Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 15, 2003
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, February 13, 2003
Com
02/12/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
MAY 04
02/13/03
02/13/03
JUL
DEC
Total
02/12/03
Soybeans
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
NOV 04
02/12/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
Total
02/12/03
Soybean Meal
02/12/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
Total
02/12/03
Feb. 7,2003
BUTTER FALLS
BELOW SUPPORT
•Grade AA butter fell below
$1.05/lb.
•Butter, cheese, & nonfat now
purchased by USDA
•CME futures
daily.
Its been another week in which
the government is purchasing
butter, cheese and nonfat <Jry
milkall three dairy productsfor
Open
2392
2432
2446
2432
2436
2484
2514
2532
2396
Volume Openlnt
77638 472861
Open
5640
5630
5610
5544
5450
5274
5314
5350
5000
Volume Open_lnt
93979 211755
Open High Low Last
17650 17650 17650
1780 1742 1776
1760 1725 1758
1748
1737
1718
1680
1642
1590
1575
1570
1587
1602
1592
1625
1625
1627
Volume Qpen_lnt
42312 169120
the dairy price support program.
In fact, USDA for the week end
ing February 7th, purchased 22.7
million pounds of nonfat dry
milk from the West, Central and
Eastern markets. It seems every
one is producing surplus nonfat
dry milk.
Grade AA cash butter prices at
the Chicago Mercantile Ex
change fell below the support
price of $1.05 per pound this
week. USDA reports that this-is
weakening
High
2462
2406
2436
2454
2442
2446
2494
2520
Low
2462
2392
2422
2442
2432
2434
2484
2514
2532
2396
2532
2400
High
5590
5740
5730
5694
5600
5454
5346
5350
5350
5000
Low
5590
5640
5630
5610
5540
5420
5270
5304
5350
5000
1709
1675
1628
1582
1566
1568
1587
1602
1592
1625
1625
1627
1732
1693
1652
1600
1588
1585
1587
1602
1592
1625
1625
1627
Lean Hogs
Date
02/12/03 *CASH*
02/13/03 Feb 03
02/13/03 Apr 03
02/13/03 May 03
02/13/03 Jun 03
02/13/03 Jul 03
02/13/03 Aug 03
02/13/03 Oct 03
02/13/03 Dec 03
02/13/03 Feb 04
Chge
-22
+4
+2
+ 6
+2
unch
+2
+2
Last
2462
2396
2430
2446
2434
2440
2490
2516
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/12/03 10161 40852
+2
unch
2532
2400
Live Cattle
Date
02/12/03 *CASH* 0 780378037803 -247 0
02/13/03 Feb 03 7840 789577927845 -97 4607
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
Chge
-75
+ 84
+ 90
+ 82
+ 70
+ 60
+ 50
+4O
+ 60
+l6
Last
5590
5716
5714
5690
5600
5450
5304
5320
5350
5000
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/12/03 21569' 108334
Pork Bellies
Date
02/12/03 *CASH* 0 780078007800 +4OO
02/13/03 Feb 03 8360 851083608495 +l2O
02/13/03 Mar 03 8350 854083508505 +133
02/13/03 May 03 8445 8655 8445 8615 +135
02/13/03 Jul 03 8560 8695 8555 8695 +lO5
02/13/03 Aug 03 8405 8405 8405 8405 +95
Chge
unch
+ 32
+ 29
1729
1691
1651
1594
1582
1580
1587
1602
1592
1625
1625
1627
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/12/03
Oats
02/12/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
02/13/03
+ 7
+ 10
+ 10
+ 12
Total
02/12/03
the first time this has happened
since December 1993. Butter in
ventories are double what they
were a year ago, and churning is
still strong. In addition, we won’t
see any boost in demand until the
Easter Holidays.
The cheese market isn’t doing
much better. Block cheese is trad
ing at just a penny or two above
support levels. Year-end invento
ries of cheese are fairly strong.
And production for the year 2002
was well above year-ago levels.
While the milk supply grew 2.7
percent in 2002, total production
of cheese was at 8.4 billion
pounds, up 3.8 percent. Surplus
milk and dairy products went
into cheese production.
The futures market at the Chi
cago Mercantile Exchange con
tinues to weaken.
This was particularly obvious
after the Commerce Department
announced a negative result for
the fourth quarter growth rate for
the U.S. economy (GDP). The
2003 monthly average CME
Class 111 futures price as of De
cember 2, 2002 stood at $11.99.
In other-words,-airy producers-in
n ml. i tnu Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume open Int
0 0
2484 4545
5811 18436
178 2968
798 7819
507 3072
285 2474
64 1049
32 431
2 57
0471847184718
4885 494748854905
5265 530551505295
5690 582056605810
6130 618060556177
5880 597558655942
5725 578057105772
5020 506050005032
4930 496549304952
5370 539053675367
u- UI I Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo , ume open lnt
Apr 03 7510 759075107577
Jun 03 6945 694568406907
Aug 03 6635 664065406630
Oct 03 6910 692568556917
Dec 03 7000 704769757042
Feb 04 7200 724271857240
~ tw« i_ w . Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|umeopen Int
0 0
214 508
381 115$
101 677
5 304
0 28
2675
701
Open
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
2072
1940
1840
1706
1610
1660
Volume Open_lnt
1920 6711
early December of last year could
have locked in all of their milk
production for 2003 at a Class 111
price that was very close to the
five-year average. As of February
6, 2003, the 12-month average
CME price (reflecting the actual
January Class 111 price) deterio
rated to $10.84 per cwt. In other
words, the market eroded 2003
milk prices by $1.14 per cwt be
tween now and then.
At this point I would recom
mend holding off on any efforts
to forward price milk, particular
ly for early spring and late fall.
The market is looking for any
reason to increase milk prices,
but simply can’t find any. That’s
why the Class 111 prices for the
period January May 2003 have
become so soft.
We are clearly at the bottom of
the price cycle. Can Fall 2003
Class 111 milk prices decline even
more from current market expec
tations? Of course they can. But
I’m guessing that there is a great
er than even chance that fallmilk
prices will improve. The growth
in the milk supply cannot contin
ue at- its current-pace. And -the
-83
-70
-25
-20
-3
+l3
High
2300
2126
1982
1866
1706
1610
1660
Low
2300
2070
1934
1840
1706
1610
1660
economy may stabilize and im
prove after the conflict with Iraq
is resolved one way or another.
Both should help improve dairy
market prices.
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 2.96 bu., 5.30 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.25 bu., 5.43 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 2.15 bu., 4.59 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 2.05 bu., 6.38 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 5.63 bu., 9.41 cwt.
Ear Com 99.58 ton, 4.98 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 131.75 ton, 6.59 cwt.
Mixed Hay 144.75 ton, 7.24 cwt.
Timothy Hay 144.25 ton, 7.21 cwt.
0
11354
60170
20635
8419
4765
2354
637
10270
4508
1191
567
366
60
Chge
-52
+ 12
+ 10
+ 12
+ 6
unch
unch
Last
2300
2106
1974
1866
1706
1610
1660