Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 30, 2002
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG.
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Wednesday, November 27. 2002
Com
11/26/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
*CASH*
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
MAY 04
JUL 04
11/27/02
DEC
Total
11/26/02
Soybeans
11/26/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
♦CASH*
JAN 03
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
JAN 04
MAR 04
NOV 04
Total
11/26/02
Soybean Meal
*CASH*
DEC 02
JAN 03
11/26/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
Total
11/26/02
Nov. 22,2002
MARKET REPORTS
LOOK BLEAK
• Cow numbers higher.
• Butter and cheese stocks
high.
• Futures prices look better.
The market news does not look
favorable to milk prices, at least
not for the rest of the year. The
milk. «praditftitt» -sKiwa
High
2482
2432
2460
2474
2494
2446
2420
2476
2486
2490
Open
2424
2456
2470
2484
2440
2414
2470
2486
2490
2410
2410
Volume Open_lnt
122984 472932
High
5595
5810
5764
5674
5630
5500
5292
5134
5112
5120
4900
Open
5780
5740
5650
5594
5500
5292
5124
5112
5120
4900
Volume Open_lnt
33166 214019
Open High Low Last
16400 16400 16400
1683 1666 1671
1696 1677 1684
1675
1690
1694
1675
1660
1630
1595
1550
1540
1521
1531
1555
1595
1694
1675
1660
1630
1600
1550
1540
1521
1531
1555
1595
Volume Qpen_lnt
45587 136563
cow numbers in U.S. dairy herds
are on the rise. And the cold stor
age report indicates cheese and
butter stocks are well ahead of
year-ago levels. More milk, more
cheese, more butter, and lower
milk prices!
First, the milk production re
port. October milk production
was up just 2.3 percent over a
Low
2482
2404
2440
2452
2464
2432
2404
2462
2486
2490
Last
2482
2406
2442
2454
2470
2432
2406
2464
2486
2490
2400
2400
Last
5595
5772
5726
5622
5566
5470
5292
5076
5112
5120
4874
Low
5595
5760
5714
5620
5560
5470
5292
5070
5112
5120
4874
1676
1655
1643
1613
1578
1523
1520
1521
1531
1555
1595
1681
1657
1647
1615
1578
1523
1523
1521
1531
1555
1595
lower than in previous months,
which is a good sign. But a closer
look reveals a disturbing fact:
cow numbers increased 8,000
head above the previous month.
The market was expecting cow
numbers to continue a downward
trend that started in September.
It is not a good idea to disappoint
the market.
Nine of 20 states in USDA’s
list of top dairy states increased
cow numbers in October 2002
over October 2001. Most of those
states are in the West. But some
are from the Midwest and East;
New York, Ohio, Illinois, lowa,
and Virginia.
The cold storage report indi
cated that both butter and cheese
inventories in October were well
ahead of year-ago levels. Butter
stocks, at 164.4 million pounds,
are 63 percent higher than a year
ago. American cheese stocks were
at 505.5 million pounds, about 9
Lean Hogs
Date
11/26/02 *CASH*
11/27/02 Dec 02
11/27/02 Feb 03
11/27/02 Apr 03
11/27/02 May 03
11/27/02 Jun 03
11/27/02 Jul 03
11/27/02 Aug 03
11/27/02 Oct 03
11/27/02 Dec 03
Chge
-10
-14
-4
-10
-10
-4
unch
unch
unch
unch
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/26/02 8177 47025
unch
Live Cattle
Date
11/26/02 *CASH* 0710071007100
11/27/02 Dec 02 7467 75007465 7497
11/27/02 Feb 03 7855 7872 7835 7870
11/27/02 Apr 03 7795 781077657802
11/27/02 Jun 03 7195 7227 7177 7222
11/27/02 Aug 03 7030 706770157050
11/27/02 Oct 03 7140 720071407157
Chge
-13
+42
+ 32
+ 14
+ 6
-4
+2
-24
-16
-30
+2
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/26/02 14563 129342
Pork Bellies
Date
11/26/02 *CASH* 0 740074007400 -200
11/27/02 Feb 03 8420 8650 84208612 +252
11/27/02 Mar 03 8340 8545 8340 8505 +250
11/27/02 May 03 8487 56508487 8600 +2lO
11/27/02 Jul 03 *BBOO 8820 8800 8800 +250
11/27/02 Aug 03 8350 8600 8350 8600 +3OO
Chge
-50
+ 3
+ 3
unch
-5
-3
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/26/02 472 2328
Oats
-7
-12
11/26/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
11/27/02
-6
unch
unch
unch
-5
Total
11/26/02
„ TW . . T , . Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|<jme openln(
0 0
3655 16699
2921 17825
1211 5773
128 1487
127 3587
78 999
15 548
38 87
4 20
0412941294129
4640469045954675
5400 548253855410
5870 593058655897
6200 624062006220
6525 659065256582
6257 629562556295
6040 606560256035
5267 529552655280
5190 519551905192
„ ... . ¥ . Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|umeopen Int
0 0
6617 27754
4413 51999
2011 28074
1089 16391
407 4452
26 672
r\ n- ui i 4 ru Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Volumeopen Int
0 0
442 2007
22 157
4 63
1 91
2 10
Open
*CASH*
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
1912
1982
1936
1794
1540
1570
1580
Volume Qpen_lnt
2201 7257
Total cheese inventories at the
end of October were ahead 8 per
cent relative to a year ago. These
stocks, however, don’t yet reflect
the inventory drawdown that
could be expected from the holi
day season. So there is still hope!
USDA announced the Class I
base milk price for December. It’s
$10.52 per CWT, down 8 cents
per CWT from last month. That
implies a Boston Class I price of
$13.77 per CWT and therefore a
December 2002 MILC payment
rate of $1.43 per CWT. Thus, a
higher MILC payment rate will
help offset lower market prices.
This bad news may be short
lived. The futures markets are
showing that Class 111 prices will
rise above $lO per CWT starting
in January and peak at a robust
$13.16 per CWT in September
2003. One can interpret this to
mean that the market is expect
ing the milk supply to slow down
-463
+95
+55
+65
+35
+62
+55
+35
+2O
+2
High
2062
1940
2010
1960
1796
1540
1570
1580
Low
2062
1912
1982
1936
1792
1540
1570
1580
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week's average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 3.01 bu., 5.39 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 3.51 bu., 5.87 cwt
Barley, N 0.3 —1.91 bu., 4.08 cwt
Oats, N 0.2 —1.85 bu., 5.77 cwt
Soybeans, No.l 5.35 bu., 8.93 cwt
Ear Com 76.73 ton, 3.84 cwt
Alfalfa Hay 131.75 ton, 6.59 cwt
Mixed Hay —129.25 ton, 6.46 cwt
Timothy Hay —128.75 ton, 6.44 cwt
I.*** ■**>*.**<»»■»*MM»»»■**,»»**'•»»
Chge
+ 6
+22
+24
+ 14
Last
2062
1940
2006
1944
1792
1540
1570
1580
+ 42
+ 10
unch
unch