Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 29, 2003
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, March 27, 2003
Com
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
*CASH *
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/2^/03
03727/03
MAR
MAY
JUL
SEP
DEC
DEC
Total
03/26/03
Soybeans
03/27/03
03 1 27 /03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03 /27 'O3
03 /2 7 /03
03 ! 21 7 03
* CASH *
MAY 0 3
JUL 0 3
AUG 0 3
SEP 0 3
NOV 0 3
JAN 0 4
03/27/03
03 /27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
MAR
MAY
JUL
NOV
Total
03/26/03
Soybean Meal
03/27/03
03/21/ 03
03 /2 7/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27 / 03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
*CASH*
MAY
JUT,
AUG
SEP
OCT
DEC
Total
03/26/03
March 21,2003
MILK PRODUCTION
CONTINUES TO EXPAND
• February milk up 1.7 percent.
• California alone added 60,000
head.
• Other states losing cows.
This was the month that growth
in cow numbers would level off. Or
so I thought. The February milk
production report indicated that
the number of milk cows for 20
Open
2286
2286
2304
2316
2376
2416
2430
2410
2374
2392
Volume Open_lnt
32170 452581
Open
5 7 1 4
5690
5584
5344
5140
5184
5202
5250
5254
5040
04
04
04
04
Volume Open^lnt
64107 216445
Open High
17450
1702 1742
1688 1723
1647 1675
1590 1615
1525 1540
1519 1535
1523 1538
1538 1555
1550 1560
1560 1575
1560 1570
1560 1570
1530 1530
1520 1520
Volume Open_lnt
28498 147497
major states grew 3,000 head from
January or by 66,000 head from a
year ago.
The markets are screaming for
less milk, not more, and that’s why
milk prices continue to fall. The fu
ture markets at the Chicago Mer
cantile Exchange now indicate that
the March 2003 Class 111 price will
fall to $9.10 per CWT, well below
the support price of $9.80 per
CWT._ Class Ilf prices are not ex-
High
2406
2292
2296
2310
2326
Low
2406
2280
2286
2300
2316
2376
2414
2430
2404
2374
2392
2384
2426
2436
2410
2380
2392
High
5625
5814
5784
5660
5410
5190
5220
Low
5 62 5
5706
5684
5554
5330
5130
5170
5202
5250
5254
5040
5250
5250
5254
5040
Low
17450
1702
1688
1645
1588
1517
1513
1517
1531
1545
1558
1555
1550
1525
1520
Lean Hogs
Date
03/26/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
Chge
+ 6
+ 6
Last
2406
2286
2292
2304
2322
+ 6
+ 10
+ 10
+ 6
+ 6
+ 6
2382
2424
2434
2404
2380
2392
+ 4
unch
unch
Chge
Last
5625
5802
5774
5654
5406
5186
5220
unch
+ 112
+ 106
+ 104
+ 92
+ 64
+ 62
+ 64
+ 64
+ 64
+ 4
5250
5250
5254
5040
Last
17450
1737
1717
1674
1613
1539
1533
1535
1550
1560
1570
1565
1565
1530
1520
pected to reach above $lO until
June.
In case you haven’t gotten the
message yet, dairy farmers are pro
ducing too much milk from too
many cows. The market simply
cannot handle the excess produc
tion, especially in a soft economy.
That is why prices have fallen to
such low levels.
To illustrate the imbalance in the
market, let’s review cow numbers
over the past few years. During the
period February 2001-2003, the
number of dairy cows for 20 major
dairy states grew 46,000 head. Cow
numbers normally decline month
after month. Cow numbers during
this period fell in states such as
Wisconsin (-45,000), Minnesota (-
40,000), and Texas (-27,000). But
cow numbers also grew in states
such as New Mexico ( 5 2,000),
Idaho ('6,000) and Arizona
(■0,000).
But none of this compares to the
grow in California up a whop
ping 118,000 cows! And cow num
bers in California are poised to
grow even more in the months
ahead.
'CASH -
Apr 03
May 03
Jim 03
Jul 03
Aug 03
Oct 03
Dec 03
Feb 04
Apr 04
Composite Volume Openjhit
03/26/03 12866 40617
Live Cattle
Date
CASH
Apr 03
May 03
Jim 03
Jul 03
Aug 03
Oct 03
Dec 03
Feb 04
Apr 04
03/26/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
Composite Volume Open_lnt
03/26/03 17219 100019
Pork Bellies Previous Previous
Date Open High Lo* Last Chge Vo|uine Gpen lnt
0 0
03/26/03 CASH-
May 03 8730 884087258792 -40
Jul 03 8750 885587508835 -5
Aug 03 8680 868086808680 -20
Feb 04 8000 800080008000 +4O
Mar 04 7955 795579557955 unch
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
Composite Volume Open_lnt
03/26/03
Oats
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
03/27/03
*CASH*
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
Total
03/26/03
Perhaps a better question to ask
is why are cow numbers growing
month after month when the mar
ket is calling for a cooling-off peri
od? Is it booming real estate values
in California? Is the support price
of $9.80 per CWT for manufactur
ing milk too high? Or are we still
experiencing residual growth in
cow numbers from profits earned
from 2001?
Cheese is moving into the
USDA’s dairy price support pro
gram. The Commodity Credit Cor
poration has confirmed that 1.66
million pounds of Central process
cheese, 690.6 thousand pounds of
Western barrel cheese, and 342
thousand pounds of Western block
cheese have been purchased by the
government for the week March
17-21.
The government is purchasing
surplus butter, cheese, and nonfat
dry milk. For the week ending
March 7, 2003, there is 1.086 billion
pounds of nonfat dry milk in
USDA warehouses. That is more
powder than what we normally
consume in the entire U.S. during
12 months.
, i , Previous Previous
Open H.gh Low Last t hge Vo , ume open lnt
0 0
4996 8881
223 2483
6047 18359
683 4059
548 3950
176 1783
66 734
122 326
5 41
0 466946694669
4892 500248924997
5560 562555255592
5775 579057255757
5747 581057305757
5780 581757505765
5140 5195 51405155
5177 522551775192
5602 562255955622
5795 581757955817
„ ..... , Previous Previous
Open H.gh Low Last Chge Vo|ume open
0 0
6569 32041
99 1731
7290 38729
0 29
1558 12176
1317 9179
301 4156
78 1846
7 131
0 780078007800 +l5O
7545 7575 75177545 -7
7305 732072707270 -42
7000 702569726982 -23
6770 677067706770 unch
6740 676067206725 -27
6890 691068726887 -8
7045 707770407050 -7
7195 720071807180 unch
7270 727572707275 unch
0 850085008500 -400
3004
809
Open
1752
1596
1474
1474
1550
Volume Open_lnt
1065 6068
-123
+45
+ 12
-18
+r>
-7
+ 10
+ 17
+7
+2O
High
1972
1802
1624
1484
1480
1550
Low
1972
1750
1590
1474
1470
1550
Butter is showing some promise.
Despite strong inventory levels,
butter is above support levels and
averaged $1.0958 per pound this
week in Chicago. Demand may be
improving for both butter and
Class II uses in response to the up
coming Easter Holidays. And
USDA reports that butter imports
(both in-quota and above quota)
are below year-ago levels.
Average Farm Feed Costs
for Handy Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHlA're
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Corn, No.2y 2.96 bu., 5.29 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.17 bu, 5.29 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 2.25 bu., 4.80 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 2.10 bu., 6.54 cwt.
Soybeans, No 1 5.68 bu., 9.48 cwt.
Ear Corn 89 58 ton, 4.48 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 165.00 ton, 8.25 cwt.
Mixed Hay 149.25 ton, 7.46 cwt.
Timothy Hay 153.75 ton, 7.69 cwt.
2204
771
26
717
92
Chge
+ 46
+ 46
+ 14
-2
-10
unch
Last
1972
1796
1604
1474
1470
1550