Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, August 3, 2002
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids; Thursday, August 1. 2002
Com
07/31/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
*CASH*
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
JUL 04
DEC 04
Total
07/31/02
Soybeans
07/31/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
Total
07/31/02
Soybean Meal
*CASH*
AUG 02
SEP 02
OCT 02
DEC 02
07/31/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
Total
07/31/02
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
July 25,2002
Dairy Futures Take
A Nose Dive
• Milk prices get worse.
• Fall highs evaporate.
• Weather and demand main
drivers.
The dairy futures at the Chica
go Mercantile Exchange took a
nosedive this past week. Septem
ber Class 111 futures, which were
trading at $13.50 per CWT in the
spring, fell to new lows of $lO.lO
per CWT. Near-term contract
months for July and August are
below $lO per CWT. My inter
pretation of this is that farm gate
milk prices will continue to de
teriorate through August, and
that a fall recovery will be
limited.
There are four main factors
iag are working to depress milk
High
2492
2556
2654
2700
2724
2734
2590
2494
2540
2580
2446
Open
2524
2614
2670
2694
2714
2590
2484
2540
2580
2446
Volume Open_lnt
105731 483924
High
5575
5870
5754
5564
5554
5530
5480
5470
5310
5200
5170
Open
5780
5650
5450
5450
5440
5404
5404
5310
5200
5160
Volume Qpen_Xnt
88282 203580
Open High
18600
1905
1855
1783
1755
1860
1805
1735
1700
1740
1722
1698
1695
1685
1670
1650
1640
1695
1695
1680
1675
1675
1655
1650
1640
Volume Open_lnt
48594 129310
1. Growing cow numbers in U.S. economy or changes in con- support program as early as this
the West, and a recovery in milk sumer tastes. week. If that occurs, then assume
production per cow The break in the weather may that the cheese industry thinks
2. Weak U.S. economy, which have sparked the decline in dairy prices will be depressed for the
is depressing cheese sales futures. Hot, humid weather was next few months.
3. Steady imports of butterfat replaced in recent days with Butter prices at the Chicago
and nonfat solids much cooler temperatures. In Mercantile Exchange are surpris
4. A return to cooler weather fact, daily highs in the Northeast ingly above support levels, trad
across much of the U.S. and Northwest are in the 70s and ing at $1.03-$1.05 per pound this
Yum! Brands, a company that in the 80s in the Upper Midwest, week despite significant invento- _ .
owns a number of fast-food California, and the West. ries in cold storage. me *" r ’ _ ese 316 avera 8 es > so you
chains, including Pizza Hut, re- Cheese prices at the Chicago Opportunities for dairy pro- ™ adjust your flgures up or
ported that same-store sales for Mercantile Exchange are rela- ducers to forward contact or ow ? accor mg *° your location and the
Pizza Hut in the U.S. declined 3 tively weak. Block cheese was hedge milk for the fall months t ' ual,t y of y° urcro P
percent in the second quarter of trading at $1.04-$1.05 per pound have all but evaporated. Produc- Com, No.2y 2.5ibu.,4.49cwt.
this year. That reflects less use this week, which is below the ers should hold off for now. It is Wheat, N 0.2 2.94 bu., 4.91 cwt.
for pizza cheese. This was likely support price of $1.1314 per still possible prices could Barley, N 0.3 —1.63 bu., 3.49 cwt.
related to the weakness in the pound. Cheese processors have strengthen for the fall months. Oats,No.2 — i.7ibu. 5.33 cwt
U.S. economy. That said, same- been reluctant to sell to the gov- There is talk that low grain car- Soybeans No 1— s
store sales at Taco Bell and KFC, eminent under the dairy price ryover stocks and drought in the F r ' ’ u ” ' cwt
which are also owned by Yum! support program since there are Western Combelt states could om ‘ ton > 3 - 45c *t
Brands, were higher relative to a costs associated with doing so tighten up grain prices. That Atfalfa Hay i0e.25 ton, 5.31 cwt.
year ago. Thus it is unclear (about $0.05 per pound). That would possibly drive milk prices Mixed Hay — lll.OO ton, 5.55 cwt.
whether pjieese use in.-, vsaid„tha|e*are nanorrlhafrofreesc v c • 4.69 cwt.
> PWV # W.V • f v.« • f M•■ • • • • i
LOW
2492
2450
2540
2590
2630
2670
2540
2450
2514
2554
2340
Last
2492
2492
2586
2632
2670
2690
2550
2470
2524
2570
2360
Last
5575
5684
5586
5414
5410
5412
5364
5340
5310
5150
5070
Low
5575
5580
5500
5320
5320
5300
5270
5260
5310
5150
5070
Low
18600
1800
1764
1693
1667
Last
18600
1829
1786
1717
1690
1684
1673
1649
1650
1630
1615
1630
1630
1667
1650
1630
1630
1615
1610
1630
1630
Lean Hogs
Date
07/31/02 *CASH*
08/01/02 Aug 02
08/01/02 Oct 02
08/01/02 Dec 02
08/01/02 Feb 03
08/01/02 Apr 03
08/01/02 May 03
08/01/02 Jun 03
08/01/02 Jul 03
08/01/02 Aug 03
Chge
+ 122
+2O
+ 22
+ 14
+ 10
+ 6
-4
Composite Volume Open_lnt
07/31/02 5872 30494
-4
unch
-70
Live Cattle
Date
07/31/02 *CASH*
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
Chge
+ 160
+ 10
+ 46
+ 50
+ 30
+ 36
+ 16
+ 20
+ 20
-20
-14
Composite Volume Open_lnt
07/31/02 15111 93260
Pork Bellies
Date
07/31/02 *CASH* 0 750075007500-1000
08/01/02 Aug 02 6240 624060156015 -300
08/01/02 Feb 03 6340 635060926092 -300
08/01/02 Mar 03 6030603060306030 -300
08/01/02 May 03 6160 616061606160 -300
08/01/02 Jul 03 6137 613761376137 -300
Chge
+750
+ 6
+22
+22
+23
Composite Volume Openjnt
07/31/02 606 1224
+ 16
+7
Oats
07/31/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
08/01/02
+8
unch
-5
+ 15
+2O
Total
07/31/02
~ U- ui Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo , ume open _ Int
0 0
2457 7323
2684 13892
586 7506
104 1271
26 247
3 58
7 132
4 55
0 7
0 523552355235
5150 515049955015
4085 412039703977
3950 397538853907
4400442243554390
4870 491048404875
5590 561555805615
5750 577057405770
5720 575557205755
5570 559555155515
„ . w t Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume open
0 0
0 623962396239 unch
Aug 02 6490 649064256445 -55
Oct 02 6750 676066826707 -68
Dec 02 6877 688068306852 -30
Feb 03 6950 695569206947 -3
Apr 03 7005 700769827005 -5
Jun 03 6600 660565806597 -5
Aug 03 6630 664066306640 unch
it* u t t * Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Volume Qpen
0 0
392 780
211 435
I 6
0 2
1 1
Open
*CASH*
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
1826
1754
1734
1710
1690
Volume Qpon_lnt
2384 10897
-10
-5
+2O
High
1866
1860
1780
1734
1710
1690
Low
1866
1750
1684
1660
1670
1660
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
6482
5729
1699
780
390
30
15475
40591
21673
9780
4414
1304
23
Chge
+44
-4
-6
-6
-34
Last
1866
1780
1700
1684
1670
1660