Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 1,2003
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, January 30, 2003
Com
01/29/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
01/30/03
DEC
Total
01/29/03
Soybeans
01/28/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
NOV 04
Total
01/28/03
Soybean Meal
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
OCT 03
DEC 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
AUG 04
SEP 04
DEC 04
01/28/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
01/29/03
Total
01/28/03
Jan. 24,2003
MORE BAD NEWS
• Inventory is up!
• Butter entering the CCC.
• Cash prices weak.
End-of-the-year accounting has
been done and it does not look
good. The cold storage numbers
out this week indicate that invento
ries for both butter and cheese are
well ahead of year-ago numbers.
Of course, a year ago wasn’t ex
High
2440
2372
2400
2424
2414
2422
2474
2490
2500
Open
2350
2372
2402
2400
2402
2454
2480
2494
2410
2410
Volume Open_lnt
44171 460270
High
5660
5710
5664
5630
5544
5384
5300
5300
5300
5024
Open
5710
5664
5630
5544
5384
5290
5300
5280
5020
Volume Openlnt
44104 196797
Open High
17300
1722
1710
1693
1655
1625
1592
1579
1573
1590
1590
1595
1600
1605
1600
1720
1710
1692
1655
1625
1585
1577
1573
1590
1590
1595
1595
1595
1600
Volume Open_lnt
24353 160971
actly a boom time for milk produc
tion. Let’s compare the Dec. 31,
2002 inventory numbers with a
five-year average of end-of-year in
ventory numbers. That way we can
get a more accurate read on where
things stand.
Butter inventory at the end of
2002 stood at 157.5 million pounds.
December inventory for 2001 was
55.9 million pounds. But recall that
butter production in 2001 was
Last
2440
2370
2396
2420
2412
2416
2470
2490
2496
Low
2440
2336
2364
2394
2400
2394
2454
2480
2494
2392
2394
Last
5660
5612
5572
5542
5472
5346
5246
5272
5300
5000
Low
5660
5604
5564
5540
5470
5344
5240
5264
5280
5000
Last
17300
1687
1676
bow
17300
1683
1671
1660
1630
1600
1565
1555
1560
1570
1575
1575
1595
1595
1600
1661
1630
1601
1567
1558
1560
1570
1575
1575
1600
1605
1600
short, so end-of-year inventories
were likely distorted. However, the
five-year average for commercial
butter inventories is 57.7 billion
pounds. Anyway you look at it,
there is a lot of butter on hand.
The story isn’t so distorted for
cheese. American cheese invento
ries at the end of 2002 were at
495.8 million pounds, compared to
inventory of 449.1 million pounds
at the end of 2001. Turns out the
five-year average for the end of De
cember was 466.6 million pounds.
So, for American cheese, end-of
year inventories for 2002 were just
6.2 percent ahead of the five-year
average. That’s not too bad.
Total cheese inventories at the
end of 2002 were 733.4 million
pounds, compared to 660 million
pounds in 2001. The five-year aver
age was 648 million pounds. Thus,
total cheese inventories at the end
of 2002 were 11.1 percent ahead of
a year ago, and 13.2 percent ahead
of the 5-year average. Most of this
was likely due to higher inventory
levels of Italian cheeses.
The category “other natural
cheese,” which is mainly Italian
cheese, was up 27.8 percent in De-
Lean Hogs
Date
01/29/03 *CASH*
01/30/03 Feb 03
01/30/03 Apr 03
01/30/03 May 03
01/30/03 Jun 03
01/30/03 Jul 03
01/30/03 Aug 03-
01/30/03 Oct 03
01/30/03 Dec 03
01/30/03 Feb 04
Chge
-24
+ 14
+ 14
+ 6
+4
+ 12
+ 10
+ 10
+2
Composite Volume Open_lnt
01/29/03 12368 41914
-10
Live Cattle
Date
01/29/03 *CASH* 0 775477547754 +254
01/30/03 Febo3 8142 821781408207 +B2
01/30/03 Apr 03 7965 800579407977 -5
01/30/03 Jun 03 7180 721071627202 +5
01/30/03 Aug 03 6902 694569006915 -7
01/30/03 Oct 03 7110 714771057127 -3
01/30/03 Dec 03 7200 722572007210 -2
01/30/03 Feb 04 7340 736573407360 +lO
Chge
+ 60
-120
-112
-110
-104
-92
-60
-52
-54
-22
Composite Volume Open_lnt
01/29/03 24885 113364
Pork Bellies
Date
01/29/03 *CASH* 0760076007600+400
01/30/03 Febo3 8275 831081658255 +lO
01/30/03 Mar 03 8250 832081958260 +3B
01/30/03 May 03 8405 842083028320 +lO
01/30/03 Jul 03 8400 847083808440 +2O
01/30/03 Augo3 8140 816581408165 +65
Composite Volume Openjnt
01/29/03 960 3079
Oats
01/29/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
01/30/03
Total
ai/29/03
ri „• u i » , f"’u Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume open Int
0 0
4567 8319
6024 17976
273 2854
702 7407
431 2236
245 2012
120 814
4 247
2 48
0 474947494749
5055 508050075025
5700 573056155652
6085 609060156037
6360 639763076362
6170 618060906122
5875 589058105845
5197 520051355140
5085 509050225022
5390 539053505372
~ , , T Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo , ume open
0 0
9128 26201
10819 55159
3255 20343
910 6657
450 2839
275 1874
48 291
~ u . li i Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume 0peI)
0 0
453 1326
1 398 967
79 492
26 267
4 26
Open
*CASH*
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
1994
1942
1840
1660
1640
1650
Volume Open_lnt
2564 6751
cember 2002 relative to the five
year average. Clearly consumers
were less interested in pizza in
2002 than in prior years.
This week marks another bad
milestone. Butter entered the U.S.
price support program for the first
time since 1995. During the week
Jan. 20-24 of this year, about
380,835 pounds of butter from the
West entered the Commodity
Credit Corporation. Butter wasn’t
alone. Cheese and nonfat dry milk
also entered the dairy price support
program. For the first time in
many years, all three dairy commo
dities are being purchased under
the support price program.
So what does this mean for milk
prices in 2003? Class 111 futures on
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
sank under the cold storage news.
September 2003 Class 111 futures,
which were about $13.38 per CWT
as we entered this year, are now
just $12.87 per CWT. And the av
erage Class 111 price for all of 2003
at the CME about a month ago was
$11.90 per CWT. This week the
annual average Class 111 CME
price fell to $11.31 per CWT, down
almost $0.60 per CWT for the year.
High
2184
2024
1966
1854
1670
1640
1650
LOW
2184
1994
1942
1840
1660
1640
1650
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 2.94 bu„ 5.26 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.24 bu., 5.39 cwt,
Barley, N 0.3 2.16 bu., 4.63 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 2.03 bu., 6.33 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 5.55 bu., 9.26 cwt.
Ear Corn 88.91 ton, 4.45 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 155.00 ton, 7.75 cwt.
Mixed Hay 140.50 ton, 7.03 cwt.
Timothy Hay 155.00 ton, 7.75 cwt.
Chge
-70
+ 30
+ 24
+ 14
+ 14
+ 20
+ 10
Last
2184
2020
1960
1854
1670
1640
1650