
5554
5584
5594
5590
5600
5500
1798
1667
1652
1661
1680
1680
1695
1677
1676
1635
1645
1810
1677
1664
1671
1683
1685
1695
1677
1676
1635
1645
production for 20 select states
down 0.4 percent relative to a
year ago. Cow numbers declined
from the previous month and
yield per cow was down from the
same month a year ago.
The Cold Storage report indi
cated that while butter invento
ries in May were up 30 percent
from a year ago, cheese stocks
were even with a year ago. That
is good news for cheese.
So why is the fall Class 111 fu
tures at the CME showing
strength? Here are my guesses:
• Lower cow numbers and
yield per cow.
• Improving economy.
• Lower retail dairy prices.
• CWT plan.
There is no doubt that the
market is expecting less milk to
be produced in the coming
months. This will be mainly be
cause of lower cow numbers.
There were reports that rising
cull prices because of the ban on
-Canadian-, -beef -exports - -have
Lean Hogs
Date
07/01/03 *CASH*
07/02/03 Jul 03
07/02/03 Aug 03
07/02/03 Oct 03
07/02/03 Dec 03
07/02/03 Feb 04
07/02/03 Apr 04
07/02/03 May 04
07/02/03 Jun 04
07/02/03 Jul 04
Chge
+ 6
-6
-20
-16
-14
-12
-12
unch
unch
unch
-4
Composite Volume Openjnt
07/01/03 7344 40598
Live Cattle
Date
07/01/03 *CASH* 0 745074507450 +59
07/02/03 Jul 03 7230 729072207277 +57
07/02/03 Aug 03 7017 706569857060 +6B
07/02/03 Sep 03 7085 709570557095 +2O
07/02/03 Oct 03 7125 716070957157 +5O
07/02/03 Dec 03 7365 740073507392 +37
07/02/03 Feb 04 7505 754075007537 +25
07/02/03 Apr 04 7530 757075207570 +2O
07/02/03 Jun 04 6955 698069506975 +2B
07/02/03 Aug 04 6875 687568756875 -125
Chge
+ 95
+ 24
+ 10
-22
-30
-12
-10
-6
-16
+ 22
Composite Volume Open_lnt
07/01/03 13889 104697
Pork Bellies
Date
07/01/03*C ASH* 0103001030010300+300
07/02/03 Jul 03, 9510 95,95 9470 9505 +l5
07/02/03 Aug 03 9400 9452 9295 9307 -48
07/02/03 Feb 04 8297 8300 8200 8250 -10
07/02/03 Mar 04 8290 8290 8290 8290 unch
07/02/03 May 04 8410 8410 8410 8410 unch
Chge
-100
+ 15
+ 7
Composite Volume Open_lnt
07/01/03 1635 3764
Oats
+ 1
unch
+ 3
-3
-6
-7
-9
-5
-12
-7
07/01/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
07/02/03
Total
07/01/03
~ Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume o pe „_lnl
0 0
1656 5315
4329 18156
1051 9551
211 5242
47 1112
28 786
8 159
12 251
1 26
0 585658565856 -57
6420 643763956415 +8
6510 651064306435 +5
5742 576057055722 +5
5500 553554705472 -23
5780 581557705790 unch
5930 593059105915 +5
6170 618061506167 -13
6320 634063006325 +l5
6225 622562256225 -22
u . . i i .r-L Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge VoU|me ()pcn lnt
0 0
151 822
9423 49600
10 148
2517 23633
1322 20731
321 5896
105 3079
39 788
0 0
~ Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge ... „ . .
VolumeOpen_lnt
0 0
712 1966
912 1679
8 113
3 4
0 2
Open
*CASH*
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
1556
1360
1350
1404
1440
1470
Volume Open_lnt
1490 5529
sparked greater culling. But pro
ducers I’ve talked with said those
cull prices have since come down.
But lower profitability in the
dairy industry will result in lower
cow numbers for the rest of the
year. And there is talk that poor
crop/forage conditions in much of
the U.S. could adversely affect
yield per cow.
Lower retail prices for dairy
products and a slight improve
ment in the U.S. economy could
be putting a little more muscle
into the futures market. Clearly,
stronger consumer demand is
needed to revive milk prices.
Commercial disappearance of
most dairy products through
April does not look particularly
good.
What is not known is what im
pact The National Milk Produc
ers Federation (NMPF) CWT
plan (Cooperatives Working To
gether) is having on market out-
(Turn to Page A3l)
High
1586
1582
1366
1364
1404
1440
1470
Low
1586
1554
1314
1320
1404
1440
1470
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Haildy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their, feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No,2y 2,96 bu., 5.29 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.15 bu., 5.25 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 1.99 bu., 4.26 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 2.02 bu., 6.29 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 5.97 bu., 9.97 cwt.
Ear Corn 89.33 ton, 4.47 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 123.75 ton, 6.19 cwt.
Mixed Hay 117.50 ton, 5.88 cwt.
Timothy Hay 157.50 ton, 7.88 cwt.
Chge
+ 36
-2
-6
-12
+ 4
unch
unch
Last
1586
1554
1340
1342
1404
1440
1470