Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, May 24, 2003
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG.
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, May 22, 2003
Com
05/21/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
*CASH*
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
MAY
JUL
SEP
DEC
DEC
Total
05/21/03
Soybeans
05/20/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
* CASH*
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
JAN
MAR
MAY
JUL
NOV
Total
05/20/03
Soybean Meal
05/20/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
05/21/03
*CASH*
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
OCT 03
DEC 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
AUG 04
SEP 04
OCT 04
DEC 04
Total
05/20/03
May 16,2003
USDA RELEASES
UPDATED 2003 OUTLOOK
• Milk production to increase 1
percent.
• Consumption up 2 percent.
• Class 111 and IV to average
SlO/CWT.
USDA just released their updat
ed market outlook for the balance
of 2003, as well as for 2004. Since
no one at this point cares about
2004. let’s instead focus on what
High
2554
2470
2446
2450
2506
Open
2444
2430
2440
2496
2534
2564
2460
2470
2380
2524
2554
2460
2454
2380
Volume Openlnt
56771 415257
High
6300
5464
6434
6124
5794
Open
6420
63 8 0
6050
5700
5820
5844
5790
5800
5480
5724
5764
5774
5780
5450
Volume Qpen_lnt
81256 234615
Open High
19750
1981
1954
1895
1765
1746
1748
1765
1770
1775
1745
1745
1655
1660
1965
1933
1868
1738
1715
1718
1742
1747
1775
1745
1745
1655
1660
Volume Qpen_lnt
34973 161625
lies ahead for this year.
Basically, USDA is expecting
milk prices to remain fairly low for
the remainder of the year, despite
market expectations (Chicago Mer
cantile Exchange futures) that
prices will improve more robustly
by the fall.
The latest forecast is provided in
the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry
Outlook report produced by the
Economic Research Service. These
reports have been traditionally very
Last
2554
2436
2422
2430
2484
Low
2554
2430
2414
2424
2480
2522
2542
2460
2466
2380
2520
2536
2460
2454
2380
Last
6300
6400
6382
6074
5750
Low
6300
6374
6350
6040
5696
5786
5824
5790
5800
5422
5724
5764
5714
5730
5420
Last
19750
Low
19750
1940
1921
1858
1733
1711
1716
1735
1745
1755
1745
1740
1655
1660
1952
1936
1871
1749
1730
1732
1752
1761
1774
1745
1740
1655
1660
pessimistic on market price out
look and always predict more milk
production than actually occurs.
This time it is different.
USDA economists are forecast
ing that the milk supply will grow
just under one percent in 2003
from year-ago levels. This forecast
simply reflects existing data that
show milk producers have been
slow to adjust to very low milk
prices. Most producers that have
expanded in 2002 have already
populated their bams by now. So
USDA economists expect a gradual
reduction in the rate of growth in
the U.S. milk supply. I would con
cur that a forecast of one percent
growth in the milk supply for this
year is reasonable. ing both prices to be in the range of
Next, USDA expects consump- $9.70-$10.30 per CWT for a mean
tion of milk and dairy products (on of about $lO. This of course is very
a milkfat and solids-not-fat basis) pessimistic. It suggests that when
to grow about two percent this it’s all said and done, milk prices
year. They report that “dairy de- this year will have been worse than
mand fails to catch fire.” Still, a last year!
two percent growth rate is fairly Unfortunately, I would have to
decent, especially considering de- concur with USDA on this fore
mand grew just 0.5 percent last cast. I expect Class 111 prices will
year to 170.5 billion pounds on a be a little higher that USDA’s fore
milk-equivalent, milkfat basis. My cast, rising closer to $ll per CWT
guess is that the USDA economists for Class 111 by the fall. Class IV
Lean Hogs
Date
05/21/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
Chge
-12
-16
-14
-20
-22
-12
Composite Volume Openjnt
05/21/03 8242 46889
-16
unch
unch
unch
Live Cattle
Date
05/21/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
05/22/03
Chge
unch
-26
-14
+ 14
+ 32
+4O
+ 46
+ 52
+ 50
+ 22
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/21/03 33903 106979
Pork Bellies n . „
, w o u- i i i Previous Previous
Date Open High Low Last Cnee ~ , „ , A
r H ** Volume Open_lnt
0 0
16 110
409 2949
116 307
0 62
0 1
05/21/03 -CASH* 0 960096009600 unch
05/22/03 May 03 9825 983097709830 +5O
05/22/03 Jul 03 9310 938792809365 +65
05/22/03 Aug 03 8950 905089509010 +63
05/22/03 Feb 04 7850 785078507850 unch
05/22/03 Mar 04 7780 778077807780 unch
Chge
+ 350
-11
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/21/03 542 3429
Oats
05/21/03 *CASH*
05/22/03 JUL 03
05/22/03 SEP 03
05/22/03 DEC 03
05/22/03 MAR 04
05/22/03 MAY 04
Total
05/21/03
~ TT . . ¥ ¥ Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Cnge ... ~ . .
1 Volume Open_lnt
0 0
4363 17549
2754 13642
668 7167
316 4311
128 3139
13 596
0 390
0 17
0 78
0612261226122
6452 649564256440
6505 655064706515
6487 654064706517
5490 552054505485
5357 537053305340
5720573556855700
5950596058855897
6155 616061406155
6400 640063806397
'CASH*
Jun 03
Jul 03
Aug 03
Oct 03
Dec 03
Feb 04
Apr 04
May 04
Jun 04
~ XJ. . . I Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume 0p(!n Int
0 0
706 658
16527 35805
0 798779877987
7600 765075957630
7300 734072877315
'•'CASH*
May 03
Jim 03
7000 702069656972
6880 690568376850
6970 698569426972
7260 727572307260
7400 743273807405
7505 751274807512
6950 696569506950
Jul 03
Aug 03
Oct 03
Dec 03
Feb 04
Apr 04
Jun 04
Open
1554
1486
1464
1500
1510
Volume Qpen_lnt
404 5913
in 2003 will translate into low retail
prices. Those lower retail prices for
milk, butter, cheese, etc., should
translate into stronger sales.
The problem with this expecta
tion, however, is that retail prices
for milk and dairy products have
not dropped as much as farm gate
milk prices have, and high U.S. un
employment will continue to cur
tail dairy consumption. My expec
tation is that consumption of dairy
products will grow less than one
percent this year. Thus stocks will
likely be higher than what USDA
is expecting.
That brings us to USDA’s out
look for Class 111 and IV prices.
The bottom line is they are expect-
+B6
+5O
+25
-8
-32
-3
+lO
+5
-3
-20
High
1760
1554
1486
1464
1500
1510
Low
1760
1470
1422
1410
1480
1510
USDA is hinting that there may be
another “tilt” in the butter/powder
price.
Generally speaking, unless the
milk supply adjusts and demand
picks up, milk prices will remain at
fairly low levels, increasing by only
sl-$2 per CWT between now and
the fall.
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust vour figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 3.0 bu., 5.27 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.11 bu., 5.19 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 2.13 bu., 4.55 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 2.09 bu., 6.52 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 6.03 bu., 10.07 cwt.
Ear Com 90.53 ton, 4.53 cwt.
Alfalfa Hav 156.75 ton, 7.84 cwt.
Mixed Hay 145.00 ton, 7.25 cwt.
346
34867
19110
10930
3864
1307
92
39
9197
2926
3278
1065
140
25
Chge
-20
-74
-40
-62
-40
-40
Last
1760
1484
1450
1410
1480
1510