Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 15, 2003 GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, February 13, 2003 Com 02/12/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 *CASH* MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 MAR 04 MAY 04 02/13/03 02/13/03 JUL DEC Total 02/12/03 Soybeans *CASH* MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 AUG 03 SEP 03 NOV 03 JAN 04 MAR 04 NOV 04 02/12/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 Total 02/12/03 Soybean Meal 02/12/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 *CASH* MAR 03 MAY 03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 Total 02/12/03 Feb. 7,2003 BUTTER FALLS BELOW SUPPORT •Grade AA butter fell below $1.05/lb. •Butter, cheese, & nonfat now purchased by USDA •CME futures daily. Its been another week in which the government is purchasing butter, cheese and nonfat <Jry milkall three dairy productsfor Open 2392 2432 2446 2432 2436 2484 2514 2532 2396 Volume Openlnt 77638 472861 Open 5640 5630 5610 5544 5450 5274 5314 5350 5000 Volume Open_lnt 93979 211755 Open High Low Last 17650 17650 17650 1780 1742 1776 1760 1725 1758 1748 1737 1718 1680 1642 1590 1575 1570 1587 1602 1592 1625 1625 1627 Volume Qpen_lnt 42312 169120 the dairy price support program. In fact, USDA for the week end ing February 7th, purchased 22.7 million pounds of nonfat dry milk from the West, Central and Eastern markets. It seems every one is producing surplus nonfat dry milk. Grade AA cash butter prices at the Chicago Mercantile Ex change fell below the support price of $1.05 per pound this week. USDA reports that this-is weakening High 2462 2406 2436 2454 2442 2446 2494 2520 Low 2462 2392 2422 2442 2432 2434 2484 2514 2532 2396 2532 2400 High 5590 5740 5730 5694 5600 5454 5346 5350 5350 5000 Low 5590 5640 5630 5610 5540 5420 5270 5304 5350 5000 1709 1675 1628 1582 1566 1568 1587 1602 1592 1625 1625 1627 1732 1693 1652 1600 1588 1585 1587 1602 1592 1625 1625 1627 Lean Hogs Date 02/12/03 *CASH* 02/13/03 Feb 03 02/13/03 Apr 03 02/13/03 May 03 02/13/03 Jun 03 02/13/03 Jul 03 02/13/03 Aug 03 02/13/03 Oct 03 02/13/03 Dec 03 02/13/03 Feb 04 Chge -22 +4 +2 + 6 +2 unch +2 +2 Last 2462 2396 2430 2446 2434 2440 2490 2516 Composite Volume Open_lnt 02/12/03 10161 40852 +2 unch 2532 2400 Live Cattle Date 02/12/03 *CASH* 0 780378037803 -247 0 02/13/03 Feb 03 7840 789577927845 -97 4607 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 Chge -75 + 84 + 90 + 82 + 70 + 60 + 50 +4O + 60 +l6 Last 5590 5716 5714 5690 5600 5450 5304 5320 5350 5000 Composite Volume Open_lnt 02/12/03 21569' 108334 Pork Bellies Date 02/12/03 *CASH* 0 780078007800 +4OO 02/13/03 Feb 03 8360 851083608495 +l2O 02/13/03 Mar 03 8350 854083508505 +133 02/13/03 May 03 8445 8655 8445 8615 +135 02/13/03 Jul 03 8560 8695 8555 8695 +lO5 02/13/03 Aug 03 8405 8405 8405 8405 +95 Chge unch + 32 + 29 1729 1691 1651 1594 1582 1580 1587 1602 1592 1625 1625 1627 Composite Volume Open_lnt 02/12/03 Oats 02/12/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 02/13/03 + 7 + 10 + 10 + 12 Total 02/12/03 the first time this has happened since December 1993. Butter in ventories are double what they were a year ago, and churning is still strong. In addition, we won’t see any boost in demand until the Easter Holidays. The cheese market isn’t doing much better. Block cheese is trad ing at just a penny or two above support levels. Year-end invento ries of cheese are fairly strong. And production for the year 2002 was well above year-ago levels. While the milk supply grew 2.7 percent in 2002, total production of cheese was at 8.4 billion pounds, up 3.8 percent. Surplus milk and dairy products went into cheese production. The futures market at the Chi cago Mercantile Exchange con tinues to weaken. This was particularly obvious after the Commerce Department announced a negative result for the fourth quarter growth rate for the U.S. economy (GDP). The 2003 monthly average CME Class 111 futures price as of De cember 2, 2002 stood at $11.99. In other-words,-airy producers-in n ml. i tnu Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume open Int 0 0 2484 4545 5811 18436 178 2968 798 7819 507 3072 285 2474 64 1049 32 431 2 57 0471847184718 4885 494748854905 5265 530551505295 5690 582056605810 6130 618060556177 5880 597558655942 5725 578057105772 5020 506050005032 4930 496549304952 5370 539053675367 u- UI I Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo , ume open lnt Apr 03 7510 759075107577 Jun 03 6945 694568406907 Aug 03 6635 664065406630 Oct 03 6910 692568556917 Dec 03 7000 704769757042 Feb 04 7200 724271857240 ~ tw« i_ w . Previous Previous Open High Low Last Chge Vo|umeopen Int 0 0 214 508 381 115$ 101 677 5 304 0 28 2675 701 Open *CASH* MAR 03 MAY 03 JUL 03 SEP 03 DEC 03 MAR 04 2072 1940 1840 1706 1610 1660 Volume Open_lnt 1920 6711 early December of last year could have locked in all of their milk production for 2003 at a Class 111 price that was very close to the five-year average. As of February 6, 2003, the 12-month average CME price (reflecting the actual January Class 111 price) deterio rated to $10.84 per cwt. In other words, the market eroded 2003 milk prices by $1.14 per cwt be tween now and then. At this point I would recom mend holding off on any efforts to forward price milk, particular ly for early spring and late fall. The market is looking for any reason to increase milk prices, but simply can’t find any. That’s why the Class 111 prices for the period January May 2003 have become so soft. We are clearly at the bottom of the price cycle. Can Fall 2003 Class 111 milk prices decline even more from current market expec tations? Of course they can. But I’m guessing that there is a great er than even chance that fallmilk prices will improve. The growth in the milk supply cannot contin ue at- its current-pace. And -the -83 -70 -25 -20 -3 +l3 High 2300 2126 1982 1866 1706 1610 1660 Low 2300 2070 1934 1840 1706 1610 1660 economy may stabilize and im prove after the conflict with Iraq is resolved one way or another. Both should help improve dairy market prices. Average Farm Feed Costs for Handy Reference To help farmers across the state to have handy reference of commodity input costs in their feeding operations for DHIA re cord sheets or to develop livestock feed cost data, here’s last week’s average costs of various ingredients as compiled from regional reports across the state of Penn sylvania. Remember, these are averages, so you will need to adjust your figures up or down according to your location and the quality of your crop. Com, No.2y 2.96 bu., 5.30 cwt. Wheat, N 0.2 3.25 bu., 5.43 cwt. Barley, N 0.3 2.15 bu., 4.59 cwt. Oats, N 0.2 2.05 bu., 6.38 cwt. Soybeans, No.l 5.63 bu., 9.41 cwt. Ear Com 99.58 ton, 4.98 cwt. Alfalfa Hay 131.75 ton, 6.59 cwt. Mixed Hay 144.75 ton, 7.24 cwt. Timothy Hay 144.25 ton, 7.21 cwt. 0 11354 60170 20635 8419 4765 2354 637 10270 4508 1191 567 366 60 Chge -52 + 12 + 10 + 12 + 6 unch unch Last 2300 2106 1974 1866 1706 1610 1660
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